2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[WiscoWx02]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1565029401225486337




I know I have brought this up several times but...

[NDG]

I am in the same boat as well with Dr Phil, I believe it when I see it. That's why he went conservative for his next 2 weeks forecast, calling for near normal activity.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1565444880637128704

[Ntxw]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1565029401225486337/photo/1

I know I have brought this up several times but...

Wonder if it is correlation rather than causation. Nhem high latitudes have been quite warm just about every year since 2000. While it is warm, it is not limited to 2022.

[tolakram]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1565029401225486337/photo/1

I know I have brought this up several times but...

Wonder if it is correlation rather than causation. Nhem high latitudes have been quite warm just about every year since 2000. While it is warm, it is not limited to 2022.

I respectively think it's correlation due to the fact we've seen this pattern before and not experienced the same result. It's also a bit hasty IMO. We could experience an above normal delayed season for all we know.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1565029401225486337/photo/1

I know I have brought this up several times but...

Doesn't explain why 2005/2011 were above normal with the same pattern

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1565029401225486337/photo/1

I know I have brought this up several times but...

Doesn't explain why 2005/2011 were above normal with the same pattern

They were warm but nowhere close to 2022. I have been saying this for a while and have posted this SST map several times here but the warmth in the upper latitudes this year is in a league of it's own.





 https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1565439335750565888

[Ntxw]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1565029401225486337/photo/1

I know I have brought this up several times but...

Doesn't explain why 2005/2011 were above normal with the same pattern

They were warm but nowhere close to 2022. I have been saying this for a while and have posted this SST map several times here but the warmth in the upper latitudes this year is in a league of it's own.

The past several years they have been warm too. It's a long term correlation you can pull up any modern year and it will outdo just about most past years before it, minus an anomalous year or two. So it's not a definitive piece. Now you can make the argument the atmosphere this year has much more pronounced heat wave/ridges across the NHEM continents then yes.

[aspen]

A couple things I’m starting to wonder:

1.) Will we see much or any quality after Danielle? Models have been all over the place/trending down with 91L, and it’s possible it never develops or spends another week as an invest. It’s unclear if this pattern that has resulted in nearly unprecedented wave breaking and dry air will ever let up. Mark Sudduth has mentioned ways it could change, but there’s never any certainty in situations like this. We could see an active late season like the Euro and climo suggests, or the abnormally unfavorable base state could stay in place all throughout November and yield an 8-12 NS, <50-75 ACE season at the most.

2.) Why did the subtropics get so ridiculously warm this summer? I’ve been a fan of the volcanic forcing theories, but after reading one of the studies about the Tonga eruption’s water vapor plume and possible impacts, it’s unclear if the NHem would be seeing the effects of it this early. Maybe it could impact next hurricane season, or maybe many future seasons because the study says this plume might take an entire decade to circulate out. If the subtropical warming and Tonga eruption are just freak coincidences, then what was responsible for the former, and can we predict it for future seasons?

[Category5Kaiju]

I was looking back at the 2013 indicators thread for fun, and on September 2, S2K user Hammy made this rather interesting but important comment then:

"There is literally nothing over Africa as far as waves go, its almost completely convection-free east of 98L all the way across the ITCZ to Ethiopia."

As far as I can tell, Africa as of now looks pretty convectively active. Just shows you another reason (along with Danielle's somewhat likely shot at a decent hurricane strength system, like Cat 2 at least if all goes well) why 2013 is a poor analog year for this year (and will highly likely be so for future seasons)

[Hammy]

The monsoon trough amplification is being drastically overlooked as a cause of July and August inactivity and I feel too many people are jumping on the wave breaking bandwagon as if it's something new and unique to this year and overplaying the warmer subtropical waters as being a cause, rather than symptomatic of whatever's going on.

For whatever reason, certainly since 2018, we've seen increased tendency for these big sprawling disorganized waves exiting and taking awhile to develop (though this year it seems EVERY wave is this sort) and as they're larger, and have a greater north to south distance, they are going to be more susceptible to dry air intrusion (18-20N is not a typically favorable place in the eastern Atlantic even in the best of years)

A secondary problem is the intense high pressure which has persisted since late June that is shoving anything that does manage to make it further west into Central America or the Pacific. This high pressure may also be causing the warming--in effect the subtropical waters being so warm are not causing the inactivity over the last two months, but instead resulted from the same atmospheric mechanism that led to it.

Another possible factor I feel may in fact be a polar opposite of 2013--it was posted back in either May or June that the thermohaline circulation seemed particularly strong this year--in 2013, among other things, the collapse seemed to contribute to a near absence of the monsoon trough so on the flip side is it contributing to the trough being amplified this year.

[CyclonicFury]

The monsoon trough amplification is being drastically overlooked as a cause of July and August inactivity and I feel too many people are jumping on the wave breaking bandwagon as if it's something new and unique to this year and overplaying the warmer subtropical waters as being a cause, rather than symptomatic of whatever's going on.

For whatever reason, certainly since 2018, we've seen increased tendency for these big sprawling disorganized waves exiting and taking awhile to develop (though this year it seems EVERY wave is this sort) and as they're larger, and have a greater north to south distance, they are going to be more susceptible to dry air intrusion (18-20N is not a typically favorable place in the eastern Atlantic even in the best of years)

A secondary problem is the intense high pressure which has persisted since late June that is shoving anything that does manage to make it further west into Central America or the Pacific. This high pressure may also be causing the warming--in effect the subtropical waters being so warm are not causing the inactivity over the last two months, but instead resulted from the same atmospheric mechanism that led to it.

Another possible factor I feel may in fact be a polar opposite of 2013--it was posted back in either May or June that the thermohaline circulation seemed particularly strong this year--in 2013, among other things, the collapse seemed to contribute to a near absence of the monsoon trough so on the flip side is it contributing to the trough being amplified this year.

I feel like it is interesting how we have seen a MDR major hurricane in the second half of September each of the last three years, but we haven't seen a hurricane form in the MDR in August since 2017 (which was Irma on the last day of the month). Larry came close but missed by a couple days.

Mid-level dry air is usually much less of a problem in the second half of September, so we have a window to see some legit CV activity during that time. However, during the second half of September, the chance of U.S. threats from CV storms rapidly decreases.

[Hammy]

The monsoon trough amplification is being drastically overlooked as a cause of July and August inactivity and I feel too many people are jumping on the wave breaking bandwagon as if it's something new and unique to this year and overplaying the warmer subtropical waters as being a cause, rather than symptomatic of whatever's going on.

For whatever reason, certainly since 2018, we've seen increased tendency for these big sprawling disorganized waves exiting and taking awhile to develop (though this year it seems EVERY wave is this sort) and as they're larger, and have a greater north to south distance, they are going to be more susceptible to dry air intrusion (18-20N is not a typically favorable place in the eastern Atlantic even in the best of years)

A secondary problem is the intense high pressure which has persisted since late June that is shoving anything that does manage to make it further west into Central America or the Pacific. This high pressure may also be causing the warming--in effect the subtropical waters being so warm are not causing the inactivity over the last two months, but instead resulted from the same atmospheric mechanism that led to it.

Another possible factor I feel may in fact be a polar opposite of 2013--it was posted back in either May or June that the thermohaline circulation seemed particularly strong this year--in 2013, among other things, the collapse seemed to contribute to a near absence of the monsoon trough so on the flip side is it contributing to the trough being amplified this year.

I feel like it is interesting how we have seen a MDR major hurricane in the second half of September each of the last three years, but we haven't seen a hurricane form in the MDR in August since 2017 (which was Irma on the last day of the month). Larry came close but missed by a couple days.

Mid-level dry air is usually much less of a problem in the second half of September, so we have a window to see some legit CV activity during that time. However, during the second half of September, the chance of U.S. threats from CV storms rapidly decreases.

What's even more interesting is if you go with 00Z (Katia in 2011 on Sep 1) then we've only had two MDR hurricanes in August at all after 2010--Danny in 2015 was the other.

[tolakram]

You might notice how the 0Z euro drops everything except Danielle. If we consider wave breaking to be the stretching and de-amplification?? of waves then on the 0Z run you see the next wave off Africa gets torn apart with pretty much nothing left as far as vorticity goes. I suppose it gets slingshot up to europe on this latest run?? Not normal, not sure if it's a bad run or what.

[Deshaunrob17]

So far nothing in the deep tropics verifying this year lol.. From Bonnie to two Waves we’re watching now

[Category5Kaiju]

So far nothing in the deep tropics verifying this year lol.. From Bonnie to two Waves we’re watching now

Well, it is September and we still have 28 days left, so personally, I just don't think it will be impossible to get some deep tropics activity down the line.

[WiscoWx02]

So far nothing in the deep tropics verifying this year lol.. From Bonnie to two Waves we’re watching now

Would not at all be shocked if Danielle is the star of the show this month sad as it is. Now the one thing I can think of to change that is that Danielle may influence the jet in the northern latitudes and prevent wave breaking for a short while allowing a wave or two coming off of Africa to sneak by and develop but I’m not getting my expectations up on that one.

[Category5Kaiju]

So far nothing in the deep tropics verifying this year lol.. From Bonnie to two Waves we’re watching now

Would not at all be shocked if Danielle is the star of the show this month sad as it is. Now the one thing I can think of to change that is that Danielle may influence the jet in the northern latitudes and prevent wave breaking for a short while allowing a wave or two coming off of Africa to sneak by and develop but I’m not getting my expectations up on that one.

Also keep in mind that Typhoon Hinnamnor will insert itself into the high latitude pattern dynamics, so to be fair, I think there's somewhat good evidence to believe that things may actually change for a more favorable base state after Danielle and Hinnamnor leave the picture. In fact, I think with 91L now having some sustained convection and with some models like the CMC insisting on a long-track low-latitude system later this upcoming week, I don't think this month is done by any means. in fact, bold as it may be, I would say that I wouldn't be shocked to see something like a mid-September low latitude major hurricane at some point. Sort of like 2003 or 1988 I suppose. A lot of things can happen in the next 4 weeks; I mean, who could have imagined that Matthew in 2016 would have happened, or the 1929 Bahamas hurricane, after what seemed to be a pretty uneventful first half of September?

[WiscoWx02]

So far nothing in the deep tropics verifying this year lol.. From Bonnie to two Waves we’re watching now

Would not at all be shocked if Danielle is the star of the show this month sad as it is. Now the one thing I can think of to change that is that Danielle may influence the jet in the northern latitudes and prevent wave breaking for a short while allowing a wave or two coming off of Africa to sneak by and develop but I’m not getting my expectations up on that one.

Also keep in mind that Typhoon Hinnamnor will insert itself into the high latitude pattern dynamics, so to be fair, I think there's somewhat good evidence to believe that things may actually change for a more favorable base state after Danielle and Hinnamnor leave the picture. In fact, I think with 91L now having some sustained convection and with some models like the CMC insisting on a long-track low-latitude system later this upcoming week, I don't think this month is done by any means. in fact, bold as it may be, I would say that I wouldn't be shocked to see something like a mid-September low latitude major hurricane at some point. Sort of like 2003 or 1988 I suppose. A lot of things can happen in the next 4 weeks; I mean, who could have imagined that Matthew in 2016 would have happened, or the 1929 Bahamas hurricane, after what seemed to be a pretty uneventful first half of September?

I always thought that typhoon interference with the jet was a negative for the Atlantic? I remember in 2020 the influence of those typhoons led to a lot of TUTTs that sheared Paulette and Rene for a while, unless I am confusing that with something else.

[tolakram]

Would not at all be shocked if Danielle is the star of the show this month sad as it is. Now the one thing I can think of to change that is that Danielle may influence the jet in the northern latitudes and prevent wave breaking for a short while allowing a wave or two coming off of Africa to sneak by and develop but I’m not getting my expectations up on that one.

Also keep in mind that Typhoon Hinnamnor will insert itself into the high latitude pattern dynamics, so to be fair, I think there's somewhat good evidence to believe that things may actually change for a more favorable base state after Danielle and Hinnamnor leave the picture. In fact, I think with 91L now having some sustained convection and with some models like the CMC insisting on a long-track low-latitude system later this upcoming week, I don't think this month is done by any means. in fact, bold as it may be, I would say that I wouldn't be shocked to see something like a mid-September low latitude major hurricane at some point. Sort of like 2003 or 1988 I suppose. A lot of things can happen in the next 4 weeks; I mean, who could have imagined that Matthew in 2016 would have happened, or the 1929 Bahamas hurricane, after what seemed to be a pretty uneventful first half of September?

I always thought that typhoon interference with the jet was a negative for the Atlantic? I remember in 2020 the influence of those typhoons led to a lot of TUTTs that sheared Paulette and Rene for a while, unless I am confusing that with something else.

It's much more complex than that in my opinion. Tutts can both interfere and greatly enhance storm strength. People only remember the ones that interfere, and forget Dorian and Irma and their interaction with upper lows. Right now we are stuck in this weird pattern that is unfavorable for tropical development so any interference will change things, but not sure how.

[skyline385]

Also keep in mind that Typhoon Hinnamnor will insert itself into the high latitude pattern dynamics, so to be fair, I think there's somewhat good evidence to believe that things may actually change for a more favorable base state after Danielle and Hinnamnor leave the picture. In fact, I think with 91L now having some sustained convection and with some models like the CMC insisting on a long-track low-latitude system later this upcoming week, I don't think this month is done by any means. in fact, bold as it may be, I would say that I wouldn't be shocked to see something like a mid-September low latitude major hurricane at some point. Sort of like 2003 or 1988 I suppose. A lot of things can happen in the next 4 weeks; I mean, who could have imagined that Matthew in 2016 would have happened, or the 1929 Bahamas hurricane, after what seemed to be a pretty uneventful first half of September?

I always thought that typhoon interference with the jet was a negative for the Atlantic? I remember in 2020 the influence of those typhoons led to a lot of TUTTs that sheared Paulette and Rene for a while, unless I am confusing that with something else.

It's much more complex than that in my opinion. Tutts can both interfere and greatly enhance storm strength. People only remember the ones that interfere, and forget Dorian and Irma and their interaction with upper lows. Right now we are stuck in this weird pattern that is unfavorable for tropical development so any interference will change things, but not sure how.

TUTTs typically interfere by increasing shear when the system is located to the SE of it and help outflow when the system moves to the SW of it. Irma was aided by it once she was near Cuba landfalling into Florida as seen by the huge outflow on satellite but her development into a Cat 5 in the MDR should not have been aided by the TUTT afaik. As for Dorian, i haven’t read about it being influenced by TUTT, can you link me to a source?


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