ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Still no genesis? Huh. Guess we wait and see around 11 EDT.

Unless there is a special TWO because there is another Recon investigating the system right now, also confirmed an LLC with it.

[ouragans]

AL, 91, 2022090300, , BEST, 0, 183N, 598W, 35, 1005, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912022.dat

Really close to Earl/PTC 6 right now

There's no threat to land, it won't be a PTC. I think straight to TS at 11PM

[skyline385]

TS Earl

AL, 91, 2022090300, , BEST, 0, 183N, 598W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 150, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 120, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,

[aspen]

TS Earl

AL, 91, 2022090300, , BEST, 0, 183N, 598W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 150, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 120, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,

Can’t wait to see what the NHC goes with for their first cone. There’s so much uncertainty with Earl, even in just the next few days. I’m thinking they’ll only show a 45-50 kt TS peak, but I have no idea what they’ll do for the track.

[Hammy]

TS Earl

AL, 91, 2022090300, , BEST, 0, 183N, 598W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 150, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 120, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,

9pm, right on cue

[SFLcane]

TS Earl

AL, 91, 2022090300, , BEST, 0, 183N, 598W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 150, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 120, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,

Can’t wait to see what the NHC goes with for their first cone. There’s so much uncertainty with Earl, even in just the next few days. I’m thinking they’ll only show a 45-50 kt TS peak, but I have no idea what they’ll do for the track.

Track will be exactly what you see on the models movement towards the wnw followed by nw recurving out to sea maybe something for Bermuda to watch.

[cycloneye]

Until is oficial, we dont change the title of this or any invest threads as anything can happen and we are at the safe side waiting for the oficial word.

[skyline385]

With the weakening trend on a lot of the Global models and the weak 18Z HWRF and HMON runs, I am guessing NHC will probably only keep it as a weak TS with some intensification for now.

[Hammy]

Until is oficial, we dont change the title of this or any invest threads as anything can happen and we are at the safe side waiting for the oficial word.

I remember the whole mess with Ana's initial phase in 2009 where they had it named on NRL and then retracted it before advisory time (only to upgrade it post-season anyway)

[Subtrop]

AL062022 - Tropical Storm EARL

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... r=al062022

[cycloneye]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl, located east of the Leeward Islands, at 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC).

[Subtrop]

AL062022 - Tropical Storm EARL

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... r=al062022

Special Message from NHC Issued 3 Sep 2022 02:06 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl, located east of the Leeward Islands, at 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC).

[tolakram]

Why not add to the excitement, this may be the peak!

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1565883973342900225

[cycloneye]

Until is oficial, we dont change the title of this or any invest threads as anything can happen and we are at the safe side waiting for the oficial word.

Is oficial!!

[Sciencerocks]

[floridasun]

now we know what track nhc think will take next 5 days all guess will be put alway

[msbee]

It’s eeerily calm here on St Maarten.
Waiting for the big blow. Looks like we will get a lot of rain and gusty winds.

[cycloneye]

It’s eeerily calm here on St Maarten.
Waiting for the big blow. Looks like we will get a lot of rain and gusty winds.

Hi Barbara. Stay safe.

[Teban54]

At least this will stop the "maybe it won't develop, season cancel" talk.

[skyline385]

Important part right here, looks like its going to be mostly rains

Tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to remain on the northern
and eastern side of the circulation, and as a result, are not
expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, or Puerto Rico.