Category5Kaiju wrote:WiscoWx02 wrote:https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1564791024332836864
It's not just Andy Hazelton anymore guys. Yes this is a SSTA analysis but let's face it, there are many other similarities beyond this.
Did this year have a THC collapse? Was 2013 a solid La Nina year? Did 2013 have crazy warm MDR sst anomalies? Did 2013 have an active early EPAC with major hurricanes? Did 2013 have NSs in August? I'm still unsure why people are comparing 2022 with 2013; yes both seem to be inactive, but the background reasons for why are so different.
I feel like there's a general, rather simplistic sort of idea that "we should lump 2013 with 2022 because both were inactive," but there are actually a wide number of differences between the two years that makes comparisons between the two rather misleading, at least from the way I see things.
In my opinion, Webb isn't some random dude and to me, his thoughts carry a lot of weight compared to hobbyists on the internet. And remember, Andy said a few days ago that NOAA HRD has started including 2013 in their briefings since the last couple of weeks as well. Phil also came out today with a long thread which basically winded down to how this season is not behaving as expected previously. WxMan has been also saying for weeks about how something is wrong with the MDR and has reduced his numbers multiple times, including just today. WeatherTiger's live ACE model has been on a steep decline for a few weeks now and dropped the ACE today to 106 from 170 at start of August.
Webb also isn't saying that this season is 100% similar to 2013, he is just saying that we may potentially have a similar bust on our hands looking at the SST anomalies. His point about how deep-layer stability is ignored in seasonal forecasts seems valid to me as we have seen how much the NATL has struggled this year and one of the reasons has been the lack on instability in the tropics.
). Not much of a reliable pattern here. Now September is going to be a month to watch. It remains to be seen if September all of a sudden turns more favorable and makes up for the lack of activity in August, but we do know that it's somewhat likely that we could even see 3 NSs form by this next month's start, with 91L, the 20/40 wave, and the subtropical thing. There are also some rumblings of what could be a longer-tracking system by later next week, so we'll have to wait and see. 
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We’ll see at least see one for sure IMO
