ATL: EARL - Models

[DestinHurricane]

00Z GFS looking rather odd lol. Things gonna split in 2?

i dont see that

It was only a frame or 2

[Kingarabian]

UKMET shifts east big time. In line with the GFS.

[Hammy]

UKMET shifts east big time. In line with the GFS.

What's the intensity? I'm not sure where to access their output

[Kingarabian]

UKMET shifts east big time. In line with the GFS.

What's the intensity? I'm not sure where to access their output

Through hour 144 it's a weak TS.

[Nimbus]

UKMET shifts east big time. In line with the GFS.

What's the intensity? I'm not sure where to access their output

Through hour 144 it's a weak TS.

Short waves exiting the east coast of CONUS dig to pick up tropical storms and weak hurricanes, a likely scenario.
Major hurricanes sometimes pump up the ridge they are being steered by so the short waves roll over with a stronger anticyclonic circulation pushing the Jetstream north.

So UKmet shifted track further East with the TS signature.

[aspen]

Today’s model suite has gotten a little more aggressive — the most recent GFS, Euro, CMC, ICON, HWRF, and HMON runs all turn Earl into a recurving hurricane. Seems like they’re agreeing a little more on the track, between the Bahamas recurve from prior Euro/CMC runs, and the immediate 60W recurve from the GFS.

[jhpigott]

There are a not insignificant number of 00z EPS members that look to stall out Earl just east of the Bahamas which eventually get shunted west into the SE coast

[tolakram]

The GFS continues to do better with sheared storms. It's maybe the only thing left that it can do better at.

6Z Euro now very similar to previous GFS runs.

[NDG]

Apologies to the GFS by me

[tolakram]

HWRF-P 06Z

[CourierPR]

Some one needs to get the word to Earl to stop moving west.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Seeing as how Earl is plugging away west at 19N and 63W I'd say the models that recurve it at 60W are now officially wrong. It isn't showing any sign of slowing down or changing direction as far as I can see. According to most of these models, the recurve is imminent. We shall see very soon if that plays out. Looking at the water vapor loop, it looks like Danielle might be gumming up the flow somewhat. Don't know how that factors into things though.

[tolakram]

Seeing as how Earl is plugging away west at 19N and 63W I'd say the models that recurve it at 60W are now officially wrong. It isn't showing any sign of slowing down or changing direction as far as I can see. According to most of these models, the recurve is imminent. We shall see very soon if that plays out. Looking at the water vapor loop, it looks like Danielle might be gumming up the flow somewhat. Don't know how that factors into things though.

What model recurves it at 60W? I believe all of them recurve in the vicinity of 70W. HWRF is closer to 65.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Today’s model suite has gotten a little more aggressive — the most recent GFS, Euro, CMC, ICON, HWRF, and HMON runs all turn Earl into a recurving hurricane. Seems like they’re agreeing a little more on the track, between the Bahamas recurve from prior Euro/CMC runs, and the immediate 60W recurve from the GFS.

I was answering to this post. I probably should have quoted it. Also the HWRF posted above takes it out right at 65

[tolakram]

12Z GFS

[tolakram]

GFS trend

[Kingarabian]

CMC continues to make this a hurricane. Hopefully it ends up being something decent. Current visible showing an exposed swirl and still, some tough conditions ahead of it isn't that promising.

[msbee]

Absolutely a non event here in St Maarten

[Emmett_Brown]

Earl is tracking on the southern side of most of the models at the moment due to his sheared center slipping west a little faster. Probably nothing, but if this goes on for another 1-2 days, we might see some models creep west a little. Or maybe not, who knows.

Edit: Based on recon and satellite, Earl appears to be strengthening now, so this may be the start of the deepening/recurvature unanimously seen by the models. Westward track shifts are probably not going to happen.

[Nimbus]

Seeing as how Earl is plugging away west at 19N and 63W I'd say the models that recurve it at 60W are now officially wrong. It isn't showing any sign of slowing down or changing direction as far as I can see. According to most of these models, the recurve is imminent. We shall see very soon if that plays out. Looking at the water vapor loop, it looks like Danielle might be gumming up the flow somewhat. Don't know how that factors into things though.

What model recurves it at 60W? I believe all of them recurve in the vicinity of 70W. HWRF is closer to 65.

The "next" weakness I could see digging south below 30 N can be seen in the cirrus clouds blowing east over Bermuda in the WV imagery. Waiting to see the NW turn verify, once its above 20N it won't miss any weakness.