2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Europa non è lontana]

Looks like the 0z GFS is trying to develop something in the subtropics (not 92L) within the next 24-30 hours. It is the GFS though so it could very well be a phantom, not sure if any other models are showing it.

Still there on 06z GFS, also on 00z Euro and 06z ARPEGE. Phase diagram has it as neutral core transitioning to shallow warm core, although it's difficult to resolve at such a small size.

[aspen]

There are multiple areas to watch over the next ten days:

1.) 91L, of course. All the globals show development around September 1st or 2nd.

2.) A shortie might try to spin up in the NW subtropics late Tuesday or sometime on Wednesday. If so, it’ll prevent August from being a ridiculous 0/0/0 and 0 ACE.

3.) A wave will exit Africa within 24-36 hours and head NW. This it the NHC’s 10/30 AOI. The GFS, CMC, and ICON develop this to various degrees, and it’s possible it could find decent conditions in the central subtropics later on.

4.) Another wave will exit Africa on September 2nd/3rd. The ICON loves this one, but the rest of the globals have only occasionally tried to develop it. This wave also looks like it’ll head NW after splashdown (what’s with this immediate NW track this year?), but might be at a lower latitude and be less broad than the 10/30 AOI

5.) Yet another wave will exit Africa on September 6/7th. Not much on the models yet, but today’s 00z CMC shows it as quite a strong wave coming off at a slightly lower latitude than the rest. Might want to watch this over the coming days to see if other models try to develop it.

Dishonorable mention: the GFS’s persistent WCar phantom, which is finally shifting to the EPac. Goodbye and good riddance.

[SoupBone]

There are multiple areas to watch over the next ten days:

1.) 91L, of course. All the globals show development around September 1st or 2nd.

2.) A shortie might try to spin up in the NW subtropics late Tuesday or sometime on Wednesday. If so, it’ll prevent August from being a ridiculous 0/0/0 and 0 ACE.

3.) A wave will exit Africa within 24-36 hours and head NW. This it the NHC’s 10/30 AOI. The GFS, CMC, and ICON develop this to various degrees, and it’s possible it could find decent conditions in the central subtropics later on.

4.) Another wave will exit Africa on September 2nd/3rd. The ICON loves this one, but the rest of the globals have only occasionally tried to develop it. This wave also looks like it’ll head NW after splashdown (what’s with this immediate NW track this year?), but might be at a lower latitude and be less broad than the 10/30 AOI

5.) Yet another wave will exit Africa on September 6/7th. Not much on the models yet, but today’s 00z CMC shows it as quite a strong wave coming off at a slightly lower latitude than the rest. Might want to watch this over the coming days to see if other models try to develop it.

Dishonorable mention: the GFS’s persistent WCar phantom, which is finally shifting to the EPac. Goodbye and good riddance.

I don't know why, but after watching this system for the last almost two weeks, I'm laughing at these comments. Bye bye, we hardly knew you.

[jaguars_22]

I would almost start watching the eastern gulf. The Nam has showed a spin up there moving west… also a few ensembles are hinting at it as well!!! GEPS!

[Tailgater33]

Weak low development possible near the Big Bend area, some ensembles show this drifting around for a few days. None show it getting very strong maybe a messy TD.
Rotation already visible on satellite, some dry air also.
Haha you beat me to it Jaguars

[Deshaunrob17]

Every year we see bad modeling, but I think this year tops it. In 2020 Euro camp was bad, but atleast the GFS was on point most of the times.. GFS started off this year with many fantasy canes.. Euro has been guilty with this too… Shocking to see how much weaker the ensembles got with 91L. Saw many posts last week about the Euro being King when it persistently showed a hurricane tracking through the islands this week. Still believe it will become a hurricane though north of the Bahamas, though.

[aspen]

While it doesn’t develop on this run, the 9/6 wave is present and gets all the way into the Caribbean on the 12z GFS. It’s also quite strong during splashdown on the 12z CMC. Nothing concrete yet and it’s still over a week from even getting over water, but I feel like we should keep an eye on it.

[SFLcane]

Would not be surprised at all if we get through peak with 0 hurricanes.

[jaguars_22]

The 18z HRRR is interesting! Shows a pretty good signature out in the gulf by Wednesday??

[Cpv17]

The 18z HRRR is interesting! Shows a pretty good signature out in the gulf by Wednesday??

The UKMET has something too.

[jaguars_22]

What’s it showing? CPV? Does it move towards us?

[Cpv17]

What’s it showing? CPV? Does it move towards us?

It’s showing a disturbance moving across the Gulf similar to some other models.

[Teban54]

There are multiple areas to watch over the next ten days:

1.) 91L, of course. All the globals show development around September 1st or 2nd.

2.) A shortie might try to spin up in the NW subtropics late Tuesday or sometime on Wednesday. If so, it’ll prevent August from being a ridiculous 0/0/0 and 0 ACE.

3.) A wave will exit Africa within 24-36 hours and head NW. This it the NHC’s 10/30 AOI. The GFS, CMC, and ICON develop this to various degrees, and it’s possible it could find decent conditions in the central subtropics later on.

4.) Another wave will exit Africa on September 2nd/3rd. The ICON loves this one, but the rest of the globals have only occasionally tried to develop it. This wave also looks like it’ll head NW after splashdown (what’s with this immediate NW track this year?), but might be at a lower latitude and be less broad than the 10/30 AOI

5.) Yet another wave will exit Africa on September 6/7th. Not much on the models yet, but today’s 00z CMC shows it as quite a strong wave coming off at a slightly lower latitude than the rest. Might want to watch this over the coming days to see if other models try to develop it.

Dishonorable mention: the GFS’s persistent WCar phantom, which is finally shifting to the EPac. Goodbye and good riddance.

0z CMC today develops the 9/6 wave.

Feels strange to see CMC sniffing out some possible development before all other models, given how conservative it has been lately.

[aspen]

It’s possible we could have up to four systems competing for names this weekend. While 91L and the 20/40 wave have been on all models for days now, something new has popped up: possible subtropical development around 40N/40W in 72-96 hours. It becomes a name-worthy system on all four global models. The ICON and Euro also develop a wave that exits Africa later this weekend.

Looking out a little later, the Euro has joined the CMC in showing a strong, rather far south wave exiting Africa on 9/6. The GFS still isn’t biting yet.

[Category5Kaiju]

Newest CMC seems pretty bullish on the 9/6 wave; it also seems to really develop a tropical system in the subtropics and of course 91L around the Labor Day timeframe

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET has this in the far E MDR in 4 days moving WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.5N 18.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2022 108 15.8N 19.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 04.09.2022 120 16.6N 22.3W 1005 30
0000UTC 05.09.2022 132 18.0N 24.9W 1007 31
1200UTC 05.09.2022 144 18.7N 27.9W 1008 32

[Europa non è lontana]

Interesting from the Euro 12z! Also has model support from the CMC, and slightly more tepid model support from the GFS and ICON.

[aspen]

12z Euro with up to four possible storms on Sunday. That might quiet the (actually justified for once) season cancel talk, if it wasn't for the fact that it keeps killing off 91L.

[skyline385]

12z Euro with up to four possible storms on Sunday. That might quiet the (actually justified for once) season cancel talk, if it wasn't for the fact that it keeps killing off 91L.

I would believe it if this season would have produced something so far. Moreover those are extremely weak vortices on the ECMWF, not even at TD level which is probably what you would realistically get when pushing through all that dry air and the cold pool there. The one above 40N is the interesting one.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Steve]

12z Euro with up to four possible storms on Sunday. That might quiet the (actually justified for once) season cancel talk, if it wasn't for the fact that it keeps killing off 91L.
https://i.imgur.com/Q7aG04G.png

Euro gone wild!