Texas Fall 2022

[Texas Snowman]

Well, as Ntxw alluded to yesterday, we’re now within a month of the start of meteorological fall.

So with that, here it is, one of my favorite threads of the year, the official Texas Fall 2022 thread. We’ll move over there in a few weeks on the opening day of dove season, on September 1st, when the meteorological autumn season finally begins. (Good riddance Summer 2022!!!)

Hopefully, our upcoming discussions will include some very beneficial fall rainfall across Texas, some strong and early cool fronts pushing through, and no lingering summertime heat.

We can all dream, right?

[wxman57]

Well, as Ntxw alluded to yesterday, we’re now within a month of the start of meteorological fall.

So with that, here it is, one of my favorite threads of the year, the official Texas Fall 2022 thread. We’ll move over there in a few weeks on the opening day of dove season, on September 1st, when the meteorological autumn season finally begins. (Good riddance Summer 2022!!!)

Hopefully, our upcoming discussions will include some very beneficial fall rainfall across Texas, some strong and early cool fronts pushing through, and no lingering summertime heat.

We can all dream, right?

I will agree that 5+ hour bike rides are somewhat less enjoyable when the temperature is above 100 degrees. I can take it, but my wife cannot. I've enjoyed the cooler high temps over the past week (97-98F). I did record just over 3 inches of rain in July, mainly because the storms tended to concentrate in SW Houston. The rest of the city didn't get nearly as much rain. The high of 104F was just a little too warm a few weeks ago. I'd like to see high temps in the 85-90 degree range for optimum cycling enjoyment. Once the daily highs are closer to 90, we can resume our 40+ mile bike rides up to The Heights in NW Houston for lunch. Typically, the first cold front arrives in southeast Texas around September 21-28. Another 7 weeks to go.

[Ntxw]

There are two forks with -ENSO (I'm including cold neutrals to widen the analogs pool in the beginning). The early analogs start the same, early Fall begins hot that stays above normal. Nov-Dec for the third+ year events turns cold (2000, 2013, etc). We shouldn't see another hot December this year. There are some subtle correlations between hot July/August is a signal for cooler Decembers, vice versa using DFW's metrics.

For the precip front I'm afraid the news isn't that good. Fall in a Nina is a strong signal for dry weather dominating. There will be some rainfall with the change in seasons but unless some big tropical event occurs, we'll continue the theme of more deficits than surpluses.

[South Texas Storms]

I don't think I've ever been more excited for fall than I am this year. This summer has been brutal. The first cold front can't get here soon enough.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

There are two forks with -ENSO (I'm including cold neutrals to widen the analogs pool in the beginning). The early analogs start the same, early Fall begins hot that stays above normal. Nov-Dec for the third+ year events turns cold (2000, 2013, etc). We shouldn't see another hot December this year. There are some subtle correlations between hot July/August is a signal for cooler Decembers, vice versa using DFW's metrics.

For the precip front I'm afraid the news isn't that good. Fall in a Nina is a strong signal for dry weather dominating. There will be some rainfall with the change in seasons but unless some big tropical event occurs, we'll continue the theme of more deficits than surpluses.

Youre much more experienced in this than i am, but I also want to start incorporating not only the static SST's, but also where they are trending at that moment. Models are predicting Nina to start transitioning towards a neutral state. Are there winters similar to this type of state? Starting to realize the importance of not only the current static temps, but where the temps are trending. (Trending temps indicating what the winds are in those areas.)

[Ntxw]

There are two forks with -ENSO (I'm including cold neutrals to widen the analogs pool in the beginning). The early analogs start the same, early Fall begins hot that stays above normal. Nov-Dec for the third+ year events turns cold (2000, 2013, etc). We shouldn't see another hot December this year. There are some subtle correlations between hot July/August is a signal for cooler Decembers, vice versa using DFW's metrics.

For the precip front I'm afraid the news isn't that good. Fall in a Nina is a strong signal for dry weather dominating. There will be some rainfall with the change in seasons but unless some big tropical event occurs, we'll continue the theme of more deficits than surpluses.

Youre much more experienced in this than i am, but I also want to start incorporating not only the static SST's, but also where they are trending at that moment. Models are predicting Nina to start transitioning towards a neutral state. Are there winters similar to this type of state? Starting to realize the importance of not only the current static temps, but where the temps are trending. (Trending temps indicating what the winds are in those areas.)

For ENSO we are only good out a couple of months. Fall and early winter transitions favor strengthening of whichever ENSO state is dominant. Right now trades are ripping in the eq pacific with a growing cold pool beneath. Likely this event will peak NDJ and weaken February. It's looking like -1.5C-1.7C is certainly attainable so this may be the strongest of the 3 Ninas so far. I think there will be a hard switch from hot to cold sometime late Fall similar to 2000 and 2013 with familiar ascending high sunspot solar cycle as those two years.

There are no WWBs (west winds) in the viewable forecast to halt the deepening of the current Nina state yet.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

"The most recent year on record where the Atlantic basin did not see a hurricane until the month of September was 2013."

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 4990405634

[SoupBone]

Fall is coming! I "feel" it already starting to transition!

[Tireman4]

Bring it!! #neversummer

[SoupBone]

My trees are already starting their yearly Fall routine. I hope this is a sign of the slow switch to Fall.

[Brent]

My trees are already starting their yearly Fall routine. I hope this is a sign of the slow switch to Fall.

Tbh with my forecast it's pretty much already fall no sign of any extreme heat coming back and lots of rain chances

[TropicalTundra]

Tomorrow's the first day of meteorological fall! Sweater season is on the horizon

[Brent]

Tomorrow's the first day of meteorological fall! Sweater season is on the horizon

So ready to feel some crisp fall air

[Iceresistance]

Welcome to September!

[Clearcloudz]

Texas drought improved a lot. Could see even more reduction as the models are showing a lot of juice for Texas this weekend and next week.

[gpsnowman]

Tomorrow's the first day of meteorological fall! Sweater season is on the horizon

So ready to feel some crisp fall air

Agreed. I am enjoying the current pattern but in a few weeks the first true fall front will make its way down and we can open the windows at night.

[jasons2k]

This came from Jeff earlier this morning:

Periods of heavy rainfall likely over the next 4-5 days.

Wet pattern that started in early August will continue as same features continue to come together to produce scattered to numerous rains across the area. Rain chances will begin to increase today and especially on Friday and into the holiday weekend as a weak frontal boundary, deep tropical moisture, and several disturbances aloft move across the region.

Moisture remains in the 90th percentile for early September early this morning with PWS of 2.2-2.4 inches over the area. With modest heating, expect scattered storms to develop by mid to late morning. Heavy rainfall will be possible along with frequent lightning. Frontal boundary begins to approach from the N/NE on Friday and expect a gradual increase in storm frequency and organization as this boundary sinks into the area and stalls over the weekend.

Forecast soundings over the weekend suggest a very tropical air mass with PWS approaching 2.5 inches over the area and a saturated deep layer up to 15,000ft will support excessive rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour. Slow storm motions and/or cell training could anchor these type of rainfall rates over areas leading to flash flooding. There is cause for some concern with a stalling boundary over the area that could help organize slow moving storms. There is little confidence on where any issues may happen, but the holiday weekend is looking wet.

Aside: for those heading to the Hill Country or SW TX this weekend, high rain chances and similar flood threat will be in place for this part of Texas. Grounds have become increasingly saturated over the last few weeks, and with potential rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour, significant rises and flash floods on normally dry or slowly flowing creeks and rivers will be possible. Remain aware of the weather and be prepared to act quickly if near creeks and rivers in the Hilly Country or SW TX this weekend.

Grounds are starting to become wet over the area, especially west of I-45 where rainfall of 1-5 inches has occurred over the last few days. Not expecting widespread flooding, but increasing run-off will be possible this weekend with high rainfall rates. Think the biggest threat will be street flooding as is usual under rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour. Will have to watch daily trends to see if the flood threat at any particular time or location is greater on some days.

WPC has placed much of the area under a slight risk for flash flooding for the weekend.

Tropics:

There are several areas of interest over the Atlantic, but these will be no threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Lindner

[gpsnowman]

Getting a heavy tropical downpour here in Irving. No wind with huge drops falling straight down. Beautiful to watch.
Edit: Well it is over and the sun is out.

[Iceresistance]

Showers here, strongly thinking of a 2nd wave later today.

[Rgv20]

September is the wettest month for the Rio Grande Valley...Don't disappoint us September!