ATL: DANIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SconnieCane]

Annoying mid-latitude name thief. I was mentally calling 91L "Danielle" nearly a week ago (or might be not quite that, feels like it) when multiple runs of the "King" had it as a MH near the Bahamas.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Danielle may not be your conventional deep tropics hurricane, but it might become stronger than anything in 2013 at this rate

The subtropics became the true MDR post-2010, IMHO. Seems like storms have a much easier time north of Bermuda than they do by the Cape Verde islands.

[cycloneye]

50KT.

AL, 05, 2022090118, , BEST, 0, 381N, 446W, 50, 1005, TS

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Danielle Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
700 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT DANIELLE IS STRENGTHENING
QUICKLY...

Satellite images indicate that the maximum winds associated with
Tropical Storm Danielle have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM GMT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 44.6W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 090 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

[Hammy]

50KT.

AL, 05, 2022090118, , BEST, 0, 381N, 446W, 50, 1005, TS

NHC seems like they're playing catch up at the moment with intensity. Good chance this was already a tropical storm before August ended (at least in our time zone)

[cycloneye]

50KT.

AL, 05, 2022090118, , BEST, 0, 381N, 446W, 50, 1005, TS

NHC seems like they're playing catch up at the moment with intensity. Good chance this was already a tropical storm before August ended (at least in our time zone)

They may go back at post season analysis.

[Category5Kaiju]

Danielle may not be your conventional deep tropics hurricane, but it might become stronger than anything in 2013 at this rate

Yeah that's why it's hard to get a season like 2013 where the strongest storm is a Category 1. You'd have to have every single storm get shut out. Can't have a single storm that falls through the cracks and gets strong like Danielle looks set to do

This is exactly why I'm almost never going to believe that 2013 will ever even remotely be a good analog year for this year (let alone 2023, 2024, 2025, and so forth). With the prospect of Danielle potentially making it to hurricane status (possibly even Cat 2+ assuming everything goes well for it), the 2013 comparisons will automatically fall into the drain.

[Sciencerocks]

[toad strangler]

ACE fans finally popping some corks

[Jelmergraaff]

Given the fact that the NHC gave an intermediate update at 7 PM GMT with winds of 60 mph (up from 40 mph at 3 PM GMT), I wouldn't be surprised if they would put it at 70 mph the coming advisory. Just short of hurricane strength, which means the actual intensification rate is a lot higher than predicted by the NHC this morning (in 2 days).

[ElectricStorm]

Tropical Storm Danielle Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

...DANIELLE INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 44.5W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[Jelmergraaff]

Peak intensity forecast now at 100 mph/85 kt. Does anyone know what has been the highest intensity for any tropical cyclone formed above 38 degrees N?

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 38.1N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 38.1N 44.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 38.0N 44.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 38.0N 44.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 38.2N 45.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 38.7N 44.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 40.5N 43.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 42.5N 41.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

[jaxfladude]

European threat(s) by a true fully TC system or ex-TC or a fish? Crazy season is crazy...Danielle about be a memorable named storm other where and how she formed and the time-span since last TC in the ATL Basin and the no hurricane streak from last season... or what?

[CrazyC83]

Given the anomalously warm water and low shear, I think Danielle could become a major hurricane easily.

[NotSparta]

Given the anomalously warm water and low shear, I think Danielle could become a major hurricane easily.

I feel like it'll fall just short because it takes a lot for the NHC to upgrade to major based only on satellite up at this latitude

[Category5Kaiju]

Given the anomalously warm water and low shear, I think Danielle could become a major hurricane easily.

I feel like it'll fall just short because it takes a lot for the NHC to upgrade to major based only on satellite up at this latitude

Ophelia and Epsilon must have really wowed the NHC members then

[Nuno]

Theres being conservative, and then there's...whatever this is. I would wager this is a bit more than 50kt?

[aspen]

Given the anomalously warm water and low shear, I think Danielle could become a major hurricane easily.

I feel like it'll fall just short because it takes a lot for the NHC to upgrade to major based only on satellite up at this latitude

Ophelia and Epsilon must have really wowed the NHC members then

Epsilon was upgraded based on recon. I forget if the NHC assessed Sam’s third peak as a major or just 95 kt.

[CrazyC83]

Theres being conservative, and then there's...whatever this is. I would wager this is a bit more than 50kt?

https://imgur.com/7sVmhGl

I'd go 60 kt personally based on that.

[Nuno]

Theres being conservative, and then there's...whatever this is. I would wager this is a bit more than 50kt?

https://imgur.com/7sVmhGl

I'd go 60 kt personally based on that.

I'd be okay with 60kt given the lack of direct available data. We'll see how strong it gets.