ATL: DANIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2022083112, , BEST, 0, 375N, 466W, 25, 1016, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, SPAWNINVEST, al752022 to al932022

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal932022.dat

[USTropics]

93L has a high chance of becoming the first hurricane in the North Atlantic basin this season. Early model runs indicate a potential threat to Azores islands as well. It would be so 2022 to have the first hurricane form around 39-40N and landfall in Azores: another strange note to a rather bizarre season so far.

[Iceresistance]

That escalated very quickly!

It's now at 60/70%!

[wxman57]

We are initiating advisories now. Looks like it is at least a TD and possibly already a TS. Waiting for scatterometer pass to confirm. Could be an interesting storm for Europe. It'll be Danielle, as 91L will take its time.

[aspen]

We are initiating advisories now. Looks like it is at least a TD and possibly already a TS. Waiting for scatterometer pass to confirm. Could be an interesting storm for Europe. It'll be Danielle, as 91L will take its time.

So this has a chance of becoming a named storm before the end of the day?

[kevin]

Looks like 2022 doesn't want to end August without a single NS. Because I think there's a pretty good chance that this gets named before the end of the day.

[wx98]

Even if it doesn’t get named operationally today this could be a case where cyclogenesis gets backed up in post season. August may not quite make it after all.

[wxman57]

We are initiating advisories now. Looks like it is at least a TD and possibly already a TS. Waiting for scatterometer pass to confirm. Could be an interesting storm for Europe. It'll be Danielle, as 91L will take its time.

So this has a chance of becoming a named storm before the end of the day?

Unfortunately, we are not the official RSMC of the basin, the NHC is. They appear to be happy to wait. Look for their development chances within 48 hrs to rise to 80% or so in their next update. They may start advisories as a depression this afternoon. If we get a good ASCAT pass in a few hours then it may start out as Danielle.

[wxman57]

Even if it doesn’t get named operationally today this could be a case where cyclogenesis gets backed up in post season. August may not quite make it after all.

This system will be around for a while. I'm becoming confident it will be the first hurricane of the season. Could reach Portugal or France at hurricane strength. Question is, will it still be tropical then?

[Category5Kaiju]

Even if it doesn’t get named operationally today this could be a case where cyclogenesis gets backed up in post season. August may not quite make it after all.

This system will be around for a while. I'm becoming confident it will be the first hurricane of the season. Could reach Portugal or France at hurricane strength. Question is, will it still be tropical then?

I mean it is an interesting thought, but bona fide hurricanes threatening Europe are rare but not unheard of. Vince 2005 and Ophelia 2017 come to mind.

[Ntxw]

Yeah 91L got all the attention but 93L should be the dominant system for awhile. I'll guess cat 2 peak.

[aspen]

Even if it doesn’t get named operationally today this could be a case where cyclogenesis gets backed up in post season. August may not quite make it after all.

This system will be around for a while. I'm becoming confident it will be the first hurricane of the season. Could reach Portugal or France at hurricane strength. Question is, will it still be tropical then?

I mean it is an interesting thought, but bona fide hurricanes threatening Europe are rare but not unheard of. Vince 2005 and Ophelia 2017 come to mind.

Don’t forget Leslie ‘18. It’s second and strongest hurricane peak was while it was in the NE Atlantic heading towards Europe, and was rather close to staying fully tropical all the way.

[MississippiWx]

Well, this isn't surprising. The warmest waters relative to normal in the Atlantic are in the subtropics. Heck, even 91L isn't supposed to ramp up until it starts recurving. 93L certainly looks to be a TC already.

[Nancy Smar]

TXNT21 KNES 311213
TCSNTL
CCA

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93L)

B. 31/1130Z

C. 37.5N

D. 45.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CORR FOR POSITION ERROR. GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS
IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[ElectricStorm]

Well this will be interesting, really good chance this becomes a hurricane

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1564972721196376071

[Europa non è lontana]

Up in Europe here, keeping a close eye - the 0z Euro was very concerning, showing threats to Galicia as a tropical system; and the 06z GFS also showed a landfall on Galicia as a transitioning system. Time-wise, it's very far out, but it's an outcome that seems like it's within the realm of possibility.

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1564972721196376071

Time to organize some protests. We cannot let this stand! No August name systems!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1564972721196376071

Has until 8:00pm Eastern tonight, otherwise it'll be counted as a September system.

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT has missed the system completely, twice!