WPAC: MUIFA - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

91W.INVEST

91W INVEST 220904 0000 26.0N 145.8E WPAC 15 1009

WP, 91, 2022090312, , BEST, 0, 250N, 1471E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
WP, 91, 2022090318, , BEST, 0, 255N, 1466E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
WP, 91, 2022090400, , BEST, 0, 260N, 1458E, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/secto ... ector_file

[Hayabusa]

Interesting ensemble track from NE to SW.

[Hayabusa]

Medium

ABPW10 PGTW 051230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051230Z-060600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050751ZSEP2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 05SEP22 0600Z, TYPHOON 12W (HINNAMNOR) WAS LOCATED NEAR
31.1N 125.5E, APPROXIMATELY 301 NM SOUTHWEST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING TO
130 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 050900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.4N 140.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
051130Z HIMAWARI-8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED,
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING
CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. INVEST 91W DISPLAYS FAVORABLY LOW
(5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ACCOMPANIED WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. BASED ON MODEL
GUIDANCE 91W WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND HEAD GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

91W INVEST 220905 1200 24.1N 139.4E WPAC 20 1008

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/secto ... ector_file

[Hayabusa]

TD

[Hayabusa]

06z eps

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 051200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 051200.
WARNING VALID 061200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 24.0N 139.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WSW SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING‎ .

[Hayabusa]

12z

[Hayabusa]

91W INVEST 220906 0000 22.5N 137.4E WPAC 25 1004

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 060330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.5N 137.4E TO 18.3N 135.1E WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060251Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 137.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.4N 139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 052149Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WARM SST VALUES (30-31C) REMAIN FAVORABLE.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS WITH A COMPLEX MERGER OCCURRING WITH INVEST 92W AND GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070330Z.//
NNNN

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like this could become another strong typhoon. Could be another interesting track too

[Hayabusa]

HWRF 06Z makes this a cat 4 in 5 days

[Hayabusa]

Now 14W

14W INVEST 220906 1200 19.6N 136.4E WPAC 30 1002

[Hayabusa]

First warning another major coming

[Hayabusa]

Pretty short prognostics on the first warning

WDPN32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.6N 136.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 630 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA,
JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT
RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 061130Z BULLSEYE
ASCAT PASS SHOWING A TIGHT AND WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 30-KT WIND BARBS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST, MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LAYER EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 14W WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR EXTENSION, THE MOTION SLOWED DUE TO
BINARY INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING CYCLONE (INVEST 92W) 300NM TO THE
EAST. THE STR EXTENSION IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE, ALLOWING TD 14W TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 AS THE MAIN STR TO THE NORTHWEST
TAKES FULL CONTROL OF STEERING. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE
A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 60KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
TO 100KTS BY TAU 120, POSSIBLY HIGHER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE INITIAL SET OF NUMERICAL MODELS ARE WIDELY
AND UNEVENLY SPREAD TO OVER 420NM BY TAU 120 WITH AFUM ON THE LEFT
MARGIN AND AEMN ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. IN VIEW
OF THIS, AND GIVEN THE INITIAL TRACK UNCERTAINTY INTRODUCED BY THE
BINARY INTERACTION WITH INVEST 92W, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Multiple tropical cyclone development according to UKMET

[ElectricStorm]

New forecast up to 115kts

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

HWRF peaks it in 3 days, 125 knots.

[Hayabusa]

Peak increase to 120 knots, looks like JTWC is following the HWRF.