2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[LarryWx]

I tend to be a pretty bullish tracker, and future 91L will really be a curious demonstration. However, I do believe September will be a key month to watch. If nothing significant happens early to mid month, then I’m genuinely going to begin to question this season. Clearly, something must be extremely wrong for something like that to happen (let alone completely unexpected and unforeseen even to experts). However, considering how many recorded years in the past have not featured anything remotely like that (like with 0 Hs or NSs by peak season), I am still under the assumption that perhaps this year may end up not behaving like that. But for a La Niña year with a band of very warm tropical waters to flounder and sputter is going to require a TON of studies since that sort of bust would actually be strange considering we’re talking about how 2 of the most historically favorable-correlated factors still did not have the power to overcome whatever inhibitor factor or factors are out there in the basin this year.

Keep in mind that it isn't just La Nina, it is a third year La Nina.There has been no third year La Nina (or even just cold neutral) season anywhere close to hyperactive. Some have been weak.

[Category5Kaiju]

I tend to be a pretty bullish tracker, and future 91L will really be a curious demonstration. However, I do believe September will be a key month to watch. If nothing significant happens early to mid month, then I’m genuinely going to begin to question this season. Clearly, something must be extremely wrong for something like that to happen (let alone completely unexpected and unforeseen even to experts). However, considering how many recorded years in the past have not featured anything remotely like that (like with 0 Hs or NSs by peak season), I am still under the assumption that perhaps this year may end up not behaving like that. But for a La Niña year with a band of very warm tropical waters to flounder and sputter is going to require a TON of studies since that sort of bust would actually be strange considering we’re talking about how 2 of the most historically favorable-correlated factors still did not have the power to overcome whatever inhibitor factor or factors are out there in the basin this year.

Keep in mind that it isn't just La Nina, it is a third year La Nina.There has been no third year La Nina (or even just cold neutral) season anywhere close to hyperactive. Some have been weak.

I know you tend to keep track of these third year La Nina year stats; what was the least inactive third year La Nina recorded? And how does that compare to what we're seeing now?

[Hammy]

Wasn't the Atlantic supposed to wake up since July 20 ? ⏰

August 20 was the bell date everybody was talking about. I've been expecting September 1, give or take a few days on either side

[rickcorvin]

I tend to be a pretty bullish tracker, and future 91L will really be a curious demonstration. However, I do believe September will be a key month to watch. If nothing significant happens early to mid month, then I’m genuinely going to begin to question this season. Clearly, something must be extremely wrong for something like that to happen (let alone completely unexpected and unforeseen even to experts). However, considering how many recorded years in the past have not featured anything remotely like that (like with 0 Hs or NSs by peak season), I am still under the assumption that perhaps this year may end up not behaving like that. But for a La Niña year with a band of very warm tropical waters to flounder and sputter is going to require a TON of studies since that sort of bust would actually be strange considering we’re talking about how 2 of the most historically favorable-correlated factors still did not have the power to overcome whatever inhibitor factor or factors are out there in the basin this year.

Keep in mind that it isn't just La Nina, it is a third year La Nina.There has been no third year La Nina (or even just cold neutral) season anywhere close to hyperactive. Some have been weak.

I'm curious how last year's ENSO state, let alone the year before that, affects current conditions? Sample sizes are small when it comes to climatology signals like this. You sometimes have to squint to see correlation. Causation remains a mystery--at least to an amateur like me.

[Hammy]

The biggest curiosity for me at this point is why have the subtropics been so void of activity. This is something that seems to go back to last year--even years like 2007 (which underperformed terribly outside the Caribbean) and 2013 featured decent amounts of subtropical activity, and 2019 (which underperformed in intensity--three major hurricanes, yes, but only three other hurricanes, which were at that intensity for less than 24 hours) ended September with 12 storms, and then had 7 more in October/November--most of which were in the subtropics. 2020 ended September at 20 but only had one storm after that, and the only one that originated there this year did so over land.

So what is going on that's making that area so unfavorable? That's having more of an impact on the storm numbers than anything, given we've had quite a few active seasons feature a dead or near-dead MDR.

[skyline385]

I tend to be a pretty bullish tracker, and future 91L will really be a curious demonstration. However, I do believe September will be a key month to watch. If nothing significant happens early to mid month, then I’m genuinely going to begin to question this season. Clearly, something must be extremely wrong for something like that to happen (let alone completely unexpected and unforeseen even to experts). However, considering how many recorded years in the past have not featured anything remotely like that (like with 0 Hs or NSs by peak season), I am still under the assumption that perhaps this year may end up not behaving like that. But for a La Niña year with a band of very warm tropical waters to flounder and sputter is going to require a TON of studies since that sort of bust would actually be strange considering we’re talking about how 2 of the most historically favorable-correlated factors still did not have the power to overcome whatever inhibitor factor or factors are out there in the basin this year.

Keep in mind that it isn't just La Nina, it is a third year La Nina.There has been no third year La Nina (or even just cold neutral) season anywhere close to hyperactive. Some have been weak.

I know you tend to keep track of these third year La Nina year stats; what was the least inactive third year La Nina recorded? And how does that compare to what we're seeing now?

There aren't many third year Nina at all. You can look at them on the CPC ONI site (https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php) and see for yourself how past third year Nina have behaved.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

[toad strangler]

Wasn't the Atlantic supposed to wake up since July 20 ? ⏰

August 20 was the bell date everybody was talking about. I've been expecting September 1, give or take a few days on either side

Well 8/20 is kinda like Christmas on 12/25. But some celebrate other dates

[LarryWx]

I tend to be a pretty bullish tracker, and future 91L will really be a curious demonstration. However, I do believe September will be a key month to watch. If nothing significant happens early to mid month, then I’m genuinely going to begin to question this season. Clearly, something must be extremely wrong for something like that to happen (let alone completely unexpected and unforeseen even to experts). However, considering how many recorded years in the past have not featured anything remotely like that (like with 0 Hs or NSs by peak season), I am still under the assumption that perhaps this year may end up not behaving like that. But for a La Niña year with a band of very warm tropical waters to flounder and sputter is going to require a TON of studies since that sort of bust would actually be strange considering we’re talking about how 2 of the most historically favorable-correlated factors still did not have the power to overcome whatever inhibitor factor or factors are out there in the basin this year.

Keep in mind that it isn't just La Nina, it is a third year La Nina.There has been no third year La Nina (or even just cold neutral) season anywhere close to hyperactive. Some have been weak.

I know you tend to keep track of these third year La Nina year stats; what was the least inactive third year La Nina recorded? And how does that compare to what we're seeing now?

There are 8 3rd year cold ENSO analogs.

As of 8/29, here are the four of these 8 analogs with lowest ACE:
- 1874: 3 storms (1 H and 2 TS); rough guess of ACE 12; full season ACE 47; remaining 5 storms included 3 Hs, 2 with high impact (Bermuda, FL Big Bend, GA/SC/NC coasts, Jamaica)
- 1956: 4 storms (1 MH, 1 H, and 2 TS); rough guess of ACE 32; full season ACE 54; remaining storms 8 including 2 Hs, one with high impact (FL Panhandle)
- 1917: 2 storms (2 TS); rough guess of ACE 6; full season ACE 61; remaining two storms were MHs, one of which had high impact (Jamaica, W Cuba, FL Panhandle)
- 1910: 2 storms (2 TS); rough guess of ACE 1; full season ACE 64....remaining three storms were Hs (one MH), two of which had high impact (Greater Antilles, SW FL, S TX)

So, ACEwise as of 8/29, 2022 is most similar to 1910 and 1917 of the ENSO analogs.

Gulf coast of FL was hit all four seasons by a H: 9/24 (H), 9/27 (H), 9/28 (MH), 10/17 (MH)

Regarding other 4 3rd year cold ENSO analogs, here was the impact on Gulf coast of FL: 9/2 (H), 9/17 (TS), 9/22 (TS), 9/25 (H), 10/8 (H), 10/23 (MH), 11/21 (H)

Thus, I continue to feel that the Gulf coast of FL has an above normal threat this season and the highest threat of any land area. The lack of activity to this point is pretty much irrelevant as one can see by the dates the Gulf coast of FL was hit.

Source of ENSO data is Eric Webb: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble- ... index.html

[Patrick99]

Keep in mind that it isn't just La Nina, it is a third year La Nina.There has been no third year La Nina (or even just cold neutral) season anywhere close to hyperactive. Some have been weak.

I know you tend to keep track of these third year La Nina year stats; what was the least inactive third year La Nina recorded? And how does that compare to what we're seeing now?

There aren't many third year Nina at all. You can look at them on the CPC ONI site (https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php) and see for yourself how past third year Nina have behaved.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

I'll throw it out there.....what if we get a fourth year La Nina next year? Is that something that's ever happened in recorded history?

[Ntxw]

Keep in mind that it isn't just La Nina, it is a third year La Nina.There has been no third year La Nina (or even just cold neutral) season anywhere close to hyperactive. Some have been weak.

I know you tend to keep track of these third year La Nina year stats; what was the least inactive third year La Nina recorded? And how does that compare to what we're seeing now?

There are 8 3rd year cold ENSO analogs.

As of 8/29, here are the four of these 8 analogs with lowest ACE:
- 1874: 3 storms (1 H and 2 TS); rough guess of ACE 12; full season ACE 47; remaining 5 storms included 3 Hs, 2 with high impact (Bermuda, FL Big Bend, GA/SC/NC coasts, Jamaica)
- 1956: 4 storms (1 MH, 1 H, and 2 TS); rough guess of ACE 32; full season ACE 54; remaining storms 8 including 2 Hs, one with high impact (FL Panhandle)
- 1917: 2 storms (2 TS); rough guess of ACE 6; full season ACE 61; remaining two storms were MHs, one of which had high impact (Jamaica, W Cuba, FL Panhandle)
- 1910: 2 storms (2 TS); rough guess of ACE 1; full season ACE 64....remaining three storms were Hs (one MH), two of which had high impact (Greater Antilles, SW FL, S TX)

So, ACEwise as of 8/29, 2022 is most similar to 1910 and 1917 of the ENSO analogs.

Gulf coast of FL was hit all four seasons by a H: 9/24 (H), 9/27 (H), 9/28 (MH), 10/17 (MH)

Regarding other 4 3rd year cold ENSO analogs, here was the impact on Gulf coast of FL: 9/2 (H), 9/17 (TS), 9/22 (TS), 9/25 (H), 10/8 (H), 10/23 (MH), 11/21 (H)

Thus, I continue to feel that the Gulf coast of FL has an above normal threat this season and the highest threat of any land area.

Source of ENSO data is Eric Webb: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble- ... index.html

You've done some great work on this. Challenge, what were the following seasons like after third year cold ENSO? likely change to warm ENSO? Average ACE, etc.

[LarryWx]

I know you tend to keep track of these third year La Nina year stats; what was the least inactive third year La Nina recorded? And how does that compare to what we're seeing now?

There aren't many third year Nina at all. You can look at them on the CPC ONI site (https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php) and see for yourself how past third year Nina have behaved.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

I'll throw it out there.....what if we get a fourth year La Nina next year? Is that something that's ever happened in recorded history?

Excellent question! 1875 is the only 4th year cold ENSO analog going back to 1850 per Eric Webb's data.

[Iceresistance]

I know you tend to keep track of these third year La Nina year stats; what was the least inactive third year La Nina recorded? And how does that compare to what we're seeing now?

There aren't many third year Nina at all. You can look at them on the CPC ONI site (https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php) and see for yourself how past third year Nina have behaved.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

I'll throw it out there.....what if we get a fourth year La Nina next year? Is that something that's ever happened in recorded history?

The 1970s (1973-1976, even though it's not full consistency) and 1998-2002 had a La Nina for 4 years in a row. We are maybe due for a 4th year cycle again. (The 1950s were just shy)

[LarryWx]

I know you tend to keep track of these third year La Nina year stats; what was the least inactive third year La Nina recorded? And how does that compare to what we're seeing now?

There are 8 3rd year cold ENSO analogs.

As of 8/29, here are the four of these 8 analogs with lowest ACE:
- 1874: 3 storms (1 H and 2 TS); rough guess of ACE 12; full season ACE 47; remaining 5 storms included 3 Hs, 2 with high impact (Bermuda, FL Big Bend, GA/SC/NC coasts, Jamaica)
- 1956: 4 storms (1 MH, 1 H, and 2 TS); rough guess of ACE 32; full season ACE 54; remaining storms 8 including 2 Hs, one with high impact (FL Panhandle)
- 1917: 2 storms (2 TS); rough guess of ACE 6; full season ACE 61; remaining two storms were MHs, one of which had high impact (Jamaica, W Cuba, FL Panhandle)
- 1910: 2 storms (2 TS); rough guess of ACE 1; full season ACE 64....remaining three storms were Hs (one MH), two of which had high impact (Greater Antilles, SW FL, S TX)

So, ACEwise as of 8/29, 2022 is most similar to 1910 and 1917 of the ENSO analogs.

Gulf coast of FL was hit all four seasons by a H: 9/24 (H), 9/27 (H), 9/28 (MH), 10/17 (MH)

Regarding other 4 3rd year cold ENSO analogs, here was the impact on Gulf coast of FL: 9/2 (H), 9/17 (TS), 9/22 (TS), 9/25 (H), 10/8 (H), 10/23 (MH), 11/21 (H)

Thus, I continue to feel that the Gulf coast of FL has an above normal threat this season and the highest threat of any land area.

Source of ENSO data is Eric Webb: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble- ... index.html

You've done some great work on this. Challenge, what were the following seasons like after third year cold ENSO? likely change to warm ENSO? Average ACE, etc.

Thank you.
1. The majority were El Nino the subsequent fall/winter.

2. ACE for
-1875 (4th year cold ENSO): 72, which was 25 higher than 1874
-1895 (borderline weak El Nino): 69, which was 67 lower than 1894
-1911 (warm neutral to weak El Nino): 34, which was 30 lower than 1910
-1918 (weak to moderate El Nino): 40, which was 21 lower than 1917
-1957 (moderate El Nino): 79, which was 22 higher than 1956
-1976 (weak El Nino): 84, which was 8 higher than 1975
-1986 (weak to moderate El Nino): 36, which was 52 lower than 1985
-2001 (neutral): 110, which was 9 lower than 2000

So, on average, the season after a 3rd year cold ENSO season had a 16 lower ACE with 5 lower and 3 higher. This is intuitive based on the tendency toward a developing El Nino.

[LarryWx]

There aren't many third year Nina at all. You can look at them on the CPC ONI site (https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php) and see for yourself how past third year Nina have behaved.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

I'll throw it out there.....what if we get a fourth year La Nina next year? Is that something that's ever happened in recorded history?

The 1970s (1973-1976, even though it's not full consistency) and 1998-2002 had a La Nina for 4 years in a row. We are maybe due for a 4th year cycle again. (The 1950s were just shy)

Ice,
For hurricane seasons, I count only 1973-5 and don't include 1976. Also, I don't count 2002 and didn't count 2001 because the negatives were broken by 0's in the summer per Webb's table:
https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble- ... index.html

However, I could see why someone might want to include 2001 as a 4th year cold ENSO based on the NOAA table and I wouldn't debate it:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ONI_v5.php

So, for me, 1875 is the best 4th year analog. If I had to name the next best, I'd probably go with 2001.

[Ntxw]

Thank you.
1. The majority were El Nino the subsequent fall/winter.

2. ACE for
-1875 (4th year cold ENSO): 72, which was 25 higher than 1874
-1895 (borderline weak El Nino): 69, which was 67 lower than 1894
-1911 (warm neutral to weak El Nino): 34, which was 30 lower than 1910
-1918 (weak to moderate El Nino): 40, which was 21 lower than 1917
-1957 (moderate El Nino): 79, which was 22 higher than 1956
-1976 (weak El Nino): 84, which was 8 higher than 1975
-1986 (weak to moderate El Nino): 36, which was 52 lower than 1985
-2001 (neutral): 110, which was 9 lower than 2000

So, on average, the season after a 3rd year cold ENSO season had a 16 lower ACE with 5 lower and 3 higher. This is intuitive based on the tendency toward a developing El Nino.

Thanks Larry. Fool's gold right now but something to keep in mind for early indicators for next season, this probably provides a good foundation to start.

[Iceresistance]

I'll throw it out there.....what if we get a fourth year La Nina next year? Is that something that's ever happened in recorded history?

The 1970s (1973-1976, even though it's not full consistency) and 1998-2002 had a La Nina for 4 years in a row. We are maybe due for a 4th year cycle again. (The 1950s were just shy)

Ice,
For hurricane seasons, I count only 1973-5 and don't include 1976. Also, I don't count 2002 and didn't count 2001 because the negatives were broken by 0's in the summer per Webb's table:
https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble- ... index.html

However, I could see why someone might want to include 2001 as a 4th year cold ENSO based on the NOAA table and I wouldn't debate it:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ONI_v5.php

So, for me, 1875 is the best 4th year analog. If I had to name the next best, I'd probably go with 2001.

Okay then, makes more sense now since the definitions of a La Nina are different between you and the CPC for Hurricane Seasons.

[Category5Kaiju]

If somebody just showed me this image without context and said that it was August 28 when it was taken, I would have been quick to say that that year looks like it will be a hyperactive and very impactful season.

[Ntxw]

https://i.imgur.com/MWg8POL.png

If somebody just showed me this image without context and said that it was August 28 when it was taken, I would have been quick to say that that year looks like it will be a hyperactive and very impactful season.

That is a good point. We do have to remember though year to year actual SSTs shifts are very subtle, even when the anomalies look drastic. In peak of nearly every season the waters are warm enough to fuel cat5s just about anywhere in the usual places (western MDR/Carib, Gulf, Sargasso Sea etc). The big part of the story is what the layers of the atmosphere above is doing. That's what SSTas provide, SSTas don't actually strengthen cyclones it's SSTs. What SSTa can hint at is how the atmosphere might behave by guiding pressure patterns. However even this we are not very good at long intervals.

[skyline385]

https://i.imgur.com/MWg8POL.png

If somebody just showed me this image without context and said that it was August 28 when it was taken, I would have been quick to say that that year looks like it will be a hyperactive and very impactful season.

Well SSTs arent everything right?

[WiscoWx02]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1564577242231054337