ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Absolutely a non event here on St Maarten

You might get a bit of rain on the back side with that one feeder band tomorrow. No wind impact south of the track, though.

Earl's center appears to be exposed west of the convection again.

[Hammy]

Welp, seems somewhat likely that the speculations that this system would just dissipate (was it the Euro that thought that would happen?) are going to have a good chance of busting

Euro and UKMET both showed little to no development, both busted

[crownweather]

Joe B is thinking of Hurricane Earl on Monday.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1566123349083922435?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

You mean he no longer is expecting a Carol Part 2 like he was yesterday?

[msbee]

Absolutely a non event here on St Maarten

You might get a bit of rain on the back side with that one feeder band tomorrow. No wind impact south of the track, though.

Earl's center appears to be exposed west of the convection again.

Yes, we are expecting that. MeteoFrance has us on orange alert for possible heavy thunderstorms.

[Iceresistance]

Joe B is thinking of Hurricane Earl on Monday.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1566123349083922435?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

You mean he no longer is expecting a Carol Part 2 like he was yesterday?

Different years, different setups.

Earl appears to be a safe recurve away from land for now unless it refuses to take the turn to the NE

[cycloneye]

AL, 06, 2022090400, , BEST, 0, 194N, 639W, 45, 999, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal062022.dat

[aspen]

Earl has a pretty good ceiling if the models are right about it having a favorable interaction with a trough during its recurve. Look at that large swath of 29.5C to event 30C SSTs above 20N in its path (NHC 5-day forecast cone traced over the SST plot from Tropical Tidbits). It'll also have several more days over >27C SSTs before it'll have to worry about extratropical transition. If all goes well for Earl - something that isn't guaranteed in 2022 - then we could see a major out of this, maybe even something as strong as a Cat 4. I've been thinking this could be an east-shifted version of Humberto '19, and so far that seems to be a very probable solution.

[ScottNAtlanta]

That's a huge blowup of convection near the center going off now.

[tolakram]

SLIDER proxy visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=13440&y=6820&z=4&angle=0&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Hammy]

Center looks about here based on radar motion.

[Sciencerocks]

[Landy]

Center looks about here based on radar motion.

https://i.imgur.com/OdnlAoh.png

It looks like it's been taking a WSW jog?

[Iceresistance]

Consistent, deep convection over Earl right now, it's likely decoupled, but it could do a center reformation further east.

[ChrisH-UK]

Heres Earl as of 08:30. GOES-16 Snow/Ice + Clean IR 2 Mesoscale 2hr loop, source https://col.st/hppFq

This was the last ASCAT pass. Source - https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmo ... t/uhr.html

[Hammy]

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA/loop.html Live radar from San Juan, seems like the center has moved northeast slightly over the last 8 hours, likely being tugged closer to the convection by that earlier burst

[aspen]

Recon took off about 2 hours ago, but there hasn’t been any communications since then. Is Tropical Tidbits not loading recon data, or are we not getting any communication whatsoever from this flight, or did they turn back?

[tolakram]

saved loop

[hipshot]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/9BAfeHl.gif

That surely makes it look like it took a jog toward the east right near the end of that loop or...
it was an optical illusion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[ChrisH-UK]

Now that the shear is relaxing looks like Earl is taking full advantage of it.

GOES-16 Geo Colour + IR - https://col.st/H5EQu

[cycloneye]

AL, 06, 2022090412, , BEST, 0, 195N, 644W, 45, 998, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal062022.dat