2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1565696703067480072





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[NDG]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1565029401225486337/photo/1

I know I have brought this up several times but...

Doesn't explain why 2005/2011 were above normal with the same pattern

At least compared to 2005 there is no comparison in the pattern. During 2022 ULLs from AWBs traveled further west across the Atlantic bringing down dry air from the higher latitudes.

[tolakram]

I always thought that typhoon interference with the jet was a negative for the Atlantic? I remember in 2020 the influence of those typhoons led to a lot of TUTTs that sheared Paulette and Rene for a while, unless I am confusing that with something else.

It's much more complex than that in my opinion. Tutts can both interfere and greatly enhance storm strength. People only remember the ones that interfere, and forget Dorian and Irma and their interaction with upper lows. Right now we are stuck in this weird pattern that is unfavorable for tropical development so any interference will change things, but not sure how.

TUTTs typically interfere by increasing shear when the system is located to the SE of it and help outflow when the system moves to the SW of it. Irma was aided by it once she was near Cuba landfalling into Florida as seen by the huge outflow on satellite but her development into a Cat 5 in the MDR should not have been aided by the TUTT afaik. As for Dorian, i haven’t read about it being influenced by TUTT, can you link me to a source?


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Look at the old Dorian thread in talking tropics/archives. There's some tweets referencing it and some discussion. Basically 3 ULL's around Dorian. There's also the official report: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052019_Dorian.pdf

[tolakram]

This seems to be a pretty darn good explanation for the slow season so far.

https://www.wfla.com/weather/climate-classroom/the-reason-behind-the-slow-hurricane-season-and-whats-next/

snippet

In an active hurricane season, the textbook pattern would be for a sprawling high-pressure system – sometimes called the Bermuda high – to be centered across the subtropical Atlantic. That type of system, pictured below, helps guide tropical waves and storms westward toward the US. It also blocks the jet stream – and associated wind shear and dry air – in the North Atlantic from invading the tropics.

But this textbook pattern has not been in place this summer – far from it. Instead, the tendency has been for the high to be much smaller and further north. This has helped fuel the ocean heat wave. And the position of the high has enabled something called wave breaking. This is essentially when the jet stream becomes elongated north to south and unstable, with pieces breaking off at times.

Would love to hear other pro met's opinions on this.

[WiscoWx02]

Also keep in mind that Typhoon Hinnamnor will insert itself into the high latitude pattern dynamics, so to be fair, I think there's somewhat good evidence to believe that things may actually change for a more favorable base state after Danielle and Hinnamnor leave the picture. In fact, I think with 91L now having some sustained convection and with some models like the CMC insisting on a long-track low-latitude system later this upcoming week, I don't think this month is done by any means. in fact, bold as it may be, I would say that I wouldn't be shocked to see something like a mid-September low latitude major hurricane at some point. Sort of like 2003 or 1988 I suppose. A lot of things can happen in the next 4 weeks; I mean, who could have imagined that Matthew in 2016 would have happened, or the 1929 Bahamas hurricane, after what seemed to be a pretty uneventful first half of September?

I always thought that typhoon interference with the jet was a negative for the Atlantic? I remember in 2020 the influence of those typhoons led to a lot of TUTTs that sheared Paulette and Rene for a while, unless I am confusing that with something else.

It's much more complex than that in my opinion. Tutts can both interfere and greatly enhance storm strength. People only remember the ones that interfere, and forget Dorian and Irma and their interaction with upper lows. Right now we are stuck in this weird pattern that is unfavorable for tropical development so any interference will change things, but not sure how.

Thank you for clarification! I see your point for sure, I seem to remember a lot of talk about a TUTT and Irma. Harvey too in the Gulf as well. I know there were plenty other storms.

[WiscoWx02]

It's much more complex than that in my opinion. Tutts can both interfere and greatly enhance storm strength. People only remember the ones that interfere, and forget Dorian and Irma and their interaction with upper lows. Right now we are stuck in this weird pattern that is unfavorable for tropical development so any interference will change things, but not sure how.

TUTTs typically interfere by increasing shear when the system is located to the SE of it and help outflow when the system moves to the SW of it. Irma was aided by it once she was near Cuba landfalling into Florida as seen by the huge outflow on satellite but her development into a Cat 5 in the MDR should not have been aided by the TUTT afaik. As for Dorian, i haven’t read about it being influenced by TUTT, can you link me to a source?


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Look at the old Dorian thread in talking tropics/archives. There's some tweets referencing it and some discussion. Basically 3 ULL's around Dorian. There's also the official report: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052019_Dorian.pdf

Also you can tell there are TUTT's around Dorian just looking at satellite imagery at the time. I'm not sure how to take pictures off of google and post them here but in the satellite image I have in mind you can clearly see the outflow being tugged westward near a upper level low near Cuba...the stretched outflow made Dorian look almost like Hugo for a while...that I remember clearly.

[zzh]

I was looking back at the 2013 indicators thread for fun, and on September 2, S2K user Hammy made this rather interesting but important comment then:

"There is literally nothing over Africa as far as waves go, its almost completely convection-free east of 98L all the way across the ITCZ to Ethiopia."

As far as I can tell, Africa as of now looks pretty convectively active. Just shows you another reason (along with Danielle's somewhat likely shot at a decent hurricane strength system, like Cat 2 at least if all goes well) why 2013 is a poor analog year for this year (and will highly likely be so for future seasons)

https://zoom.earth/maps/daily/#view=20.4,8.6,4z/date=2013-09-02,pm
Convection-free?

[Teban54]

With Danielle being basically stationary for days while intensifying (at least as per current forecast), will it cool the subtropics a bit and provide better atmospheric conditions for the deep tropics later in the season? Or will the impacts be too localized to matter?

[galaxy401]

Maybe all the hurricanes this season will be in the subtropics like Danielle. A little out there but those waters are very warm.

[Hammy]

With Danielle being basically stationary for days while intensifying (at least as per current forecast), will it cool the subtropics a bit and provide better atmospheric conditions for the deep tropics later in the season? Or will the impacts be too localized to matter?

Warm subtropics aren't causing the inactivity--they're resulting from the same background state that's shutting down much of the central and western basin, which is the high pressure being too strong. So I doubt any cooling would make a difference.

[aspen]

With Danielle being basically stationary for days while intensifying (at least as per current forecast), will it cool the subtropics a bit and provide better atmospheric conditions for the deep tropics later in the season? Or will the impacts be too localized to matter?

Warm subtropics aren't causing the inactivity--they're resulting from the same background state that's shutting down much of the central and western basin, which is the high pressure being too strong. So I doubt any cooling would make a difference.

So it would seem what happened in late 2021 — the high pressure suddenly becoming too strong and shutting down deep tropic activity — has continued to plague 2022. What even caused that? It just came up out of the blue, right after a >50 ACE Cat 4/5.

[Hammy]

I was looking back at the 2013 indicators thread for fun, and on September 2, S2K user Hammy made this rather interesting but important comment then:

"There is literally nothing over Africa as far as waves go, its almost completely convection-free east of 98L all the way across the ITCZ to Ethiopia."

As far as I can tell, Africa as of now looks pretty convectively active. Just shows you another reason (along with Danielle's somewhat likely shot at a decent hurricane strength system, like Cat 2 at least if all goes well) why 2013 is a poor analog year for this year (and will highly likely be so for future seasons)

https://i.imgur.com/WqkUBzB.jpg
https://zoom.earth/maps/daily/#view=20.4,8.6,4z/date=2013-09-02,pm
Convection-free?

My post that was posted during summer 2013 was being quoted here, to show the contrast with this year. It wasn't said about this year

[NDG]

With Danielle being basically stationary for days while intensifying (at least as per current forecast), will it cool the subtropics a bit and provide better atmospheric conditions for the deep tropics later in the season? Or will the impacts be too localized to matter?

Warm subtropics aren't causing the inactivity--they're resulting from the same background state that's shutting down much of the central and western basin, which is the high pressure being too strong. So I doubt any cooling would make a difference.

Subtropics only go up to the 35th latitude, that's the mid latitudes that you are referring to.

[NDG]

Great tweet.

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1565782530988675075

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1565798699229335552

[Category5Kaiju]

I gotta say, I am legitimately curious to see what happens in the next several months. I will literally laugh (not out of malice, but more out of pure curiosity) if all of a sudden there's a Category 5 hurricane about to strike Florida on September 25 lol

It's September, I keep needing to remind myself haha. It's September, which is a month that should almost never be trusted.

[skyline385]

I gotta say, I am legitimately curious to see what happens in the next several months. I will literally laugh (not out of malice, but more out of pure curiosity) if all of a sudden there's a Category 5 hurricane about to strike Florida on September 25 lol

It's September, I keep needing to remind myself haha. It's September, which is a month that should almost never be trusted.

Well 1992 had an ACE of just 78 so obviously you never know.


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[NotSparta]

With Danielle being basically stationary for days while intensifying (at least as per current forecast), will it cool the subtropics a bit and provide better atmospheric conditions for the deep tropics later in the season? Or will the impacts be too localized to matter?

Warm subtropics aren't causing the inactivity--they're resulting from the same background state that's shutting down much of the central and western basin, which is the high pressure being too strong. So I doubt any cooling would make a difference.

So it would seem what happened in late 2021 — the high pressure suddenly becoming too strong and shutting down deep tropic activity — has continued to plague 2022. What even caused that? It just came up out of the blue, right after a >50 ACE Cat 4/5.

Two totally different things going on

[Hammy]

Warm subtropics aren't causing the inactivity--they're resulting from the same background state that's shutting down much of the central and western basin, which is the high pressure being too strong. So I doubt any cooling would make a difference.

So it would seem what happened in late 2021 — the high pressure suddenly becoming too strong and shutting down deep tropic activity — has continued to plague 2022. What even caused that? It just came up out of the blue, right after a >50 ACE Cat 4/5.

Two totally different things going on

From Late September onward along with much of July and August of this year had viable low-level waves being too far south to develop, that ended up in the East Pacific instead--the latest being the GFS phantom storm's incipient disturbance. The high in both instances was certainly stronger and displaced much further south and west, inhibiting these disturbances from making any northward progress.

This same high is very likely why the north Atlantic has warmed so significantly and also contributed to the limited subtropical activity (one storm so far in the central Atlantic, and only one after October last year the entire rest of the season.) Absent any alternate explanation there seems to be little difference.

[aspen]

So it would seem what happened in late 2021 — the high pressure suddenly becoming too strong and shutting down deep tropic activity — has continued to plague 2022. What even caused that? It just came up out of the blue, right after a >50 ACE Cat 4/5.

Two totally different things going on

From Late September onward along with much of July and August of this year had viable low-level waves being too far south to develop, that ended up in the East Pacific instead--the latest being the GFS phantom storm's incipient disturbance. The high in both instances was certainly stronger and displaced much further south and west, inhibiting these disturbances from making any northward progress.

This same high is very likely why the north Atlantic has warmed so significantly and also contributed to the limited subtropical activity (one storm so far in the central Atlantic, and only one after October last year the entire rest of the season.) Absent any alternate explanation there seems to be little difference.

Could the strong, displaced high explain why it’s been so hot and dry in CT/RI/MA for the last two months, as well as the record heatwaves in Europe? Pretty much the entire state of Connecticut is under some level of drought, and it’s been weeks (or over a month, I honestly forget) since the last rain event that was longer than 30-60 minutes.