2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

Ignoring 91L on the EPS (whose development is a big question right now), this looks extremely dire for peak season.




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[Hammy]

Ignoring 91L on the EPS (whose development is a big question right now), this looks extremely dire for peak season.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220902/e62d35a5e96921223cdb49370168dc84.jpg


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The total absence of waves at 10-13N (with everything being above that) is kind of amazing

[skyline385]

Ignoring 91L on the EPS (whose development is a big question right now), this looks extremely dire for peak season.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220902/e62d35a5e96921223cdb49370168dc84.jpg


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The total absence of waves at 10-13N (with everything being above that) is kind of amazing

Yea MDR? More like the Non Development Region


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[Ntxw]

Ignoring 91L on the EPS (whose development is a big question right now), this looks extremely dire for peak season.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220902/e62d35a5e96921223cdb49370168dc84.jpg

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In general nothing has changed that much on the models. It is peak and we're seeing some activity, but so far it hasn't gone gangbusters.

[AJC3]

Gang, over the last month, this thread has increasingly become a haven for seasonal sub-threads that belong in the thread created specifically for such talk.

Let's keep those types of posts in that thread, not here. The admins are growing tired of having to repeatedly move these OT posts over to that thread. From here on out, we will be zapping them whenever we have to clean up this thread.

If you see that one or more of your posts has disappeared, you can safely assume it has been deemed OT for this particular thread.

[Teban54]

FWIW, 0z GFS now develops the 9/3 wave as a brief TS in the west to central MDR, which dissipates and then regenerates later as it recurves. 0z CMC is somewhat similar but less organized.

0z CMC no longer makes the 9/6 wave a hurricane, and has it recurve much earlier at 40°W (seriously?). All other models have already dropped development of the 9/6 wave at 12z.

[NDG]

Don't expect anything tropical in the GOM & Caribbean for the peak of the season with this kind of UL set up. This is La Nina for the record books.

[Teban54]

Hey, the GFS develops something at 384 hours!

[tolakram]

It's going to take until mid month to see if HINNAMNOR shakes up the Atlantic background state.

[aspen]

The models are slightly less quiet today. All show a wave that’ll exit Africa in the next 24-36 hours attempt to develop in the northern MDR. While it’ll come off at a high latitude, it’ll do W or WNW for several days, unlike 94L which was immediately sent NW.

Further out, the CMC has a really strong wave exit Africa and a low in the BoC at the end of its 12z run, and the GFS has a tiny MDR TC in the super long range.

[ouragans]

The models are slightly less quiet today. All show a wave that’ll exit Africa in the next 24-36 hours attempt to develop in the northern MDR. While it’ll come off at a high latitude, it’ll do W or WNW for several days, unlike 94L which was immediately sent NW.

Further out, the CMC has a really strong wave exit Africa and a low in the BoC at the end of its 12z run, and the GFS has a tiny MDR TC in the super long range.

Surprisingly no mention in 8PM TWO

[aspen]

The models are slightly less quiet today. All show a wave that’ll exit Africa in the next 24-36 hours attempt to develop in the northern MDR. While it’ll come off at a high latitude, it’ll do W or WNW for several days, unlike 94L which was immediately sent NW.

Further out, the CMC has a really strong wave exit Africa and a low in the BoC at the end of its 12z run, and the GFS has a tiny MDR TC in the super long range.

Surprisingly no mention in 8PM TWO

Probably waiting to see if model support increases, because so many disturbances with much better model outputs have never materialized. Also it’ll be going through quite a hostile part of the basin. The NHC probably doesn’t have much faith in it.

[ouragans]

Yellow area in the Atlantic since 2 AM

[Category5Kaiju]

CMC seems pretty adamant about developing a robust MDR system later this week into next. Quite impressive for a relatively conservative model.

[kevin]

12z ICON has another 2 systems within the next week (180 hours). It's also quite bullish regarding Danielle with a 964 mb peak. Earl gets into the 950s.

[LarryWx]

This is a new one on the 12Z UKMET fwiw, which is at a very low latitude moving WNW in the E MDR:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 9.8N 26.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2022 120 9.8N 26.4W 1009 26
0000UTC 10.09.2022 132 10.6N 30.4W 1009 29
1200UTC 10.09.2022 144 11.4N 34.2W 1008 33

[Kingarabian]

50/50 odds on another EPAC system or BOC system in 10 days.

[aspen]

Euro and CMC are starting to latch onto a wave that’ll exit Africa around 9/11-9/13. The exact date differs between models and runs. The 12z Euro has its classic MDR/Africa bias and shows the wave developing over land.

Around the same time, the GFS and CMC show a disturbance over Central America that either goes into the EPac (GFS) or Gulf of Mexico (CMC).

[Iceresistance]

Euro and CMC are starting to latch onto a wave that’ll exit Africa around 9/11-9/13. The exact date differs between models and runs. The 12z Euro has its classic MDR/Africa bias and shows the wave developing over land.

Around the same time, the GFS and CMC show a disturbance over Central America that either goes into the EPac (GFS) or Gulf of Mexico (CMC).

12z EPS is going crazy with the 9/13 wave.

[Category5Kaiju]

Euro and CMC are starting to latch onto a wave that’ll exit Africa around 9/11-9/13. The exact date differs between models and runs. The 12z Euro has its classic MDR/Africa bias and shows the wave developing over land.

Around the same time, the GFS and CMC show a disturbance over Central America that either goes into the EPac (GFS) or Gulf of Mexico (CMC).

12z EPS is going crazy with the 9/13 wave.

I gotta say, I won't be surprised if this year we find ourselves tracking a long-tracking, strong system born in the MDR. Mid-September is a very plausible time that you get to see those kinds of systems, and with the switch flip looking to have finally arrived, I think we'll certainly be seeing more activity this month. I'm keeping an eye out on this system.