ATL: EARL - Models

[sma10]

Final frame is in

https://i.imgur.com/84YTik1.gif

And 10 days away - a lifetime of changes ahead

[caneseddy]

Final frame is in

https://i.imgur.com/84YTik1.gif

Looks like it’s getting a bit too close to OBX when the run ends…

[skyline385]

Damn that’s not a good looking end to the Euro




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[Kingarabian]

Final frame is in

https://i.imgur.com/84YTik1.gif

And 10 days away - a lifetime of changes ahead

Yeah. Real time trends show some credence to the UKMET/Euro/CMC solutions of a weak system missing the initial trough.

[SFLcane]

This could be signs of the "typhoon".

[Kingarabian]

Damn that’s not a good looking end to the Euro

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220901/71488ce80cea4a8a205fbd4ef7cf79af.jpg


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A little uneasy run for SECONUS residents. But still could easily recurve since it's deepening very quickly at the end of the run.

[Kingarabian]

This could be signs of the "typhoon".

Typhoon is likely 3-4 weeks out before it can influence the synoptic pattern.

[SFLcane]

This could be signs of the "typhoon".

Typhoon is 3-4 weeks out before it can influence the synoptic pattern.

It's probably related to the the typhoon in my opinion adding more unpredicatbility. Curious to see the ensembles

[Kingarabian]

I think it has a lot to do with the unfavorable environment ahead of it over the next five days, allowing it to miss the initial trough.

[SFLcane]

I think it has a lot to do with the unfavorable environment ahead of it over the next five days, allowing it to miss the initial trough.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1565411837633601542

[SFLcane]

Euro run is nonsence EPS IS all out to sea.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS is @2200 miles ENE of the 12z ECMWF at 240 hours...

[skyline385]

Euro run is nonsence EPS IS all out to sea.

Ensemble solutions typically tend to trail behind the deterministic solution from what i have seen, i dunno if it’s because of the resolution. It’s best to wait a few runs before dismissing it.


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[Kingarabian]

Won't be a quick flip for all the models. But the trend is real.

[SFLcane]

Euro run is nonsence EPS IS all out to sea.

Ensemble solutions typically tend to trail behind the deterministic solution from what i have seen, i dunno if it’s because of the resolution. It’s best to wait a few runs before dismissing it.


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Could be. Well see

[SFLcane]

Won't be a quick flip for all the models. But the trend is real.

If the ensemble shifts maybe.

[Kingarabian]

I think it has a lot to do with the unfavorable environment ahead of it over the next five days, allowing it to miss the initial trough.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1565411837633601542?s=20&t=jcd6K1g8AmNqjwZuFm8lHw

Probable but the remnants are still lingering west of the dateline on the Euro, CMC, and GFS -- in the extra tropics.

[NDG]

In the shorter term the Euro still insists in 91L getting hit hard by dry westerly shear north of DR/PR.
If indeed the trough develops over the MS river valley in the 7-10 day range then conditions may improve over it if it still hanging around.

[NDG]

12z Euro operational is an outlier among its ensembles.

[LarryWx]

12z Euro operational is an outlier among its ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/7a2iTsK.png

Indeed, no leftward shift of the EPS.