ATL: DANIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Hurricane - Discussion
So how long is Danielle going to have to sit in the same spot for upwelling to become an issue? I'm assuming the decrease in convection as of the last few hours is probably due to dry air entrainment but a question I have nonetheless.
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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Hurricane - Discussion
AL, 05, 2022090218, , BEST, 0, 379N, 435W, 65, 992, HU
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal052022.dat
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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Hurricane - Discussion
WiscoWx02 wrote:So how long is Danielle going to have to sit in the same spot for upwelling to become an issue? I'm assuming the decrease in convection as of the last few hours is probably due to dry air entrainment but a question I have nonetheless.
Models have this sitting and intensifying place, but I hadn't even considered the upwelling problem which makes me wonder if the models are even factoring that in, given all show steady-to-quick intensification.
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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Hurricane - Discussion
Hammy wrote:WiscoWx02 wrote:So how long is Danielle going to have to sit in the same spot for upwelling to become an issue? I'm assuming the decrease in convection as of the last few hours is probably due to dry air entrainment but a question I have nonetheless.
Models have this sitting and intensifying place, but I hadn't even considered the upwelling problem which makes me wonder if the models are even factoring that in, given all show steady-to-quick intensification.
It would be strange if they haven’t, especially the hurricane models, because the HWRF has constantly been factoring in upwelling with its stall-and-recurve scenarios for 91L.
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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Hurricane - Discussion
NHC dropped the intensity forecast quite a bit. No longer forecasting a Category 2.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Hurricane - Discussion
galaxy401 wrote:NHC dropped the intensity forecast quite a bit. No longer forecasting a Category 2.
What a shocker in 2022.

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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Hurricane - Discussion
galaxy401 wrote:NHC dropped the intensity forecast quite a bit. No longer forecasting a Category 2.
Intensity will probably depend on how much it moves in the next few days. If it inches away from where it’s been stalling, it could take off again over untapped waters.
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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Hurricane - Discussion
Still at 65kt.
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal052022.dat
AL, 05, 2022090300, , BEST, 0, 379N, 434W, 65, 988, HU
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal052022.dat
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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Hurricane - Discussion
IMO, this likely reached an initial peak stronger than 65 kt and has weakened a bit due to upwelling.
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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Has underperformed bigtime as the forecast was to reach cat 2 but the upwelling has taken a toll.
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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like it’s trying to form a giant eye, like the HWRF has suggested in a couple of runs.
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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AL, 05, 2022090312, , BEST, 0, 381N, 439W, 60, 990, TS
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal052022.dat
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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Seems to still be mixing out some dry air and getting its core back in shape, but overall Danielle has improved since its somewhat anemic appearance last night. It should be on its way to becoming a hurricane later today, and probably still has a shot at becoming a Cat 2.


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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:Seems to still be mixing out some dry air and getting its core back in shape, but overall Danielle has improved since its somewhat anemic appearance last night. It should be on its way to becoming a hurricane later today, and probably still has a shot at becoming a Cat 2.
https://i.imgur.com/fGnwNRX.jpg
The problem is that these above normal water temps are shallow, so upwelling is a much bigger deal IMO. Tough intensity forecast. If it moves enough it can get stronger, too slow and much weaker. There is almost no ocean heat content, the above normal water temps are due to lack of winds in the area.
A good source: http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/
Use archive to see an OHC chart that is filled out.

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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
tolakram wrote:aspen wrote:Seems to still be mixing out some dry air and getting its core back in shape, but overall Danielle has improved since its somewhat anemic appearance last night. It should be on its way to becoming a hurricane later today, and probably still has a shot at becoming a Cat 2.
https://i.imgur.com/fGnwNRX.jpg
The problem is that these above normal water temps are shallow, so upwelling is a much bigger deal IMO. Tough intensity forecast. If it moves enough it can get stronger, too slow and much weaker. There is almost no ocean heat content, the above normal water temps are due to lack of winds in the area.
A good source: http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/
Use archive to see an OHC chart that is filled out.
https://i.imgur.com/o3mxHvh.png
Seems like the data cuts off at 40N so hard to say how much OHC is there once it gets north
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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I’d call danielle a hurricane again at this point. Much rounder and starting to get that deep convection back around the core. If these developments continue it should be pretty clear cut by 5pm
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Re: ATL: DANIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AL, 05, 2022090318, , BEST, 0, 380N, 447W, 60, 990, TS
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal052022.dat
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