2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Steve]

"......in other news this evening, US officials pan the thousands of reported UFO sightings over the tropical Atlantic this past month. Senior advisors claim the reported lights were actually a fleet of cloud-seeding Monsanto drones testing the affects of RoundUp on budding tropical disturbances this season. Renown tropical weather prognosticators were contacted regarding the potential impact to the season's Hurricane Season. Thus far all have declined to comment....".

Monsanto is worthy of a golf clap, but you had the chance to have dropped an annual dy-no-mat reference there. I’ve gotten it in the last 15 years or more and was trying to avoid it. But guilty now I suppose.

It's now past 0z so we officially had a 0 NS August! Unreal

Right?!? Never thought I’d see the year it would happen but here we are…maybe September will be different? We’ll at least see one for sure IMO

September will probably have several. I wouldn't be shocked if 93L forms tomorrow and 91L could form at any time over the next few days. After that, I think we'll see a couple MDR storms during the month and maybe a storm or two elsewhere.

I don’t read the how many storms form in x month threads so I don’t know if
There is an established site groupthink regarding September. We are getting 2 or 3 the first week. Maybe 3 additional later in the month (after the tenth) if MJO goes back into the Indian Ocean. So My thinking is we are at least I/j heading into October. Farther down the list would likely mean 1 or more systems developing along the US Atlantic Coast and pulling out.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Well this now officially only the 4th time the Atlantic has never had a named storm in the month of August in recorded history. It is the first La Nina season without a August storm on record which is impressive in itself

[Category5Kaiju]

Really puts into perspective this slow start, it is also hilarious how the only season to have a slower start since 1951 is 1988 with Gilbert

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1565006485041516544?s=20&t=mRiIu7scjjuCDLzvwC8ldA

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1565033543788425216?s=20&t=mRiIu7scjjuCDLzvwC8ldA

And Helene. And Joan. 1988 (it was also a La Niña year lol) really compensated for its dearth of early season activity with some very nasty long trackers in September and October. Who knows if 2022 will do the same??

[Fancy1001]

Well this now officially only the 4th time the Atlantic has never had a named storm in the month of August in recorded history. It is the first La Nina season without a August storm on record which is impressive in itself

I thought this was the fifth time.

[Fancy1001]

Well this now officially only the 4th time the Atlantic has never had a named storm in the month of August in recorded history. It is the first La Nina season without a August storm on record which is impressive in itself

Five. 1997, 1961, 1941, 1929, and now 2022.

[Hammy]

Really puts into perspective this slow start, it is also hilarious how the only season to have a slower start since 1951 is 1988 with Gilbert

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1565006485041516544?s=20&t=mRiIu7scjjuCDLzvwC8ldA

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1565033543788425216?s=20&t=mRiIu7scjjuCDLzvwC8ldA

And Helene. And Joan. 1988 (it was also a La Niña year lol) really compensated for its dearth of early season activity with some very nasty long trackers in September and October. Who knows if 2022 will do the same??

Everything's falling into place with my 1988 analog, the next week or two will really put that to the test

[Category5Kaiju]

Well this now officially only the 4th time the Atlantic has never had a named storm in the month of August in recorded history. It is the first La Nina season without a August storm on record which is impressive in itself

Five. 1997, 1961, 1941, 1929, and now 2022.

While I am unsure what ENSO states 1941 and 1929 were, it's quite intriguing to say the least that with the exception of the 1997 Super El Nino year, 1929, 1941, and 1961 all eventually went on to feature at least one extremely strong and destructive hurricane, whether it was in September or October.

[aspen]

Really puts into perspective this slow start, it is also hilarious how the only season to have a slower start since 1951 is 1988 with Gilbert

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1565006485041516544?s=20&t=mRiIu7scjjuCDLzvwC8ldA

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1565033543788425216?s=20&t=mRiIu7scjjuCDLzvwC8ldA

And Helene. And Joan. 1988 (it was also a La Niña year lol) really compensated for its dearth of early season activity with some very nasty long trackers in September and October. Who knows if 2022 will do the same??

Everything's falling into place with my 1988 analog, the next week or two will really put that to the test

That 9/6 wave might end up as this year’s Gilbert — the long tracking, low latitude, mid-September MDR-born major — even if it doesn’t get nearly as strong. Looks to stay at a pretty low latitude and could form around the same day.

[skyline385]

Papin hypothesising that the enhanced wave breaking this season was partially responsible for shifting the cold pool towards the equator. Interesting theory but also important is the fact that he acknowledged enhanced wave breaking and PVS for the 2022 season.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1565313628487634944





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[NDG]

Papin hypothesising that the enhanced wave breaking this season was partially responsible for shifting the cold pool towards the equator. Interesting theory but also important is the fact that he acknowledged enhanced wave breaking and PVS for the 2022 season.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1565313628487634944?s=21&t=RDZ1caQqJdMhOqgtSZlDLg


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Well of course it makes sense, the same high latitude ridging that caused the AWBs is how the waters underneath the ridge warmed up in the north Atlantic.
This pattern is also thought to be a result from the synoptic pattern in the North Pacific.
This needs to be further studied by the experts to potentially be incorporated into their hurricane season forecasts, is definitely a big factor to consider.

[skyline385]

Papin hypothesising that the enhanced wave breaking this season was partially responsible for shifting the cold pool towards the equator. Interesting theory but also important is the fact that he acknowledged enhanced wave breaking and PVS for the 2022 season.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1565313628487634944?s=21&t=RDZ1caQqJdMhOqgtSZlDLg


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Well of course it makes sense, the same high latitude ridging that caused the AWBs is how the waters underneath the ridge warmed up in the north Atlantic.
This pattern is also thought to be a result from the synoptic pattern in the North Pacific.
This needs to be further studied by the experts to potentially be incorporated into their hurricane season forecasts, is definitely a big factor to consider.

It most definitely is, along with the instability factor Webb talked about. There were a lot of skeptics whenever wave breaking was mentioned this season so it’s nice to get a confirmation from someone at the NHC directly


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[NDG]

August overall, the reason for no storms during the month. History in the making for a La Nina year.

[cajungal]

Wondering if September will also be quiet. Good news for us on the Gulf coast recovering from Ida

[tolakram]

Papin hypothesising that the enhanced wave breaking this season was partially responsible for shifting the cold pool towards the equator. Interesting theory but also important is the fact that he acknowledged enhanced wave breaking and PVS for the 2022 season.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1565313628487634944?s=21&t=RDZ1caQqJdMhOqgtSZlDLg


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Excellent thread with a conclusion that I think lines up with why it's not know if this is THE reason or not.

Here's a direct link to that journal paper.

North Atlantic Rossby Wave Breaking during the Hurricane Season: Association with Tropical and Extratropical Variability
https://journals.ametsoc.org/configurable/content/journals$002fclim$002f32$002f13$002fjcli-d-18-0299.1.xml?t:ac=journals%24002fclim%24002f32%24002f13%24002fjcli-d-18-0299.1.xml

[Category5Kaiju]

Wondering if September will also be quiet. Good news for us on the Gulf coast recovering from Ida

Quiet for the Gulf Coast or the Atlantic basin in general? Typically there’s a secondary peak in hazard in the Gulf Coast (mainly Florida though) in October, though not sure about the Texas or Louisiana area. I mean, after Laura and Ida, I would hope you guys get a nice break this year

[NotSparta]

Papin hypothesising that the enhanced wave breaking this season was partially responsible for shifting the cold pool towards the equator. Interesting theory but also important is the fact that he acknowledged enhanced wave breaking and PVS for the 2022 season.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1565313628487634944?s=21&t=RDZ1caQqJdMhOqgtSZlDLg


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Well of course it makes sense, the same high latitude ridging that caused the AWBs is how the waters underneath the ridge warmed up in the north Atlantic.
This pattern is also thought to be a result from the synoptic pattern in the North Pacific.
This needs to be further studied by the experts to potentially be incorporated into their hurricane season forecasts, is definitely a big factor to consider.

It most definitely is, along with the instability factor Webb talked about. There were a lot of skeptics whenever wave breaking was mentioned this season so it’s nice to get a confirmation from someone at the NHC directly


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I think it was more that it had become a buzzword and barely anyone who talked about wavebreaking even knew what it was

[tolakram]

Well of course it makes sense, the same high latitude ridging that caused the AWBs is how the waters underneath the ridge warmed up in the north Atlantic.
This pattern is also thought to be a result from the synoptic pattern in the North Pacific.
This needs to be further studied by the experts to potentially be incorporated into their hurricane season forecasts, is definitely a big factor to consider.

It most definitely is, along with the instability factor Webb talked about. There were a lot of skeptics whenever wave breaking was mentioned this season so it’s nice to get a confirmation from someone at the NHC directly


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I think it was more that it had become a buzzword and barely anyone who talked about wavebreaking even knew what it was

Exactly, and I'm still convinced most that used it were not aware of what it actually was, with some notable exceptions.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think the even bigger question is, how long will this wave breaking last? I’d have to imagine that maybe, just maybe, us entering September or October could generate a much different playfield compared to July or August. Especially October, when the W Atlantic becomes the area to watch and where CAGs can spawn tropical systems

[cajungal]

Wondering if September will also be quiet. Good news for us on the Gulf coast recovering from Ida

Quiet for the Gulf Coast or the Atlantic basin in general? Typically there’s a secondary peak in hazard in the Gulf Coast (mainly Florida though) in October, though not sure about the Texas or Louisiana area. I mean, after Laura and Ida, I would hope you guys get a nice break this year

In general. Usually on Sept our main threats on gulf coast come from the Caribbean

[Iceresistance]

I think the even bigger question is, how long will this wave breaking last? I’d have to imagine that maybe, just maybe, us entering September or October could generate a much different playfield compared to July or August. Especially October, when the W Atlantic becomes the area to watch and where CAGs can spawn tropical systems

With Typhoon Hinnamnor as a possibility to amplify the Jet Stream and break this stagnant pattern, September and October could become big players for this year's hurricane season.