Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

[al78]

It is not just the tropics, the whole Northern Hemsphere has been freaky when it comes to anomalous weather. The atmosphere has been persistently blocked for almost the whole year so far. Europe is suffering its worst drought in 500 years, and the UK smashed its previous record highest temperature in a July heatwave. Drought is affecting much of China and parts of the U.S. These blocking events and resultant stagnant weather patterns are related to Rossby waves becoming locked into a particular phase with persistent ridging across large regions (drought) and persistent troughing (floods) in other regions. I wonder if there is some significance of the blocked Northern hemisphere atmosphere when it comes to trying to explain why the Atlantic hurricane season has been so quiet during a period where significant activity should have taken off by now.

[Astromanía]

What is the record for the delay first hurricane to form in the ATL season?

[ElectricStorm]

What is the record for the delay first hurricane to form in the ATL season?

Well 1914 had none, so probably that

[psyclone]

We don't know what we don't know...but something tells me whatever it is we don't know is wildly important. What a head scratcher this season is. we've become so averse to "season cancel"...which is mostly impatience...but when it needs legit consideration a thread like this ends up delayed. fascinating. Something is definitely wrong...but betting on extremely anomalous events usually busts...so the current dead state of the tropics (even if we end up normal or below) is not likely sustainable. Even in a slow year we're entitled to action...and the weather community (which thrives on action and impatience) risks going from one extreme to the next as they initially overestimate, then underestimate, the potential of the season.

[CyclonicFury]

The issue in 2013 seemed to be a thermohaline circulation collapse that led to a spring-like pattern persisting over the Atlantic. 2022 seems to be a lot different.

Bonnie initially appeared to be a red flag at first, when it was over the MDR. It looked like it could become a rare late June deep tropics hurricane if it had stayed a bit farther north. However, it took way longer than expected to develop and ended up developing in the SW Caribbean, which is still an unusual genesis area for early in the season. After Bonnie, a lull was expected, and it seemed normal. Until mid-August arrived and we had nothing but modelstorms.

I would still wager on some sort of increase in activity. September will likely have at least a few storms, and I'd be extremely surprised if we went all of September without a hurricane. Then again, I am extremely surprised that a completely dead August is beginning to appear likely in a La Niña season. Perhaps the October Caribbean season will not be affected by the same issues that we are seeing now?

[Spacecoast]

We don't know what we don't know.....

And we overestimate our ability to predict what is essentially unpredictable. Even with herculean efforts, millions of data points, and billions of calculations performed by supercomputers, our ability is limited to short term forecasts, with limited accuracy.

"Two states differing by imperceptible amounts may eventually evolve into two considerably different states ... If, then, there is any error whatever in observing the present state—and in any real system such errors seem inevitable—an acceptable prediction of an instantaneous state in the distant future may well be impossible....In view of the inevitable inaccuracy and incompleteness of weather observations, precise very-long-range forecasting would seem to be nonexistent." - Edward Lorenz 1963 (Meteorologist, and accidental founder of chaos theory).

[Category5Kaiju]

I also think that mid-level dry air is going to have to be factored at a much higher level in terms of its potential to cap a season than before, especially when it comes down to seasonal predictions. Clearly, as we are seeing now, that one factor alone is really giving the Atlantic a headache, and I think more research should be done in terms of predicting when mid-level dry air will be an issue for a particular season. Maybe there are a set of recurring, reliable maritime or atmospheric conditions that can manifest during the summer that could be interpreted as warning signs that mid-level dry air may be persistent into the peak season?

[hurricanehunter69]

Whatever happens going forward, I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if forecasters decide to weigh ENSO "orders" more deeply when making seasonal predictions. For example, perhaps a future season that features an impending first year La Nina is treated with a higher potential to generate high levels of activity compared to a future season that features an impending third year La Nina. I think one thing we learned from this season is that having a prolonged La Nina may actually be very detrimental for an active Atlantic and that a periodic warm ENSO state, let alone an El Nino, is necessary to recharge the Atlantic for future years' worth of activity, even though that El Nino year may mean sacrificing an Atlantic season's above average activity.

With that being said, I think of La Ninas as "fuel tanks" that power the Atlantic, and as time goes on, if the "fuel tank" is left on, it will gradually deplete and eventually run out. A third year La Nina is like the tank running out of fuel. An El Nino is like a period where a muzzle is inserted into the tank to pour fuel into it, and then the subsequent first year La Nina is like the tank sending off its first bursts of fuel to the Atlantic engine. At least, hopefully that analogy makes sense

Makes perfect sense to me, I think you are spot on with this in a sense, the Atlantic has just run out of steam, or most likely the pattern is just changing and we are beginning to gravitate toward having a few quiet season…my outlook is this won’t be the only below average season in the near future. Look at 2010, 2011, 2012. The atlantic was dead for 3 years after those 3 above average seasons on a row. Could something similar be on the way now?

2013 was the result of thermohaline collapse and wasn't completely recovered until late 2014--not sure why people keep completely missing this point.

Now the big rush to see who can figure out what happened this year?

[skyline385]

My season cancel barometer is the EPAC. If it manages to produce another hurricane before the Atlantic it's probably it.

Looks like you might be getting your wish in the EPAC

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1564657493128531968





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[FireRat]

We don't know what we don't know...but something tells me whatever it is we don't know is wildly important. What a head scratcher this season is. we've become so averse to "season cancel"...which is mostly impatience...but when it needs legit consideration a thread like this ends up delayed. fascinating. Something is definitely wrong...but betting on extremely anomalous events usually busts...so the current dead state of the tropics (even if we end up normal or below) is not likely sustainable. Even in a slow year we're entitled to action...and the weather community (which thrives on action and impatience) risks going from one extreme to the next as they initially overestimate, then underestimate, the potential of the season.

Excellent post psyclone, I think similarly.
This season is truly an anomaly so far, and here we all are anticipating the next storm. Imagine if now everyone underestimates 2022 only for September - November to bring us 15+ NS and several majors once the subtropics cool during Fall.

We may end up with a season like 1962 or a 1998, the possibilities are that wildly extreme at this point...
We may either end up with a dead season after all, or on the other hand we could see a super backloaded WPAC style barrage of storms and be dealing with "Scary Shary" come Halloween, in the Caribbean.

[Category5Kaiju]

Makes perfect sense to me, I think you are spot on with this in a sense, the Atlantic has just run out of steam, or most likely the pattern is just changing and we are beginning to gravitate toward having a few quiet season…my outlook is this won’t be the only below average season in the near future. Look at 2010, 2011, 2012. The atlantic was dead for 3 years after those 3 above average seasons on a row. Could something similar be on the way now?

2013 was the result of thermohaline collapse and wasn't completely recovered until late 2014--not sure why people keep completely missing this point.

Now the big rush to see who can figure out what happened this year?

One thing's for sure; 2013 was an unexpected massive bust for many forecasters, and after methodological revisions were made after that year, one would have imagined that a bust like that would never really happen again!

[tolakram]

My season cancel barometer is the EPAC. If it manages to produce another hurricane before the Atlantic it's probably it.

Looks like you might be getting your wish in the EPAC

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1564657493128531968?s=21&t=iHoG4o4Ys2uQ6h1_mmLssg


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Shows the GFS modelcane that was in the gulf for the last 2 weeks. Why is it believable now?

[skyline385]

My season cancel barometer is the EPAC. If it manages to produce another hurricane before the Atlantic it's probably it.

Looks like you might be getting your wish in the EPAC

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1564657493128531968?s=21&t=iHoG4o4Ys2uQ6h1_mmLssg


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Shows the GFS modelcane that was in the gulf for the last 2 weeks. Why is it believable now?

Because this one is on the Euro and CMC as well. Webb also explains why the “signal for this system is very strong” in his tweet.


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[Kingarabian]

Euro and CMC have been developing this in the EPAC, the GFS finally let go of it developing in the WGOM and is playing catchup.

[CyclonicFury]

There is a chance 93L could become a hurricane fairly soon, despite its high latitude. 2013 did not have a hurricane until September 11th so if models verify, 2022 could jump ahead of 2013 in that regard. Model support for 91L is more inconsistent, but the GFS has been very consistent in making it a hurricane.

[ConvergenceZone]

While I wouldn't call this a dead season, I think we will know based on what happens during the next 3 weeks..... I still think 2 to 3 more storms will form in the month of September and then 1 in October before the season winds down.... One thing nice about a super slow se3ason is that it saved me subscribing to Fubo during the summer since I usually do that to get the weather channel(since I love the live coverage).....

[CyclonicFury]

Danielle is likely to become a hurricane, which should give 2022 its first hurricane before 2001, 2002 and 2013. 91L still seems to have a split in the model consensus, with some models dissipating it completely and others making it a strong hurricane after recurving.

[psyclone]

August was a complete yard sale but we still have 2 prime months remaining in hurricane season. the seasonal analog i like to think of is the cold/snow season. losing August for canes is like losing December for snow & cold. By any measure it's a massive hit but we still have prime time left. No one up north sells their snow blower on new year's day just because December was a flop. The season could end up as a total fail...but we need aboot 1500 hours to confirm and we should recognize that's probably not the most likely outcome...although it is possible.

[SoupBone]

While I wouldn't call this a dead season, I think we will know based on what happens during the next 3 weeks..... I still think 2 to 3 more storms will form in the month of September and then 1 in October before the season winds down.... One thing nice about a super slow se3ason is that it saved me subscribing to Fubo during the summer since I usually do that to get the weather channel(since I love the live coverage).....

Well, some are saying that Danielle could generate enough ACE to bring it to near normal for the season. So it's either based on number of storms or ACE. I personally think dead season based on a lack of named systems, I don't personally use ACE.

[ConvergenceZone]

While I wouldn't call this a dead season, I think we will know based on what happens during the next 3 weeks..... I still think 2 to 3 more storms will form in the month of September and then 1 in October before the season winds down.... One thing nice about a super slow se3ason is that it saved me subscribing to Fubo during the summer since I usually do that to get the weather channel(since I love the live coverage).....

Well, some are saying that Danielle could generate enough ACE to bring it to near normal for the season. So it's either based on number of storms or ACE. I personally think dead season based on a lack of named systems, I don't personally use ACE.

Yea, I'm not one who bases whether it's active on just "ace" alone... I base is on numbers.... Since the NHC uses numbers in their predictions to determine if it's active or not, so do I............ Using ace to determine if a season is active or not, never made much sense to me.........