2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3181 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:16 pm

I also am wondering what the possibility is for this season to not only be backloaded, but also a season that features a rather low number of NSs (so like 11-14 perhaps) but a high ratio of NSs to hurricanes/major hurricanes. It's been so long since the last storm that I just feel that all of this latent ocean heat and untapped waters could really give fuel to anything that tries to form in the deep tropics, and us entering the month of September kind of reinforces that belief of mine.

In other words, a 1961-like season where the season really "avenges" a very inactive July/August during the September/October timeframe wouldn't really stun me.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3182 Postby MHC Tracking » Sat Aug 27, 2022 2:49 am

Hammy wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Very quiet Augusts in the Atlantic (< 5 ACE) and how September followed, since 1950:

1967: 0 ACE in August, 97 ACE in September


In all my comparisons with prior years, this is one I managed to overlook--a year dominated by slow-moving, high latitude monsoonal waves with dry air to the north, and multiple storms moved northwest from Africa.

Arlene's wave on August 25, three days before becoming a depression (on the far eastern edge)
https://i.imgur.com/JGrgtYv.png

and Beulah's, on August 31 (five days before developing)
https://i.imgur.com/hzwf15k.png

and Chloe's wave as it exited
https://i.imgur.com/MgNMK3k.png

Not to say the season will end up as quiet in terms of total named storms, but a good analog for August/September setup

Well ofc 1967 had multiple unnamed storms, and Chloe would likely be a major hurricane today given the notes in HURDAT about it. Would be a little above average in ACE too
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3183 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 27, 2022 5:55 am

Looks like the TUTT is reestablishing itself temporarily over the Atlantic north of the monsoon trough.
Monsoon trough is rotating around so that the shear may strip the northeastern lobe of that wave.
Kinks in the ITCZ usually jump north a few degrees when they close off and seperate, so watching for that signal for the southwestern lobe.

High pressure over the western states should pull the BOC wave inland over Mexico before it becomes invest worthy but surface pressures are down to 29.91 at the BOC buoy.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3184 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Aug 27, 2022 9:49 am

Could we make it through September 15th with no NSs?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3185 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Aug 27, 2022 10:00 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Could we make it through September 15th with no NSs?


Highly unlikely imho. September is bound to produce something, at least in the first half. There’s a reason why we have not had any recent seasons, let alone seasons since record keepings really began that featured no NSs in that timeframe. Climatology is simply too strong of a force to really violate in those regards imho.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3186 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:12 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Could we make it through September 15th with no NSs?


No. And you probably know better.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3187 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 27, 2022 2:11 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Could we make it through September 15th with no NSs?


Not even 1914--the year with literally one storm--went from August 25-September 15 with nothing. Through the entire satellite era, even if you exclude August, the only years that had nothing form in the first half of September were 1985 and 1992 (the latter being debatable)--and both years had major hurricanes in August, so that was the quiet point between two active points.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3188 Postby chaser1 » Sat Aug 27, 2022 2:16 pm

Clogged arteries or circulatory issues? I'm getting a sense that there's more going on in the Atlantic then SAL mid-level moisture issues. Certainly, far beyond the extent of any displaced African monsoonal flow too. Two things about the current complex disturbance around 40W just have me perplexed. Accurate or not, models last night and into today are coming into better agreement for this disturbance. What I find baffling is the incredibly slow westerly progression of disturbances AND the clearly devoid equatorial southerly moisture feeding into these disturbances (or even establishing a reasonable semblance of the ITCZ period). No, this has nothing to do with TW's emerging off the African coast either too far north or too far south either. You want to blame it on the African monsoon, fine..... but to the extent that surface convergence from such a displacement would somehow continue to interrupt low level convergence all the way to 50W/60W? I beg the question because current models seem to suggest that very little deepening with our present disturbance will occur until reaching that point. Equally strange is the "October-like" westward motion that is SO out of character for late August. We've seen TUTT's, cut-off lows, and both sharp or shallow mid Atlantic troughs before but those have largely proven to be transitory. On the other hand, where seasonal long wave patterns have seemed to establish themselves over the Central or Western Atlantic, beyond the short-term COL that might occur between "end of ridge" and trough we would commonly see a more poleward acceleration of forward motion for most marginally established mid-level disturbances.

As for our present lab rat, the yet unclassified disturbance around 40W might well serve as a decent specimen to focus on regarding these (and other) atmospheric conditions that have been unexpectedly at play thus far this season. I am curious about seeing if an unusually weak low latitude surface pressure gradient is at play resulting in less surface inflow (thus much less convective activity). Even moreso, I am especially curious about some larger mitigating factor that seems to have interrupted the typical rich tropical moisture feed from the south that might be occurring in tandem with already identified mid-level dryness. We're used to seeing how some E. Caribbean storms or disturbances have been disrupted due to decreased surface convergence as a result of South America but this similar effect seems to be at play across a good deal of the basin.

As we quickly approach September 1st, it just seems that the science of better understanding and forecasting would be better served and a far better use of expending this season's Recon budget allocation, then repetitious recon flights into little to no landfall risk hurricanes just to verify whether they've crossed the Cat 2 threshold into "Major" hurricane threshold. "That" game of inches debate would drive some stat nurds crazy but honestly offers little to nothing toward better understanding climate pattern change, seasonal variations, causation or mitigating impact of conditions during an otherwise anticipated very active hurricane season, or potential near/mid-term landfall risk analysis or issuance of warnings.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3189 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Aug 27, 2022 10:59 pm

There are now four area of interests on the NHC graphic. September is just around the corner. I'm curious how active the Atlantic can get. Reminds me somewhat of 2010.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3190 Postby skyline385 » Sun Aug 28, 2022 12:04 am

chaser1 wrote:Clogged arteries or circulatory issues? I'm getting a sense that there's more going on in the Atlantic then SAL mid-level moisture issues. Certainly, far beyond the extent of any displaced African monsoonal flow too. Two things about the current complex disturbance around 40W just have me perplexed. Accurate or not, models last night and into today are coming into better agreement for this disturbance. What I find baffling is the incredibly slow westerly progression of disturbances AND the clearly devoid equatorial southerly moisture feeding into these disturbances (or even establishing a reasonable semblance of the ITCZ period). No, this has nothing to do with TW's emerging off the African coast either too far north or too far south either. You want to blame it on the African monsoon, fine..... but to the extent that surface convergence from such a displacement would somehow continue to interrupt low level convergence all the way to 50W/60W? I beg the question because current models seem to suggest that very little deepening with our present disturbance will occur until reaching that point. Equally strange is the "October-like" westward motion that is SO out of character for late August. We've seen TUTT's, cut-off lows, and both sharp or shallow mid Atlantic troughs before but those have largely proven to be transitory. On the other hand, where seasonal long wave patterns have seemed to establish themselves over the Central or Western Atlantic, beyond the short-term COL that might occur between "end of ridge" and trough we would commonly see a more poleward acceleration of forward motion for most marginally established mid-level disturbances.

As for our present lab rat, the yet unclassified disturbance around 40W might well serve as a decent specimen to focus on regarding these (and other) atmospheric conditions that have been unexpectedly at play thus far this season. I am curious about seeing if an unusually weak low latitude surface pressure gradient is at play resulting in less surface inflow (thus much less convective activity). Even moreso, I am especially curious about some larger mitigating factor that seems to have interrupted the typical rich tropical moisture feed from the south that might be occurring in tandem with already identified mid-level dryness. We're used to seeing how some E. Caribbean storms or disturbances have been disrupted due to decreased surface convergence as a result of South America but this similar effect seems to be at play across a good deal of the basin.

As we quickly approach September 1st, it just seems that the science of better understanding and forecasting would be better served and a far better use of expending this season's Recon budget allocation, then repetitious recon flights into little to no landfall risk hurricanes just to verify whether they've crossed the Cat 2 threshold into "Major" hurricane threshold. "That" game of inches debate would drive some stat nurds crazy but honestly offers little to nothing toward better understanding climate pattern change, seasonal variations, causation or mitigating impact of conditions during an otherwise anticipated very active hurricane season, or potential near/mid-term landfall risk analysis or issuance of warnings.

Not sure if you read about it but the recent climate bill had a pretty substantial allocation for NOAA which included:

- $200 million for NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and forecasting for weather and climate.
- $190 million for new NOAA supercomputing capacity.
- $100 million for NOAA to acquire a G-550 hurricane hunter jet.


With this new funding and the planned supercomputer upgrade (currently in testing), I am hoping that it will have atleast some positive affect on our forecasting abilities.

Also, there was a recent paper which talked about how recon substantially improves models' forecasting abilities as well:
https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2022/07/0 ... recasting/
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3191 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 28, 2022 8:09 am

91L might be the last straw signaling an active or inactive season. If it becomes something significant, it means the Atlantic isn’t that unfavorable and we could get a near to slightly above average season. If it stays weak or doesn’t develop at all, and nothing else stronger than a struggling weak to moderate TS develops in the next 1-2 weeks, then something is without question wrong with the basin and we’re probably getting a below-average season.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3192 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 28, 2022 12:36 pm

We have a different kind of early September ahead in my opinion. 200mb VPA’s, while close but not 100% optimum, are best today and tomorrow (much more favorable toward the eastern side of the basin).

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/

But when you look out to 1 and 2 week forecasts, and if they are right, it’s not as favorable.

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html

Additionally with the MJO expected back in the circle by the end of the month, there are neutral days at best. So like I was saying last week, if we get a burst out of this 5-6 day period in Phases 1 and 2, it was probably 3-4 storms max. 3 looks more realistic. The whole ocean opens up in September though, so there can be named storms around the peak just because. That should take us to the 8th or 9th of September and more likely an F storm named by that point. Then we will have to see what MJO does and if waves are moving across the ocean faster so that there are more of them available for development the last 20 days of September.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3193 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 28, 2022 12:57 pm

It’s possible the rest of September gets shut out by Typhoon Hinnamnor. If it does recurve, it could enhance a TUTT like what Maysak and Haishen did in 2020, and unlike that year, there’s no super favorable base state to save this season from being sheared and dried out.

If the Atlantic is this unfavorable during a strong La Niña year, then we could be in for a near-record quiet season next year, since a neutral to warm ENSO (maybe even an El Niño) is by far the most likely outcome.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3194 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:13 pm

aspen wrote:It’s possible the rest of September gets shut out by Typhoon Hinnamnor. If it does recurve, it could enhance a TUTT like what Maysak and Haishen did in 2020, and unlike that year, there’s no super favorable base state to save this season from being sheared and dried out.

If the Atlantic is this unfavorable during a strong La Niña year, then we could be in for a near-record quiet season next year, since a neutral to warm ENSO (maybe even an El Niño) is by far the most likely outcome.

I seriously doubt this. First, its one typhoon, second, September cannot be shut out, especially in a la Nina. Another issue is that its near impossible to tell what ENSO state we will be in next year. just because I flipped heads 3 times in a row doesn't mean that I am more likely to flip tails on the next flip. Its a gross simplification of ENSO but its a good one.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3195 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:20 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
aspen wrote:It’s possible the rest of September gets shut out by Typhoon Hinnamnor. If it does recurve, it could enhance a TUTT like what Maysak and Haishen did in 2020, and unlike that year, there’s no super favorable base state to save this season from being sheared and dried out.

If the Atlantic is this unfavorable during a strong La Niña year, then we could be in for a near-record quiet season next year, since a neutral to warm ENSO (maybe even an El Niño) is by far the most likely outcome.

I seriously doubt this. First, its one typhoon, second, September cannot be shut out, especially in a la Nina. Another issue is that its near impossible to tell what ENSO state we will be in next year. just because I flipped heads 3 times in a row doesn't mean that I am more likely to flip tails on the next flip. Its a gross simplification of ENSO but its a good one.

Should’ve worded the first part better: I mean the rest of September in the MDR would get shut down by a typhoon-pumped TUTT. This season’s best shot might be in October when the ITCZ, in theory, should be in a favorable position to send waves into the Caribbean like 2020.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3196 Postby psyclone » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:35 pm

You know it's really bad when the rot of this season has folks already scrapping next year! Oh my. Enjoy the low stress state of the tropics while we have it 8-).
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3197 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:51 pm

psyclone wrote:You know it's really bad when the rot of this season has folks already scrapping next year! Oh my. Enjoy the low stress state of the tropics while we have it 8-).


Already canceling next year too :lol: Although I do think we are going to be entering a period of quieter hurricane seasons cause the +AMO is bound to end sooner rather than later.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3198 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:55 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:
psyclone wrote:You know it's really bad when the rot of this season has folks already scrapping next year! Oh my. Enjoy the low stress state of the tropics while we have it 8-).


Already canceling next year too :lol: Although I do think we are going to be entering a period of quieter hurricane seasons cause the +AMO is bound to end sooner rather than later.


But how exactly would you know next year won't be some like neutral or Modoki El Nino year that ends up with a surprisingly active Atlantic? :lol:

2023's hurricane season is genuinely too far out in time to judge imho
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3199 Postby Teban54 » Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:07 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:
psyclone wrote:You know it's really bad when the rot of this season has folks already scrapping next year! Oh my. Enjoy the low stress state of the tropics while we have it 8-).


Already canceling next year too :lol: Although I do think we are going to be entering a period of quieter hurricane seasons cause the +AMO is bound to end sooner rather than later.


But how exactly would you know next year won't be some like neutral or Modoki El Nino year that ends up with a surprisingly active Atlantic? :lol:

2023's hurricane season is genuinely too far out in time to judge imho

Or like 2018 - an El Nino year without any tricks that still ended up above average and destructive.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3200 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:09 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:
psyclone wrote:You know it's really bad when the rot of this season has folks already scrapping next year! Oh my. Enjoy the low stress state of the tropics while we have it 8-).


Already canceling next year too :lol: Although I do think we are going to be entering a period of quieter hurricane seasons cause the +AMO is bound to end sooner rather than later.


People have been saying that for 10 years. Eventually it will happen. But we don’t even know whether or not things have to be adjusted if weather has been affected beyond what has happened in normal cycles of the past. Stay tuned for sure. 1970 to 1985 were mostly boring seasons with an occasional big storm affecting the US. And then from 85-95 there were maybe a few more hits closer to home, but it was usually slow. I just wonder if we get another super nino after a La Niña and cool-neutral years if the temperature base doesn’t increase further. We will learn some stuff 2023-2027 or so.
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