ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AnnularCane]

https://i.imgur.com/BXXg5Av.gif
I had been looking at in close floaters to much, when you zoom back you can see 91L appears more like a cyclone and the NE blob appears dominant.

This has gone back and forth the last couple of days between the south and the north. The north seems to wane and the south one fires then the opposite. It is going to need to fire closer to the middle and pull both of them together. They are fighting each other right now. This also seems to be in it's own little moist pocket. If you look at the 5 day shear analysis at Univ. Wisconsin site, it has been moving in tandem between the 2 dry air masses. Right now the north looks better, but we will see if it still looks better at 6pm (est)
Actually, looking at the Univ. Wisconsin site, the southern lobe has a much more robust upper divergent flow over it...the north has very little...about the same on lower convergence

91L's own personal Civil War.

[Sciencerocks]

[Emmett_Brown]

I feel like we have seen this inverted V shaped wave/elongated circulation in recent years, but I can't remember which storm this looks like. Anyone remember?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Isahias. I probably butchered the name but that is what it looked like before it formed.

[Iceresistance]

Isahias. I probably butchered the name but that is what it looked like before it formed.

It's similar to Isaias, competing centers.

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT direct hit, very-defined elongation of the center.


https://s6.gifyu.com/images/8.30.2022-ASCAT.png

[BobHarlem]

Isahias. I probably butchered the name but that is what it looked like before it formed.

It's similar to Isaias, competing centers.

Old Isaias thread if you want to see how that went: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 0&t=121049

[ScottNAtlanta]

ASCAT direct hit, very-defined elongation of the center.

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/8.30.2022-ASCAT.png
https://s6.gifyu.com/images/8.30.2022-ASCAT.png

Looks to me like the northern end is dying off (again), but this time it looks like it is banding in to the southern rotation. The ASCAT pass seems to also indicate that the southern half might be trying to pinch off. As I recall Isaias was a really large wave when it came off of Africa

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT direct hit, very-defined elongation of the center.

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/8.30.2022-ASCAT.png
https://s6.gifyu.com/images/8.30.2022-ASCAT.png

Looks to me like the northern end is dying off (again), but this time it looks like it is banding in to the southern rotation. The ASCAT pass seems to also indicate that the southern half might be trying to pinch off. As I recall Isaias was a really large wave when it came off of Africa

If that is the case, then we could be have a huge forecast correction as said in a previous post.

[ScottNAtlanta]

ASCAT direct hit, very-defined elongation of the center.

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/8.30.2022-ASCAT.png
https://s6.gifyu.com/images/8.30.2022-ASCAT.png

Looks to me like the northern end is dying off (again), but this time it looks like it is banding in to the southern rotation. The ASCAT pass seems to also indicate that the southern half might be trying to pinch off. As I recall Isaias was a really large wave when it came off of Africa

If that is the case, then we could be have a huge forecast correction as said in a previous post.

Looking at the ASCAT pass, there are a couple of easterly barbs on the top end of the southern rotation. Just one or two, but they are there. Plus the northern convection seems to be waning

[Iceresistance]

Looks to me like the northern end is dying off (again), but this time it looks like it is banding in to the southern rotation. The ASCAT pass seems to also indicate that the southern half might be trying to pinch off. As I recall Isaias was a really large wave when it came off of Africa

If that is the case, then we could be have a huge forecast correction as said in a previous post.

Looking at the ASCAT pass, there are a couple of easterly barbs on the top end of the southern rotation. Just one or two, but they are there. Plus the northern convection seems to be waning

I've just noticed that ASCAT B and C have scanned the storm possibly at the same time. I'm going to take a better look at which one has the easterly barbs at the southern end better.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wall of shear incoming

[sunnyday]

Our friends in S Fl said their local Mets are saying 91L will recurve pretty much for sure. Do any of you think there is a chance it may end up on So Fl as predicted a few days ago?
Thank you for your input.

[CourierPR]

Our friends in S Fl said their local Mets are saying 91L will recurve pretty much for sure. Do any of you think there is a chance it may end up on So Fl as predicted a few days ago?
Thank you for your input.

Whenever the Mets smile broadly and tell us that, I smile remembering Matthew, Betsy, et al.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1564644626564366337





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[Kingarabian]

It's also weird how some of model runs are ejecting this ENE vs NNE->NE.

[cycloneye]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions are
only marginally conducive, some gradual development of this system
is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week or this weekend. The disturbance is
forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5
to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward
Islands. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
t

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2022083018, , BEST, 0, 148N, 491W, 30, 1007

[MarioProtVI]

15N, 49W. Seeing evidence of trying to pinch off into a better LLC with some westerlies evident. Would sort of back what someone said about ASCAT catching some east barbs on the northern end.

[Sciencerocks]