#3246 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Aug 30, 2022 9:22 am
Something that I have been personally thinking for a bit, but given the La Nina and how the thermodynamics look to be quite warm and favorable in the tropics, I cannot help but imagine that regardless of whether this season ends up below average, near average, or slightly above average overall by November 30, there may very well be an instance where we get a single powerhouse storm that at least encounters localized favorable conditions and occurs, making the season remembered for that one storm. Or maybe even several. The inactivity we're seeing is much unlike 2013 as in 2013, storms were forming as scheduled, but something in the atmosphere was so wrong that Gabrielle and Humberto only ended up being Cat 1 hurricanes, and the long-track Dorian didn't end up stronger. In 2013, quantity was great but quality was seriously lacking; this year, quantity seems to be lacking, but I still think it's too early to make a judgement as to whether quality will take a hit too. We still have September and October to go through, and while some may argue that since we haven't seen a big switch flip that that would mean nothing will be able to make that switch flip happen, that also imho doesn't mean that we will be certainly unable to see a strong storm or two down the line, during what should be the most favorable months of hurricane season regardless of ENSO state and that stuff. If anything, who knows if this year could be like one of those years back in the old days (like 1900, 1929, 1930, 1938, or 1992 for example) that predominantly were below average seasons but featured one storm that came to define each of those years?
The WPAC is now about to feature a super typhoon, and who would have imagined that that would have happened after nearly all of July and August with nothing really happening in that basin, with a severe lack of monsoonal troughs? I even recall comments being made about how that lack of activity was highly unusual for the basin, and (myself included as I am partly to blame for saying it lol) that it was a "snoozefest." I extend that behavioral logic to the Atlantic. I simply am unsure if we're going to go through all of the next two months without really anything; I'm inclined to believe that at some point, we'll be tracking a pretty decent major Atlantic hurricane, even if it may be just one or maybe two for the season.
3 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
