Texas Fall 2022

[bubba hotep]

Cells still firing over FTW.

[rwfromkansas]

Nice cell over me again. Some hail but very small luckily. May get another inch.

[gpsnowman]

Wife and I took a long walk at Campion Trail in Irving and saw the most beautiful sunset. We could see the clouds and lightning to the east and west of us. Purples and oranges all around us. It's the simple things that make one love weather and nature.

[rwfromkansas]

Wow; 1.55. Quite the storm after a half inch yesterday. Nasty hail just west.

[TropicalTundra]

CMC and GFS (and maybe ICON) models are considering some possible cooler low temperatures with mid-upper 50's possible for Texas and Oklahoma next week. It's not cold-front type temperatures with blazing north winds throughout the day but it's definitely a start in model shifts.

[weatherdude1108]

Yep, what I was afraid of. Background state not on our side for rain and cool temps.

Hoping this forecast BUSTS.

[lukem]

Yep, what I was afraid of. Background state not on our side for rain and cool temps.

Hoping this forecast BUSTS.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

Crazy that it was showing the complete opposite as recently as last week. Hopefully we see another reversal!

[dpep4]

Sunny, very pleasant mid-60's to upper 50's dewpoints, and highs in the 89-91 range for the next week in DFW? Heck yes I'll take that, that's barely hot.

Finally don't have to wait until almost sundown to walk or bike (without rain or lightning risk).

[Brent]

Sunny, very pleasant mid-60's to upper 50's dewpoints, and highs in the 89-91 range for the next week in DFW? Heck yes I'll take that, that's barely hot.

Finally don't have to wait until almost sundown to walk or bike (without rain or lightning risk).

Yeah it's definitely been better up here. We've had 60s most mornings and barely getting to 90 and it's really only hot at the very peak of the afternoon. That coupled with the early sunsets now it's definitely different than it was in July. I do food delivery most days and after 5-6pm you really start to notice a difference whereas back in July it felt like it would never cool off(and well usually it didn't ... I can still remember the airport being near 90 degrees a few times after 10pm )

[cstrunk]

A nice cluster of morning thunderstorms in ETX gave me 0.96". Now for a week or more of sunny dry weather. The grass is really going to get going again after these recent rains and now plenty of sun on the way! I just hope the dry pattern doesn't last too long.

[weatherdude1108]

Yep, what I was afraid of. Background state not on our side for rain and cool temps.

Hoping this forecast BUSTS.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

Crazy that it was showing the complete opposite as recently as last week. Hopefully we see another reversal!

I know. I don't know what happened(?). All the weather guy said was that they originally thought the low pressure over Texas was going to get cut off and hang out in TX for a week or more, giving us a nother several inches possibly. They talked about Pacific moisture being fed in by the tropical systems in the Pacific, along with stalled boundaries to fuel it more. But they said the low opened up and moved east after all. along with the western death ridge amplifying, moving the tropical systems west away from the Mexican coast. The pattern had a mind of its own. Ugh.

I did notice with each passing half day, the 7-day totals kept inching down with each forecast. That's when I wondered how much more (if anything) we would actually get. I think there are some people around Central Texas (and other parts of Texas) that didn't get much if anything the past couple weeks, at least nothing "agriculturally/horticulturally significant", much less hydrologically.

Gotta love the weather! I don't know if I can believe these long-term forecasts anymore.

[lukem]

Yep, what I was afraid of. Background state not on our side for rain and cool temps.

Hoping this forecast BUSTS.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

Crazy that it was showing the complete opposite as recently as last week. Hopefully we see another reversal!

I know. I don't know what happened(?). All the weather guy said was that they originally thought the low pressure over Texas was going to get cut off and hang out in TX for a week or more, giving us a nother several inches possibly. They talked about Pacific moisture being fed in by the tropical systems in the Pacific, along with stalled boundaries to fuel it more. But they said the low opened up and moved east after all. along with the western death ridge amplifying, moving the tropical systems west away from the Mexican coast. The pattern had a mind of its own. Ugh.

I did notice with each passing half day, the 7-day totals kept inching down with each forecast. That's when I wondered how much more (if anything) we would actually get. I think there are some people around Central Texas (and other parts of Texas) that didn't get much if anything the past couple weeks, at least nothing "agriculturally/horticulturally significant", much less hydrologically.

Gotta love the weather! I don't know if I can believe these long-term forecasts anymore.

It looks like the CPC is giving us another shot in Weeks 3-4. Hope it holds! We have a place in west central Texas, and we definitely missed out on the big rain, although we probably got enough to get our grass growing again. Another rain event in September would really help us out.

[jasons2k]

Hot off the presses from Jeff Lindner.

This is why I was complaining - even though I saw some drought relief, not nearly as much as my neighbors, or IAH, or as much as I needed for sustained relief. Every drop matters in a La Nina year!! Maybe we'll get something today to help us out - prefer to not have it hail though.

Strong or isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across the region.

A strong upper level disturbance moving southward over NW LA and NE TX currently is producing a cluster of strong thunderstorms over NE TX. Air mass south of this activity is heating and with surface temperatures increasing into the low to mid 90’s by early to mid afternoon, high instability will be in place to support this activity SW into SE TX. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop and push SW across the area being helped with lift from the disturbance aloft. Main hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and very heavy rainfall. Soundings do show some modestly dry sub cloud layers and this could help support gusty wind or downbursts. Activity may linger in an isolated fashion into the late night hours as energy aloft moves over the area.

Overall pattern change aloft will develop into the weekend and next week with flat upper level ridge of high pressure building from the western US into the southern plains. This will effectively end the ongoing wet pattern of late and reduce rain chances into the 20% or less category from Friday onward into next week.

A weak frontal boundary may approach the region late this weekend and help to usher in an even drier air mass. Low temperatures early next week may fall well into the 60’s east of I-45 and north of I-10 and near 70 over much of the area as dewpoints fall into the 60’s with dry northerly flow at the surface and aloft.

August ended with 8.58 inches of rainfall at BUSH IAH which is the wettest month we have had since January 2022 (9.42 inches). In fact we had more rain in August than for the months of April-July (7.77. inches).

Drought condition have seen a dramatic improvement over much of the area over the last 30 days with a complete removal of the exceptional drought levels west of the Brazos River and significant improvements over Liberty, Harris, Montgomery, San Jacinto, and Walker Counties. While significant improvements have occurred, drought still remains over much of the state and rainfall forecasts over the next week are low with a fairly dry pattern in place.

[Cpv17]

Yep, what I was afraid of. Background state not on our side for rain and cool temps.

Hoping this forecast BUSTS.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

Crazy that it was showing the complete opposite as recently as last week. Hopefully we see another reversal!

I know. I don't know what happened(?). All the weather guy said was that they originally thought the low pressure over Texas was going to get cut off and hang out in TX for a week or more, giving us a nother several inches possibly. They talked about Pacific moisture being fed in by the tropical systems in the Pacific, along with stalled boundaries to fuel it more. But they said the low opened up and moved east after all. along with the western death ridge amplifying, moving the tropical systems west away from the Mexican coast. The pattern had a mind of its own. Ugh.

I did notice with each passing half day, the 7-day totals kept inching down with each forecast. That's when I wondered how much more (if anything) we would actually get. I think there are some people around Central Texas (and other parts of Texas) that didn't get much if anything the past couple weeks, at least nothing "agriculturally/horticulturally significant", much less hydrologically.

Gotta love the weather! I don't know if I can believe these long-term forecasts anymore.

Rain chances for my area were really high ever since the wetter pattern started maybe what, 3 weeks ago? Altogether I picked up about 6” in that time period. So I’m sitting at about 16” for the year now which is still well below normal. I was near 40” last year around this time. But back to what I was saying about the high chances. They failed to deliver here on most days. Yeah I got 6” but most of that came in like 3 or 4 separate events. It just seems like I should’ve gotten more than that. And this past week the WPC had my area down for 3-5” and I got absolutely nothing. And now the switch flipped over the weekend really fast. Just a few days ago the CPC had much of the state still experiencing the wetter pattern through the middle of this month in their 8-14 day outlook. What a weird and abrupt pattern flip back to warm and dry. Overall for me personally, the wetter pattern was on the underwhelming side. I’m thankful for what I got but I’m let down because so many high rain chances didn’t really deliver. Now we go back to our regularly scheduled programming. What we just had was a tease. At least for me.

[Ntxw]

Rain chances for my area were really high ever since the wetter pattern started maybe what, 3 weeks ago? Altogether I picked up about 6” in that time period. So I’m sitting at about 16” for the year now which is still well below normal. I was near 40” last year around this time. But back to what I was saying about the high chances. They failed to deliver here on most days. Yeah I got 6” but most of that came in like 3 or 4 separate events. It just seems like I should’ve gotten more than that. And this past week the WPC had my area down for 3-5” and I got absolutely nothing. And now the switch flipped over the weekend really fast. Just a few days ago the CPC had much of the state still experiencing the wetter pattern through the middle of this month in their 8-14 day outlook. What a weird and abrupt pattern flip back to warm and dry. Overall for me personally, the wetter pattern was on the underwhelming side. I’m thankful for what I got but I’m let down because so many high rain chances didn’t really deliver. Now we go back to our regularly scheduled programming. What we just had was a tease. At least for me.

SOI had teetered really negative with some positives late August that signaled the disturbed wetter pattern. Since then it has strung together another long streak of positives. There is a little lag with the signal. Most disappointed that the EPAC didn't deliver and the track is too far west.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[weatherdude1108]

Getting a moderate thundershower right now!
I thought it would bypass us. We're on eastern fringe of it. I thought we were done. Nice surprise!

Just finished cutting the grass! Awesome!

[Edwards Limestone]

Here comes another outflow moving south towards me...

[Edwards Limestone]

Here comes another outflow moving south towards me...

Cashing in on the north side of SA (Hollywood Park). We need this!!!

The outflow boundary giveth...

[weatherdude1108]

I got 0.25".

My brother In SA just north of the airport had finished mowing his grass. He then got 0.45"! Woohoo! He called it a gift. Looks like the SA airport cashed in with the red for a little bit.


Update: Had a little more and got up to 0.3". These smaller amounts more often are nice.

[Iceresistance]

Another huge improvement on the drought monitor for Texas!