ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

The 18:17 recon update just came in…40 minutes late. Still no word from the Kay plane.

Edit: 18z best track is still at 55kt/998mb, so either Earl hasn’t intensified, or even the NHC doesn’t have any recon data from AF308.

AF308 has gone into the CoC of Earl, but the pressure sensor is apparently bad and will not give out Extrapolated pressure data.

[aspen]

Still nothing from AF308. Is NOAA3 another low-level recon mission, or is it an upper level mission?

[Nimbus]

The 18:17 recon update just came in…40 minutes late. Still no word from the Kay plane.

Edit: 18z best track is still at 55kt/998mb, so either Earl hasn’t intensified, or even the NHC doesn’t have any recon data from AF308.

AF308 has gone into the CoC of Earl, but the pressure sensor is apparently bad and will not give out Extrapolated pressure data.

Last position

"Aircraft Position: 22.33°N 65.57°W
Bearing: 315° at 164 kt
Altitude: 1539 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 46 kt at 53°"

I think the wind speed may be a knot off as well but still looks like a tropical storm moored just south of 22N.
Nasty squall line set up over Puerto Rico with more lightning strikes.

[NotSparta]

Still nothing from AF308. Is NOAA3 another low-level recon mission, or is it an upper level mission?

Another low-level. Flies around 700mb

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hot towers are rotating around the COC in Earl. Its trying really hard to intensify.

[aspen]

Now NOAA3 hasn’t transmitted anything in roughly half an hour. Even the NOAA planes aren’t spared from today’s bad recon communication luck.

[kevin]

Earl was already at 55 kt 7 hours ago. Since then it has organized itself further, tucked its CoC better under its convection. And as InfernoFlameCat just mentioned you can clearly see fast rotating hot towers now, usually a sign of (rapid) intensification. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the current mission finds a minimal cat 1 (65 kt). At the very least I expect continued moderate intensification (so from 55 kt to 60 kt).

[cycloneye]

It has not been the best day in the communications department for the squadron. Hopefully, they can resolve whatever is going on for tommorows missions for Earl and Kay.

[aspen]

It has not been the best day in the communications department for the squadron. Hopefully, they can resolve whatever is going on for tommorows missions for Earl and Kay.

Are they any other Earl flights scheduled for today?

[cycloneye]

It has not been the best day in the communications department for the squadron. Hopefully, they can resolve whatever is going on for tommorows missions for Earl and Kay.

Are they any other Earl flights scheduled for today?

No. The next one goes at 4 AM.

[aspen]

Seems like the NHC was able to receive data from AF308. However, I find it odd that they mention pressure from the flight, but choose to use satellite estimates for wind estimates, so maybe they didn’t get anything from AF308.

However, data received by this
afternoon's Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft suggests the
pressure has not yet fallen much from this morning. Subjective
satellite intensity estimates have a wide range, with TAFB at
T4.0/65-kt while SAB is at T3.0/45-kt. The initial intensity this
advisory will remain 55 kt. Another NOAA-P3 reconnaissance mission
is en route to investigate Earl further this evening.

[tolakram]

Floater just moved but should be fun to watch for the next few hours.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Wider view

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-prregional-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

SLIDER proxy visible for after sunset
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=12522&y=6032&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Hammy]

It has not been the best day in the communications department for the squadron. Hopefully, they can resolve whatever is going on for tommorows missions for Earl and Kay.

Are they any other Earl flights scheduled for today?

No. The next one goes at 4 AM.

Discussion and Tropical Tidbits indicate one is presently on the way.

[aspen]

Are they any other Earl flights scheduled for today?

No. The next one goes at 4 AM.

Discussion and Tropical Tidbits indicate one is presently on the way.

I was including that among the flights that already went out today. According to some tweets between Alex and Andy, it’s just the public sites that aren’t loading the recon data — the actual flights are going along just fine.

[Nimbus]

No. The next one goes at 4 AM.

Discussion and Tropical Tidbits indicate one is presently on the way.

I was including that among the flights that already went out today. According to some tweets between Alex and Andy, it’s just the public sites that aren’t loading the recon data — the actual flights are going along just fine.

Upper level low spinning over White sands New Mexico with high pressure to the east.
And they sent a NOAA flight for data.
But the data isn't available to the public they are going to keep us in the dark.
Reminds me of that old Mad Max movie thunder dome "who run Barter town?"

[aspen]

NOAA3 data just appeared on Tropical Tidbits. They only just reached the western edge of Earl’s circulation, so we haven’t missed anything interesting yet. Hopefully data will continue to come in on TT as normal.

[Sciencerocks]

[cheezyWXguy]

Based on satellite trends today, I would bet we get a center fix a bit deeper inside the convection and pressure a few mb deeper. Until it ditches that tail, it won’t be fast strengthening, but this is by far the best earl has ever looked and I have half a mind to think recon will find winds that just barely justify hurricane strength

[aspen]

Based on satellite trends today, I would bet we get a center fix a bit deeper inside the convection and pressure a few mb deeper. Until it ditches that tail, it won’t be fast strengthening, but this is by far the best earl has ever looked and I have half a mind to think recon will find winds that just barely justify hurricane strength

Recon just found the center to be deeper in that burst of convection, but so far the pressure is still in the upper 990s. The NW quadrant yielded FL winds of ~50 kt and SFMR of 60 kt.

[Emmett_Brown]

Recon finding pressures have not fallen much, and center is on the south side just under the convection, so Earl is still tilted. Shear still holding him back so far, but still looking gradually stronger