WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Post-Tropical

[Foxfires]

Nevermind, I suppose it's back to "good" old JTWC. Not sure what was going on with 2021. I'm not gonna say anything further in case the unfortunate incident of the-complete-opposite-of-something-I-wanted-happens occurs.

[Kingarabian]

Gorgeous system.

[mrbagyo]

WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (HINNAMNOR)
WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 26.7N 135.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 125 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 408 NM EAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 18 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 43 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY
WRAPPING BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC 12NM
EYE THAT IS NOW COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE. A 300412Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC CORE WITH A BANDING FEATURE
ALONG ITS EASTERN SIDE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND AMSR2 IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 125 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MAJORITY OF
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES SHOWING T6.5 AND BOTH CIMSS SATCON AND ADT
SHOWING 122-127KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 122 KTS AT 300359Z
CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 300710Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR TO THE NORTH. HAVING JUST COMPLETED AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC), 12W HAS REINTENSIFIED BACK TO 125 KTS AND REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30-31C), MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS) AND STRONG
OUTFLOW ALOFT. 12W IS FORECAST TO REACH A POTENTIAL PEAK INTENSITY
OF 135KTS OR POSSIBLY HIGHER BY TAU 36. BY THIS TIME, TWO MAIN
FACTORS BEGIN TO ALTER THE TRAJECTORY OF 12W. A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND
BREAK DOWN THE CURRENT STR TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT THE STR TO THE
WEST WILL TAKE PRIMARY CONTROL AND 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
EQUATORWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY UNTIL ENDING UP IN A
COMPETING STEERING SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH A STR TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WEST, AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SECOND
FACTOR BEING A POTENTIAL BINARY INTERACTION WITH 98W WHICH IS
CONSOLIDATING 400NM TO THE SOUTH OF 12W, ALREADY WITHIN CAPTURE
DISTANCE. AS THESE TWO FACTORS MANIFEST THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND NEAR TAU 48 AS THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED TRACK SPEEDS WILL SLOW
AND UPWELLING WILL BEING TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT INTENSITY. TAU 72
IS A SIGNIFICANT INFLECTION POINT AS MODELS AGREE 12W WILL EXECUTE
A POLEWARD TURN AND TRACK NORTHWARD WITH A BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATING A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUAL NORTHWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THIS TURN NEAR TAU 72 THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF TIME SPENT QS
OVER COOLER WATERS WILL HAVE A STRONG IMPACT ON LONG-RANGE
INTENSITY FORECAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48, SHOWING A WESTWARD AND EVENTUAL SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. NEAR
TAU 72 MODELS AGREE THAT 12W WILL EXECUTE A POLEWARD TURN THOUGH
THE GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE EXACT TIMING AND FINAL HEADING. FOR THIS
REASON THE INITIAL TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE
LONG RANGE TRACK FORECAST PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO A
SIZABLE SPREAD IN INTENSITY SOLUTIONS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES AN INITIAL INTENSIFICATION PERIOD AFTER WHICH GRADUAL
DECLINE THROUGH TAU 72 AFTER WHICH MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN
REINTENSIFICATION AND DISSIPATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Another round of EWRC is in the horizon

[ElectricStorm]

This is absolutely a Cat 5 IMO

Either way, beautiful storm hopefully it's not destructive down the road

[Kingarabian]

Atleast tease us with 135kts. HIghway robbery if this isn't called a Cat.5. But they could always revise later.

[cycloneye]

Annular?

[cheezyWXguy]

Annular?

https://i.imgur.com/gNvDV4O.gif

I was wondering that earlier. IR makes a good case, but I think there’s too much banding on microwave

[Subtrop]

12W HINNAMNOR 220830 0600 26.8N 135.4E WPAC 130 928
12W HINNAMNOR 220830 1200 26.6N 133.6E WPAC 140 917

[MarioProtVI]

12W HINNAMNOR 220830 0600 26.8N 135.4E WPAC 130 928
12W HINNAMNOR 220830 1200 26.6N 133.6E WPAC 140 917

About time

[InfernoFlameCat]

Cat 5. Nice. I think it will continue to intensify.

[ElectricStorm]

12W HINNAMNOR 220830 1800 26.3N 131.9E WPAC 140 920

[rileydoxsee98]

About time JTWC realized how much of a mistake they made and fixed it. Obviously from agency standpoint they can’t go above 140kt. But I suspect this peaked at 150-155kt. It has all the pointers to being an upper end Category 5, except the cloud tops. But at 26N in the summer you won’t pull deeper tops than a W ring. Basically WPac Dorian. I think it will replace here in the next few hours, then interact with 13W (former 98W) And weaken during the interaction but them rebound with another peak, possibly as high as 155-160knots over the 125 OHC waters of Kuroshio Current. Tropopause will also be colder and outflow will be better. If the structure allows it, it will reach T7.5 before it lifts above the 27N latitude. Probably strike Korea or Japan mainland as a Cat 2 but with monster wind field. 45-50 ACE here, easily will be highest in 2022. Could also be strongest, but knowing KING WPAC it will give us a clear cut T7.5 in October. But still, probably highest ACE storm this year

[FireRat]

Annular?

https://i.imgur.com/gNvDV4O.gif

Looks amazing, almost like if this were WPAC's Andrew

[tolakram]

SLIDER proxy visible

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=himawari&sec=full_disk&x=9114&y=5542&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[tolakram]

saved loop

[doomhaMwx]

Kitadaito airport
68kts sustained, 94kts gust, pressure of 964mb.

RORK 302000Z AUTO 23068G94KT 0500 // BKN003 OVC007 //////CB 27/26 Q0964

 https://twitter.com/CyanideCN_/status/1564708381708861441

[skyline385]

Radar looks so good




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hayabusa]

AMSU estimate on 8/30 @ 1037Z was 148 knots

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
SUPER TYPHOON 12W
Tuesday 30aug22 Time: 1037 UTC
Latitude: 26.54 Longitude: 134.01
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 13 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 927 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 148 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -34.7 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.8885
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.912
RMW: 11 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1003
Satellite: NOAA-19
ATCF data for Month: 08 Day: 30 Time (UTC): 1200

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it's ERC time again, probably not a Cat 5 anymore at this point but depending on this upcoming interaction with 13W it should have another chance to bomb out again.