EPAC: KAY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2022090200, , BEST, 0, 129N, 946W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020, SPAWNINVEST, ep722022 to ep932022,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep932022.dat

1. South of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a
tropical wave and broad area of low pressure. Gradual development
of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend or early next week while it moves westward and
then west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

This should be a formidable hurricane that will threat Mexico. Let's see how it all pan out down the road.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF has shifted towards landfall on west coast of Baja California. With ridging so weak I don’t really see this happening. 0z GFS landfall is near the Sinaloa/Sonora border which feels a little more realistic. I’m fairly confident in a hurricane landfall here just not sure where.

[cycloneye]

1. South of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend
or early next week while it moves westward and then
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2022090212, , BEST, 0, 127N, 960W, 20, 1008, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep932022.dat

[cycloneye]

This is good.. Recon for this area on Monday.

POSSIBLE FIX OF SYSTEM OFF SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST NEAR 16.0N 105.0W FOR 05/1800Z.

[Kingarabian]

This is good.. Recon for this area on Monday.

POSSIBLE FIX OF SYSTEM OFF SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST NEAR 16.0N 105.0W FOR 05/1800Z.

Hopefully it's for something decent.

[cycloneye]

This is good.. Recon for this area on Monday.

POSSIBLE FIX OF SYSTEM OFF SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST NEAR 16.0N 105.0W FOR 05/1800Z.

Hopefully it's for something decent.

I think it will be very decent. Even I say an Odile 2014 type for the same area or a tad north from where it made landfall is possible.

[cycloneye]

Also Kingarabian , if they are planning to have recon, is for something strong. Is not many times they fly to EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/yellow_evan/status/1565743599098429440




Shameless plug but since I posted models runs thermoelectric s d don’t feel like re-posting.

[Astromanía]

So models are between a track like Odile 2014 or Lane 2006

[cycloneye]

So models are between a track like Odile 2014 or Lane 2006

Is early to say where it will go but all who live in the Mexican coast and up to Sinaloa, Sonora and Baja should pay atention.

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend
or early next week while it moves westward and then
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Also Kingarabian , if they are planning to have recon, is for something strong. Is not many times they fly to EPAC.

True. Good chance this becomes a major, but wouldn't be surprised to see Cat.2 peak.

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2022090218, , BEST, 0, 130N, 965W, 20, 1008, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep932022.dat

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932022 09/02/22 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 35 45 59 72 86 94 108 113 120 112 104 96 93
V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 30 35 45 59 72 86 52 56 62 60 52 44 36 33
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 28 32 39 47 36 42 59 61 62 56 48 42
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 16 15 11 11 4 3 1 9 6 9 8 4 10 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 -3 0 4 -4 -5 -3 -4 7 1 3
SHEAR DIR 14 26 34 34 36 24 23 71 61 16 300 300 303 319 178 178 282
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.8 28.8 30.6 29.1 25.5 25.4 26.3 27.0 30.0
POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 156 157 157 160 160 161 165 156 174 159 120 116 126 136 168
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -50.4 -50.0 -49.6 -49.2 -49.4 -50.0 -50.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.6 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 8 10 6 4 2 2 3 6
700-500 MB RH 76 79 81 83 85 89 88 85 81 84 78 71 66 62 63 67 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 12 15 20 21 25 27 35 38 46 43 40 32 25
850 MB ENV VOR 41 57 61 56 56 69 84 91 112 114 132 104 124 113 123 75 38
200 MB DIV 56 97 111 103 142 108 149 109 110 62 60 88 85 28 18 6 -23
700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -5 -4 1 4 0 -2 -4 -7
LAND (KM) 302 310 317 334 339 303 226 134 26 -98 105 22 193 401 367 84 63
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.9 13.3 14.2 15.5 17.5 19.9 22.4 24.4 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.5 97.0 97.4 97.7 98.0 98.4 99.0 99.9 101.7 104.1 107.0 110.4 114.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 2 4 6 10 15 18 18 19 14 8 9 15 18
HEAT CONTENT 15 15 17 18 20 25 23 20 23 14 27 12 0 0 0 2 23

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 12. 21. 28. 33. 37. 41. 43. 44. 45. 47. 50.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 16. 23. 27. 37. 39. 45. 38. 31. 21. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 25. 39. 52. 66. 74. 88. 93. 100. 92. 84. 76. 73.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 96.5

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932022 INVEST 09/02/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.70 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.38 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.4% 22.6% 9.3% 5.4% 1.3% 30.9% 76.9% 63.2%
Bayesian: 0.2% 2.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 9.1%
Consensus: 0.8% 8.4% 3.6% 1.9% 0.5% 10.4% 25.9% 24.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 10.0% 6.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932022 INVEST 09/02/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

1. South of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern coast
of Mexico is slowly beginning to show signs of organization.
Continued gradual development of this system is expected, and a
tropical depression will likely form this weekend while the system
moves generally west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development,
heavy rain is possible along the coasts of southern and southwestern
Mexico through early next week, and interests in those locations
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2022090300, , BEST, 0, 125N, 963W, 25, 1007, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep932022.dat

[cycloneye]

* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932022 09/03/22 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 52 66 78 90 95 109 111 112 104 88 79 77
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 52 66 78 48 34 44 40 43 35 19 15 23
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 38 47 57 40 31 39 43 50 48 38 32 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 13 16 14 11 6 3 1 1 9 13 12 8 4 9 9 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 1 0 0 -4 2 2 0 -3 -3 0 4 5 1 3
SHEAR DIR 10 24 28 29 21 2 43 172 199 231 230 255 288 273 230 242 267
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.0 28.7 30.5 28.6 25.1 25.9 26.8 28.2 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 154 156 162 164 166 157 154 173 153 113 120 134 149 138
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -51.8 -51.9 -50.7 -51.1 -50.0 -50.2 -49.2 -49.4 -49.2 -50.2 -50.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 6 5 4 7 5 9 8 11 5 4 3 5 5 9
700-500 MB RH 78 81 83 84 87 88 86 83 83 80 74 66 60 58 57 61 66
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 14 20 24 26 27 35 37 40 37 23 10 4
850 MB ENV VOR 48 49 49 50 58 64 86 101 122 115 133 103 121 107 98 52 30
200 MB DIV 91 100 104 135 112 96 111 129 81 38 78 80 81 13 -12 -27 6
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -6 -7 -1 2 5 -3 -4 -4 3
LAND (KM) 356 358 352 345 327 250 136 16 -100 -58 68 -30 171 243 29 -30 -411
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.7 15.0 16.8 18.9 21.4 23.6 25.2 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.3 96.6 96.9 97.1 97.3 97.9 98.8 100.2 102.2 104.7 107.7 111.3 114.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 2 3 7 9 13 15 17 18 17 9 5 15 18 17
HEAT CONTENT 12 12 13 14 16 22 22 25 16 14 25 9 0 0 1 9 2

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 37. 39. 40. 41. 43. 45.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 11. 19. 24. 26. 37. 37. 36. 30. 14. 1. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 27. 41. 53. 65. 70. 84. 86. 87. 79. 63. 54. 52.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 96.3

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932022 INVEST 09/03/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 6.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 5.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.36 2.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.5% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 28.8% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.4% 48.2% 24.8% 19.1% 5.9% 56.7% 77.1% 64.2%
Bayesian: 0.3% 8.7% 4.3% 1.2% 0.1% 4.4% 11.1% 20.8%
Consensus: 1.9% 26.8% 15.9% 6.8% 2.0% 26.6% 39.0% 28.3%
DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 12.0% 61.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932022 INVEST 09/03/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]