ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

06L EARL 220906 1800 23.9N 65.7W ATL 60 994

[Hammy]

Convection collapsing again

[Emmett_Brown]

Looks badly sheared. Recon finding he is actually more robust than he looks.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop supports 994mb, looks like extrap is running a bit to low. I like the 60kt/994mb from NHC, don't think it's quite to hurricane status yet. That said, I'm impressed it been able to get this strong with all that shear. Should put on a show once shear finally lets up in a couple days.

[aspen]

Convection collapsing again

I bet they’ll probably be another one or two more collapses before Earl finally starts getting its act together on Wednesday…assuming the models are right.

[Hammy]

Center about to be exposed, but looks like a small bit of new convection forming on the north.

Eye drop supports 994mb, looks like extrap is running a bit to low. I like the 60kt/994mb from NHC, don't think it's quite to hurricane status yet. That said, I'm impressed it been able to get this strong with all that shear. Should put on a show once shear finally lets up in a couple days.

Given the ET transition is moving up (weird 2006-esque setup with storms transitioning/recurving relatively far south) it'll probably run out of time to get higher than Cat 2. But at the same time shows that these large, monsoonal-origin storms can't be knocked out entirely by shear like the more compact systems we're used to seeing in these conditions.

[aspen]

If the hurricane models are right, Earl should get over its dry air/collapsing convection problems later tomorrow and have an almost complete eyewall Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then it’ll start to RI. If Earl isn’t a mid-low 980s hurricane by tomorrow night and is still plagued by dry air being shoved into the core, then a major is looking less likely. So far, though, it has much of Thursday, all of Friday, and maybe the early parts of Saturday to intensify. Post-tropical transition will probably start Saturday and maybe complete as early as that night, or early Sunday.

[Iceresistance]

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT EARL IS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...

5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 6
Location: 24.1°N 65.8°W
Moving: NNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Now we have intermediate advisories for Earl starting at 8 PM AST.

[Hammy]

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT EARL IS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...

5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 6
Location: 24.1°N 65.8°W
Moving: NNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Now we have intermediate advisories for Earl starting at 8 PM AST.

Good call especially given how much the wind field is going to expand, it's quickly becoming less likely Bermuda will escape the winds from this. But also, no more 'will they or won't they' waiting with the intensity now

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Given the ET transition is moving up (weird 2006-esque setup with storms transitioning/recurving relatively far south) it'll probably run out of time to get higher than Cat 2. But at the same time shows that these large, monsoonal-origin storms can't be knocked out entirely by shear like the more compact systems we're used to seeing in these conditions.

Looks like a pretty normal ET transition zone to me, but that's just me eyeballing the map

[Hammy]

Given the ET transition is moving up (weird 2006-esque setup with storms transitioning/recurving relatively far south) it'll probably run out of time to get higher than Cat 2. But at the same time shows that these large, monsoonal-origin storms can't be knocked out entirely by shear like the more compact systems we're used to seeing in these conditions.

Looks like a pretty normal ET transition zone to me, but that's just me eyeballing the map
https://i.imgur.com/nTCaTfJ.png

Most of the modeling indicates south of 40 latitude, which seems decently south of what you typically see in early September

[Nimbus]

Forecast puts Bermuda on the weak side of a major hurricane.
With the forward speed they probably won't see hurricane force winds.

[aspen]

NOAA3 just arrived at Earl. We’ll soon see if this latest convective collapse is the start of another brief weakening phase, or if Earl is indeed a hurricane.

[Iceresistance]

HOLY CRAP! 982.8 MB Extrapolated!?


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/NOAA2-Recon-into-Earl.png

[Hammy]

NOAA3 has an extrapolated pressure of 995.9 MB and it's not even at the center until the next update comes out.

ETA: HOLY CRAP! 982.8 MB Extrapolated!?

Convective collapse might've been the center clearing out--looks like we might have the beginnings of a ragged eyewall/eye

[aspen]

70kt FL and SFMR. We have Hurricane Earl.

[Hammy]

Wonder if they'll issue a special statement or just wait until 8pm

[cheezyWXguy]

NOAA3 has an extrapolated pressure of 995.9 MB and it's not even at the center until the next update comes out.

ETA: HOLY CRAP! 982.8 MB Extrapolated!?

Convective collapse might've been the center clearing out--looks like we might have the beginnings of a ragged eyewall/eye

https://i.imgur.com/qvzOiDS.png

Looping satellite imagery makes it look as though the deepest convection is probably firing off the nw eyewall, so I think that may actually be just a dry spot in the se quad. Lol if Earl is actually a hurricane, he sure is an ugly one at this point

[aspen]

A dropsonde in the northern eyewall found 65 kt surface winds. Definitely a hurricane now.