ATL: EARL - Models

[tolakram]

Turning north and weak. Model output looks odd, but not sure it means anything. Everything much different from run 6 hours ago.



trend

[tolakram]

Low over NE was over Indiana just a run ago. Might be a bad run?

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF. Behaving as expected.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Low over NE was over Indiana just a run ago. Might be a bad run?

https://i.imgur.com/QUpk9mG.png

I have never not seen the Euro completely drop a storm.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS spins it up pretty fast

[aspen]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/8k2qynwh/hwrf-ref-91-L-fh3-126.gif [/url]

12z HWRF. Behaving as expected.

Not an unreasonable run because its initialization is excellent, and it develops 91L around the same time as the GFS/CMC/ICON. A hurricane in 5-6 days is possible if we get a TC in ~3 days.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[aspen]

According to the HWRF, the northern lobe of the system will become dominant and the circulation will start to contract on Wednesday. Only time will tell if it’s right.

[gatorcane]

Posting frequency has dropped of dramatically in 24 hours. That is when you know models must be showing a recurve or fish well except if you live in Bermuda. Also shows a strong hurricane. Kudos to the GFS, it seems to have nailed the pattern first way in advance. Threatens Bermuda on this run:

[aspen]

Despite taking longer to organize and not getting as strong by Day 5 as last run, the 18z HWRF ends off with a pretty favorable setup for 91L - lots of UL divergence and outflow channels, increasing >29C SSTs, and a nice pocket of moisture protecting the storm. If this went out another 24-48 hours, it would probably show a major.

[sma10]

Posting frequency has dropped of dramatically in 24 hours. That is when you know models must be showing a recurve or fish well except if you live in Bermuda. Also shows a strong hurricane. Kudos to the GFS, it seems to have nailed the pattern first way in advance. Threatens Bermuda on this run:

https://i.postimg.cc/fLJP79K6/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh72-180.gif

Yes, you can always tell what the models are currently showing by how dry the threads get

As for GFS, personally I'm withholding kudos to a model that showed an imaginary, monstrous Gulf hurricane 20 runs in a row. Also, nothing has actually happened yet, in regards to 91L' s track.

[Iceresistance]

If the center of 91L makes a center reformation to the SW, this could really mess up the models track and direction of this system, it could pull a 2019 evil D storm. (Refused to pull up north until it reached the Caribbean.)

[Blown Away]

18z ECMWF… Decent S shift at 90 hrs. Only model to show the SE convection blob happening now.

[sma10]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Pf0t739d/ecmwf-z850-vort-eatl-fh0-90.gif [/url]

18z ECMWF… Decent S shift at 90 hrs. Only model to show the SE convection blob happening now.

Also, 18z EPS with a fairly noticeable southern shift in ensembles. Hopefully someone with better skills than myself will post

[skyline385]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Pf0t739d/ecmwf-z850-vort-eatl-fh0-90.gif [/url]

18z ECMWF… Decent S shift at 90 hrs. Only model to show the SE convection blob happening now.

Also, 18z EPS with a fairly noticeable southern shift in ensembles. Hopefully someone with better skills than myself will post

The small southerly shift seems to be because EPS has even lesser members developing on 18Z. EPS has been delaying development for the past 3-4 runs now.

[skyline385]

0Z ICON now recurving at the end of its run as well

[LarryWx]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 48.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.08.2022 0 14.2N 48.0W 1009 25
1200UTC 30.08.2022 12 14.8N 48.7W 1009 24
0000UTC 31.08.2022 24 15.4N 49.6W 1008 23
1200UTC 31.08.2022 36 15.8N 50.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 01.09.2022 48 16.7N 51.6W 1008 25
1200UTC 01.09.2022 60 17.8N 53.4W 1007 27
0000UTC 02.09.2022 72 18.7N 54.7W 1007 28
1200UTC 02.09.2022 84 19.9N 57.7W 1006 36
0000UTC 03.09.2022 96 20.0N 59.5W 1007 35
1200UTC 03.09.2022 108 20.4N 61.6W 1008 31
0000UTC 04.09.2022 120 20.5N 63.4W 1008 29
1200UTC 04.09.2022 132 21.4N 65.0W 1009 28
0000UTC 05.09.2022 144 22.0N 67.3W 1008 27

[ScottNAtlanta]

0Z ICON now recurving at the end of its run as well

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh120-180-1.gif

That looks like it is doing an anticyclonic loop

[Teban54]

Per the 0z HWRF (which was really good at short-term structures in the last two years), the current situation with two lobes of convection will continue for at least 36-48 hours.