SouthFLTropics wrote:Am I seeing things or did the GFS just plow straight through a ridge?
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It’s also plowing straight through UL outflow from the Gulf major, which does not want to disappear from the GFS.
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SouthFLTropics wrote:Am I seeing things or did the GFS just plow straight through a ridge?
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LarryWx wrote:Based on many of the EPS members also slowing down nearby at 240 hours with similar H5 and then mainly recurving safely offshore the US once resuming movement after 240, I feel that the storm would very likely have recurved offshore the US had the 12Z Euro gone past 240 hours. You can also kind of tell by looking over N America at H5/sfc at 240 on the Euro op.
But this is merely speculation on what's already very speculative, the 240 hour position on an operational run. Things will surely change quite a bit over the next few days even though as of this moment staying OTS probably has a slight advantage as of now imho.
SouthFLTropics wrote:Am I seeing things or did the GFS just plow straight through a ridge?
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.NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:LarryWx wrote:Based on many of the EPS members also slowing down nearby at 240 hours with similar H5 and then mainly recurving safely offshore the US once resuming movement after 240, I feel that the storm would very likely have recurved offshore the US had the 12Z Euro gone past 240 hours. You can also kind of tell by looking over N America at H5/sfc at 240 on the Euro op.
But this is merely speculation on what's already very speculative, the 240 hour position on an operational run. Things will surely change quite a bit over the next few days even though as of this moment staying OTS probably has a slight advantage as of now imho.
The Euro beyond day 10 actually takes it into West Palm Beach, eventually moving WNW and sliding further inland. Obviously too far out to be concerned about exact specifics but that SW dive from the Euro is quite alarming in the long-range for Florida residents.
SouthFLTropics wrote:Here's something you don't see every day...
OOPS - Sorry, had the wrong happy hour...
[url]https://i.imgur.com/IMGL15R.gif[
https://i.imgur.com/Z7ftyww.gif
LarryWx wrote:.NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:LarryWx wrote:Based on many of the EPS members also slowing down nearby at 240 hours with similar H5 and then mainly recurving safely offshore the US once resuming movement after 240, I feel that the storm would very likely have recurved offshore the US had the 12Z Euro gone past 240 hours. You can also kind of tell by looking over N America at H5/sfc at 240 on the Euro op.
But this is merely speculation on what's already very speculative, the 240 hour position on an operational run. Things will surely change quite a bit over the next few days even though as of this moment staying OTS probably has a slight advantage as of now imho.
The Euro beyond day 10 actually takes it into West Palm Beach, eventually moving WNW and sliding further inland. Obviously too far out to be concerned about exact specifics but that SW dive from the Euro is quite alarming in the long-range for Florida residents.
Thanks. Interesting. Is the Euro control actually just an extension of the operational? Isn't it at a lower resolution?
BobHarlem wrote:Ok so 931mb hurricane in Brownsville Sep 6, then 91L as a 966mb hurricane into Myrtle Beach on the 8th. Thanks Happy hour GFS. What is making it bend back west so far for 91L?
toad strangler wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:It’s pretty hard to get a SFL hit here if steering collapses, but the trend is worrying.
Jesus, the Bahamas with Dorian 2.0
Agree. If steering collapses it will find any little pinhole weakness possible and start N. That’s what we’ll organized TC’s do.
Spacecoast wrote:LarryWx wrote:.NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:
The Euro beyond day 10 actually takes it into West Palm Beach, eventually moving WNW and sliding further inland. Obviously too far out to be concerned about exact specifics but that SW dive from the Euro is quite alarming in the long-range for Florida residents.
Thanks. Interesting. Is the Euro control actually just an extension of the operational? Isn't it at a lower resolution?
Another member of the ensemble (CNTL: Control forecast) is at a lower spatial resolution than the HRES but at that lower resolution it utilises the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and the currently best description of the model physics. Its significance for the ensemble is that it provides the unperturbed member to which the perturbations for the remainder of the ensemble members are applied.
The perturbed members (50 members) are similar to the CNTL but their initial states and model physics have been perturbed to explore the currently understood range of uncertainty in the observations and the model. They provide a range of possible future weather states. When averaged over many forecasts (although not necessarily for any particular forecast) these have lower skill than either the HRES or the CNTL. However they do provide an estimate of the forecast uncertainty or confidence.
tarheelprogrammer wrote:gatorcane wrote:End of 12z ECMWF looks like the start of a counter-clockwise loop, had the run gone out farther thinking it would start heading northeast, that is what timely ridge over Florida to “save the day” if it verifies, haven’t really seen that type of ridge much this summer.
Timely to say the least but the most likely outcome in most scenarios like this. Still time to change but we have all seen this song and dance before.
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