ATL: EARL - Models

[Blown Away]

0Z Euro showing a really unfavorable upper air environment, lots of shear. Current map shows how shear looks at the moment, and it's pretty rough.

https://i.imgur.com/UtGKiGe.png

https://i.imgur.com/76tcqCz.png

meanwhile, development chances keep increasing, nhc likes it 30/70

Yes, decent GFS W shift in long range, there is the sudden stop near Bahamas then yanked NE. Tells me there is a very fine line between recurve and going W into Bahamas & CONUS.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro showing a really unfavorable upper air environment, lots of shear. Current map shows how shear looks at the moment, and it's pretty rough.

https://i.imgur.com/UtGKiGe.png

https://i.imgur.com/76tcqCz.png

meanwhile, development chances keep increasing, nhc likes it 30/70

They have the FSU super ensembles which are almost always superior to what we can see. Dorian and Irma both went through the models stay weak phase. Always instructive to look at the old model threads, and one of the reasons I post lots of images and, selfishly, what I'm thinking at the moment. So far imgur (free account) has kept all my old images.

[tolakram]

UKMET 0Z

[cycloneye]

[blp]

The Ukie seems to have it firmly entrenched under the ridge as well. Not good.

[Blown Away]

06z

12z

Subtle W guidance shift happening today.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS showed very weak steering when it started to bottom out over the Bahamas.

00z Euro because it had it much weaker had it drifting west near SFL.

Looks like there's potential for a US landfall regardless of intensity.

[skyline385]

12Z early track guidance with intensities, HMON has it at 50 knots so hurricane models seem to be picking up on it




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[Spacecoast]

06z GEFS:

06Z GFS:

[Blown Away]

06z GFS showed very weak steering when it started to bottom out over the Bahamas.

00z Euro because it had it much weaker had it drifting west near SFL.

Looks like there's potential for a US landfall regardless of intensity.

12z GFS initialized SW of 06z. Let’s see if that makes any difference.

[Fancy1001]

06z GFS showed very weak steering when it started to bottom out over the Bahamas.

00z Euro because it had it much weaker had it drifting west near SFL.

Looks like there's potential for a US landfall regardless of intensity.

12z GFS initialized SW of 06z. Let’s see if that makes any difference.

Did you mean the Icon

[Fancy1001]

06z GFS showed very weak steering when it started to bottom out over the Bahamas.

00z Euro because it had it much weaker had it drifting west near SFL.

Looks like there's potential for a US landfall regardless of intensity.

12z GFS initialized SW of 06z. Let’s see if that makes any difference.

nevemind, for some reason i thought your post was at 10:43

[Iceresistance]

06z GFS showed very weak steering when it started to bottom out over the Bahamas.

00z Euro because it had it much weaker had it drifting west near SFL.

Looks like there's potential for a US landfall regardless of intensity.

12z GFS initialized SW of 06z. Let’s see if that makes any difference.

Did you mean the Icon

The GFS did initiate SW compared to 6z.

[Fancy1001]

12z GFS initialized SW of 06z. Let’s see if that makes any difference.

Did you mean the Icon

The GFS did initiate SW compared to 6z.

Yeah, I was confused because I misread the post time.

[Iceresistance]

Don't you even dare ICON . . .

[skyline385]

Well this 12Z ICON run is going to get people talking, 953mb at 180 hrs

[AutoPenalti]

what does ICON have at 500mb level?

[aspen]

12z GFS doesn’t have a good convective initialization. It shows much more wispy convection and not the blob over the developing LLC.

[SohCahToa]

Well this 12Z ICON run is going to get people talking, 953mb at 180 hrs

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh120-180.gif

Is that a left turn I see at the end of that run?

[Kingarabian]

Well this 12Z ICON run is going to get people talking, 953mb at 180 hrs

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh120-180.gif

Is that a left turn I see at the end of that run?

Decent SW dip on the ICON to finish the run.

12Z GFS through hour 120 is further SW compared to its previous runs. Will have track implications probably.