ATL: EARL - Models

[kevin]

Well this 12Z ICON run is going to get people talking, 953mb at 180 hrs

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh120-180.gif

Yikes, that would potentially rival the infamous D-storm from a few years ago. GFS on the other hand has a weak system (almost an open wave) at +138 hours, but it doesn't help that its initialization is absolutely terrible as well as its short-term forecast due to the (most likely) phantom WCar storm.

[skyline385]

Well this 12Z ICON run is going to get people talking, 953mb at 180 hrs

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh120-180.gif

Is that a left turn I see at the end of that run?

It is yes, waiting for it to finish loading up on weathermodels to look at the ridging.

[Kingarabian]

Through hour 160, 12z GFS and ICON have similar tracks. CMC is further SE.

[skyline385]

CMC has a complete stall to the E of Bahamas, lots of models have been hinting at some sort of steering breakdown for a while now which isn't good.

[gatorcane]

CMC has a complete stall to the E of Bahamas, lots of models have been hinting at some sort of steering breakdown for a while now which isn't good.

Here is the 12Z CMC animation from hours 120 to 240. Stalling might be a good thing because it could get scooped up by the next trough and shunted NE which it looks like is happening on this run (just like the 06Z GFS modeled). Would have to watch Bermuda though. Note stout ridge over top of Florida, the hurricane can’t move west because of that:

[Meteorcane]

Model's still holding firm with a portion of the western Atlantic ridge retrograding SW over the FL Peninsula in about 7 days, with the system getting blocked from any westward progress, and generally weak steering beyond that. Have to hope (at least in the SE US) that that synoptic pattern holds. On the plus side despite being relatively far out it does have ensemble support with even the multi-model ensemble cluster analysis from WPC depicting some SW expansion of the ridge late next weekend.

[gatorcane]

Up and out on the 12Z GFS as it recurves without impacting land:

[blp]

Up and out on the 12Z GFS as it recurves without impacting land:

https://i.postimg.cc/g0MW6Cnn/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh120-240.gif

You can't rely on the GFS. It is severely compromised with the continuous phantom in the NW Caribbean. That will create unrealistic upper pattern over future Danielle when its over the Bahamas.

[CFLHurricane]

CMC has a complete stall to the E of Bahamas, lots of models have been hinting at some sort of steering breakdown for a while now which isn't good.

This storm has fish written all over it seeing how far out to sea it is when the steering breaks down. I find it hard to believe a weakness won’t pick it up in the two days of meandering.

[chaser1]

GFS seems to be the only player holding on to the SW GOM development. If a GOM tropical cyclone fails to materialize or is short lived, then I see no other influence that would suggest any southerly component of steering flow that would seem to alter a West to WNW motion in the longer term. No longer do any Global models show that odd West Atlantic "alien-grab" trough reaching southwestward and suddenly pulling 91L to the northeast. Seems like Globals (minus the GFS) are in better alignment suggesting fairly solid ridging north of the Bahamas easily up to 180 hr.'s. In fact, GFS, EURO, and CMC show no weakness showing up until at least 210 hr's where a shallow mid-level trough begins to develop in the Midwest and somehow slowly breaking down the SE CONUS ridge (in spite of progressive westerlies whipping deeper low's/troughs to the east). At least at the mid-levels, I'd say that the 500mb pattern is starting to look like....... well August LOL. I'm certainly not sold either way on any long-term intensity forecast but from a perspective of future motion and track, I am increasingly sensing that anything from a weak TD to a hurricane may be at play in "Hurricane Alley" west of 75W between 180-200 hr.s.

It will be very interesting to see during the next 2-3 days how the GFS and other models evolve (or drop) GOM development and that long range Midwest short-wave trough.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET.

[Blown Away]

12z UKMET.

https://i.imgur.com/IsvYXw0.jpg

Luis, I think that is a subtle W shift in the Ukie again?

[skyline385]

Ridging on 12Z ICON

[Kingarabian]

Euro rolling

[Cpv17]

Ridging on 12Z ICON

https://i.imgur.com/qYWefXH.png

I see 2 solutions here. Recurve ots or a w or wsw bend towards northern Cuba or SFL.

[Kingarabian]

Through the first 96 hours, GFS has less ridging than the Euro/CMC.

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF… Through 120 hrs

[chaser1]

Ridging on 12Z ICON

https://i.imgur.com/qYWefXH.png

I see 2 solutions here. Recurve ots or a w or wsw bend towards northern Cuba or SFL.

Agreed. I believe if under 200 hr's, 91L goes W to WSW. Tough part is will it be a tropical wave or a hurricane?

[BobHarlem]

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like a N shift?