ATL: EARL - Models

[tolakram]

Similar solution, sudden jog NE and develops.

[skyline385]

Still waiting on the ICON on Tropical Tidbits.

Same, seems to be taking forever


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[Kingarabian]

12Z CMC looks similar to the 00z. Will deepen and recurve earlier than the UKMET/Euro/ICON.

[NDG]

GFS needs to be ignored past its 48 hrs forecast, it continues to correct itself. Clearly too aggressive.

[BobHarlem]

Icon trend, further west (out to 150 hours)

[skyline385]

GFS needs to be ignored past its 48 hrs forecast, it continues to correct itself. Clearly too aggressive.

Agreed i have given up on the GFS for this season


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[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET continues to be the most west/south west compared to model guidance.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 22.5N 71.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2022 132 22.5N 71.7W 1011 21
0000UTC 08.09.2022 144 22.4N 72.7W 1009 21

[pgoss11]

12Z CMC looks similar to the 00z. Will deepen and recurve earlier than the UKMET/Euro/ICON.

While the CMC does recurve it is west of the 00z run @ 162 hrs

[Kingarabian]

12z ICON is a nice cliff hanger, still stuck at 150.

[Iceresistance]

12z ICON is a nice cliff hanger, still stuck at 150.

I'm at 168, it rapidly strengthens 91L when it recurves away from the CONUS and The Bahamas.

[LarryWx]

12z UKMET continues to be the most west/south west compared to model guidance.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 22.5N 71.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2022 132 22.5N 71.7W 1011 21
0000UTC 08.09.2022 144 22.4N 72.7W 1009 21

That's the old run (0Z).

[skyline385]

12z ICON is a nice cliff hanger, still stuck at 150.

It looks like a bug on TT. If you go to the home page then change models to ICON without changing the regions you can see upto 168 hrs. Small movement N as it starts intensifying.




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[sma10]

12z UKMET continues to be the most west/south west compared to model guidance.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 22.5N 71.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2022 132 22.5N 71.7W 1011 21
0000UTC 08.09.2022 144 22.4N 72.7W 1009 21

That's the old run (0Z).

Yes, the 12z does not regenerate, but there is still a trackable entity on the N coast of Cuba at 144hr

[SFLcane]

This is unlikely to bother anyone on the eastcoast rather then a brief stall then getting picked up by next trof.

[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET continues to be the most west/south west compared to model guidance.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 22.5N 71.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2022 132 22.5N 71.7W 1011 21
0000UTC 08.09.2022 144 22.4N 72.7W 1009 21

That's the old run (0Z).

Yup my bad.

21.7N 74.9W hour 144 on the 12z UKMET. Appears to be further SW.

[skyline385]

ICON 12Z may have a path of escape this run but looks like there are two lows fighting.




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[LarryWx]

12z UKMET continues to be the most west/south west compared to model guidance.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 22.5N 71.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2022 132 22.5N 71.7W 1011 21
0000UTC 08.09.2022 144 22.4N 72.7W 1009 21

That's the old run (0Z).

As I mentioned, that's the 0Z UKMET. The 12Z doesn't have it redevelop into a new TC like the 0Z. But the 12Z, similar to prior runs, does keep it as a weak surface low. Interestingly, the 12Z is back to being far to the south as opposed to being up into the Bahamas in a recurve position with it now moving due west from 65W to 75W to the N coast of Cuba at the end of the run similar to the 12Z Wed run but moving much more slowly since it is near the 144 hour position of that run from 48 hours ago.

Edit: I saw after posting this that I got ninjaed by sma and King.

[aspen]

12z HWRF correctly initialized 91L with a tilted vortex. Maybe this run will be closer to the Euro/UK/CMC

[Kingarabian]

Time to see if the Euro splits the differences between the UKMET and CMC.

[SFLcane]

12z HWRF correctly initialized 91L with a tilted vortex. Maybe this run will be closer to the Euro/UK/CMC

No chance its already turning NW before 65w and intensifying.