ATL: EARL - Models

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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#81 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:54 pm

Weak trough coming at hour 216. Euro will probably stall it over the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#82 Postby Meteorcane » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:56 pm

Getting a little dicey at the tail end of the EC run, no real weakness north of the system to erode the ridge enough to cause much of a northerly motion, fortunately the ridge to the west is still stout enough that its westward progress is a bit stunted. The difficulty with this weak steering scenario is that a lot of it will be influenced by northern branch shortwaves which are very difficult to model accurately at this lead time (particularly in summer). It is these shortwaves that would give it a path OTS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#83 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:56 pm

Pumping the brakes big time as it nears the NW Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#84 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:57 pm

Last frame shifts west, actually wsw, slowing down. Nail biter run.
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Last edited by BobHarlem on Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#85 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:57 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Pumping the brakes big time as it nears the NW Bahamas.


Image

Uh oh!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#86 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:57 pm

Oh! Ecmwf with a wsw dive near SFL… :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#87 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:58 pm

On hi res it appears to even move sw at hour 228.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#88 Postby blp » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:58 pm

Its trapped..

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Last edited by blp on Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#89 Postby cajungal » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:59 pm

Wonder if we Will ever see a Betsy loopety loop again
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#90 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:59 pm

The Euro has been the king of cliffhangers lately, sheesh. Very precarious position at 10 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#91 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:00 pm

Dorian be like: "I am proud."
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#92 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:01 pm

Blown Away wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Pumping the brakes big time as it nears the NW Bahamas.


Image

Uh oh!
Thats not good for flori-duh.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#93 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:03 pm

Slow moving intensifying hurricane moving WSW would not end well. Especially since that area of the Atlantic loves to produce monsters.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#94 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:03 pm

Imagebreakfast restaurants wilmington

12z ECMWF…
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#95 Postby skyline385 » Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:07 pm

Slight WSW turn and stalls over Bahamas (not again) at 967mb

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#96 Postby blp » Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:07 pm

The Ukie continues to confirm the ridge will be in place.

Image

Trough staying high.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#97 Postby Spacecoast » Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:09 pm

12z gefs:fwiw
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#98 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:10 pm

Ominous ending on 12z Euro but in reality, thankfully too far down stream to take with any serious thoughts. Especially with that kind of 500mb recipe. It’s Pin The Tail On The Donkey hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#99 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:14 pm

It’s pretty hard to get a SFL hit here if steering collapses, but the trend is worrying.

Jesus, the Bahamas with Dorian 2.0
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#100 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:16 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:It’s pretty hard to get a SFL hit here if steering collapses, but the trend is worrying.

Jesus, the Bahamas with Dorian 2.0


Agree. If steering collapses it will find any little pinhole weakness possible and start N. That’s what we’ll organized TC’s do.
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