ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

AL, 91, 2022083018, , BEST, 0, 148N, 491W, 30, 1007

So, the actual 18Z position of 14.8N, 49.1W, compares to these two points in the 12Z UKMET, which are for both 6 hours earlier and 6 hours later:

1200UTC 30.08.2022 0 14.8N 48.3W 1009 25
0000UTC 31.08.2022 12 15.6N 49.4W 1009 24

Using interpolation, the actual 18Z position is 0.4 S and 0.25 W of the 12Z UKMET 18Z forecast point, which is ~45 miles SSW of the 12Z UKMET estimated position.

[Blown Away]

AL, 91, 2022083018, , BEST, 0, 148N, 491W, 30, 1007

So, the actual 18Z position of 14.8N, 49.1W, compares to these two points in the 12Z UKMET, which are for both 6 hours earlier and 6 hours later:

1200UTC 30.08.2022 0 14.8N 48.3W 1009 25
0000UTC 31.08.2022 12 15.6N 49.4W 1009 24

Using interpolation, the actual 18Z position is 0.4 S and 0.25 W of the 12Z UKMET 18Z forecast point, which is ~45 miles SSW of the 12Z UKMET estimated position.

NHC indicates a little better organized from 25 to 30.

[Blown Away]

Last visible of the day.

[FireRat]

https://i.imgur.com/zVfQ9rd.gif
Last visible of the day.

Looks like it's trying to become a TD, guess we'll see if it keeps getting better organized through tomorrow.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1564713658336378881




 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1564717231656812545

[SconnieCane]

Not even a TD and giving itself upwelling problems. This season...

[ScottNAtlanta]

We had the North Blob
We had the South Blog...
May I now introduce...the East Blob that seems to be the one that is in charge today

[Blown Away]

We had the North Blob
We had the South Blog...
May I now introduce...the East Blob that seems to be the one that is in charge today

[Sciencerocks]

We had the North Blob
We had the South Blog...
May I now introduce...the East Blob that seems to be the one that is in charge today

https://i.imgur.com/PYWGWd0.gif

reminds me of 2013 a little.

[cycloneye]

Closeup.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1564713658336378881

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1564717231656812545

As Hazelton rightfully points out in the replies, I highly doubt any serious amount of upwelling has occurred; what we're likely seeing is a pulse down of convection on the north side as the more favorable dynamics align themselves further south and east (that southward trend in particular is quite interesting given model outputs that have been expecting it to move further north by now...).

Anyway, probably the best 91L has looked, and relatively close to becoming a TC given the well-defined circulation at the surface and the numerous attempts to consolidate and pinch off. Hopefully no issues with low-level recon tomorrow.

[BobHarlem]

We had the North Blob
We had the South Blog...
May I now introduce...the East Blob that seems to be the one that is in charge today

https://i.imgur.com/PYWGWd0.gif

This may be where the new center gets going, it's in the middle of the triangle formed by the other 3 blobs from this morning.

Recon is in there right now, should be interesting.

[InfernoFlameCat]

It is quite healthy considering that it is Dmin right now Looking at IR only, one might suspect DMAX.

[FireRat]

It is quite healthy considering that it is Dmin right now Looking at IR only, one might suspect DMAX.

It sure is! If this continues through tomorrow AM we might end up having this named a TD or even TS.

August is lucky to have 31 days

[sunnyday]

As things look now, is there much chance that 91L won’t recurve? How comfortable can S Fl feel about not having a landfall? Thank you.

[tarheelprogrammer]

As things look now, is there much chance that 91L won’t recurve? How comfortable can S Fl feel about not having a landfall? Thank you.

When the models show a recurve with such uniformity this far out, it is going out to sea. A direct hit never verifies that far out. It is common for storms to miss. The shape of the SE coastline proves the point. Just my opinion though.

[Nimbus]

Shear looks like it is finally letting up and the convection is getting back over the new center.
Should be recon worthy by tomorrow.

[BobHarlem]

91L probably looks better now on satellite than it ever has. (may not be saying much, but at least it's consolidating into one area)

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like this burst of convection has pulled the center a bit SE to where the convection is firing. Will be interesting to see where the models initialize this on the next runs. They will also have aircraft data as well.