ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Bermuda radar

http://www.weather.bm/radar.asp

[cheezyWXguy]

As I suspected, NHC went with 90 kts. They never like to indicate weakening prior to landfall or a close-approach, no matter what recon says.

If the next plane in fails to find winds that justify 90kt, I’ll side with you, but for now it looks to me like they happened to cross during an interval where the strongest quadrant was dry slotted. If it was just a short period where winds were down, it doesn’t bug me that they retained 90kt.

[wxman57]

As I suspected, NHC went with 90 kts. They never like to indicate weakening prior to landfall or a close-approach, no matter what recon says.

If the next plane in fails to find winds that justify 90kt, I’ll side with you, but for now it looks to me like they happened to cross during an interval where the strongest quadrant was dry slotted. If it was just a short period where winds were down, it doesn’t bug me that they retained 90kt.

Yeah, I agree, the plane happened to make all of its passes when there were no 90 kt winds anywhere to be found, even at flight level. I also agree that winds should be higher later when the eye contracts. I've been watching NHC forecasts for 40+ years. They do not ever like to indicate weakening for a storm making landfall or approaching land. Their job is to keep the public safe. If they say "Earl's weakening", then the public may not pay as much attention.

[wxman57]

Speaking of the next recon, it's looking like the plane had an issue and is returning to St. Croix.

[cheezyWXguy]

As I suspected, NHC went with 90 kts. They never like to indicate weakening prior to landfall or a close-approach, no matter what recon says.

If the next plane in fails to find winds that justify 90kt, I’ll side with you, but for now it looks to me like they happened to cross during an interval where the strongest quadrant was dry slotted. If it was just a short period where winds were down, it doesn’t bug me that they retained 90kt.

Yeah, I agree, the plane happened to make all of its passes when there were no 90 kt winds anywhere to be found, even at flight level. I also agree that winds should be higher later when the eye contracts. I've been watching NHC forecasts for 40+ years. They do not ever like to indicate weakening for a storm making landfall or approaching land. Their job is to keep the public safe. If they say "Earl's weakening", then the public may not pay as much attention.

Can’t tell if that first line sarcasm or not, but they found 93kt FL winds in the last mission. Correct me if I’m wrong, but if a hurricane’s max winds were 90kt, wouldn’t they be restricted to a small portion of the strongest quadrant and nowhere else? If I’m looking at the map right, they only made one pass through the east quad where those winds would be expected to be found.

[aspen]

Speaking of the next recon, it's looking like the plane had an issue and is returning to St. Croix.

Another one is on the pad now. This recon delay could give Earl enough time to work out the dry air, and maybe this flight will support Cat 2 intensity.

[cycloneye]

Plane is flying now.

[Hurricane Mike]

New video update on Hurricane Earl
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hG8LHYWK2Aw

[aspen]

The dry slot is still very evident on satellite imagery. You’d think Earl’s dry air problems would be done now that shear has dropped to below 10 kt.

[Iceresistance]

Starting to do the east turn as the NHC expected


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/94999267.gif

[wxman57]

If the next plane in fails to find winds that justify 90kt, I’ll side with you, but for now it looks to me like they happened to cross during an interval where the strongest quadrant was dry slotted. If it was just a short period where winds were down, it doesn’t bug me that they retained 90kt.

Yeah, I agree, the plane happened to make all of its passes when there were no 90 kt winds anywhere to be found, even at flight level. I also agree that winds should be higher later when the eye contracts. I've been watching NHC forecasts for 40+ years. They do not ever like to indicate weakening for a storm making landfall or approaching land. Their job is to keep the public safe. If they say "Earl's weakening", then the public may not pay as much attention.

Can’t tell if that first line sarcasm or not, but they found 93kt FL winds in the last mission. Correct me if I’m wrong, but if a hurricane’s max winds were 90kt, wouldn’t they be restricted to a small portion of the strongest quadrant and nowhere else? If I’m looking at the map right, they only made one pass through the east quad where those winds would be expected to be found.

First line was semi-sarcastic. Sometimes a storms max winds are located over only a few square miles and then they may only be transient, rotating around the storm. It's very difficult to sample hundreds of square miles using a single recon plane. However, if Earl was producing sustained surface winds of 90 kts, the plane should have found higher winds at flight level. It's only very rarely that a plane might hit the max sustained wind area. And then, that area is rotating around the storm and fluctuating in intensity.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking recon finds similar winds/pressure to the previous mission, although it does look like Earl is trying to rebuild the eyewall. Still needs deeper convection on the east side, and it needs to finish mixing out the dry air for it to really take off.

I'm a bit skeptical this reaches Cat 4 but it would be neat to see one that far north. I think slow strengthening to a 100-105kt peak might be a bit more likely, but we'll see.

[kevin]

The eyewall (of a smaller eye) now fully connects again on IR, even though there's still a dry slot it has to get rid of. Will probably do so soon, but I agree that I doubt whether it'll happen fast enough for this recon plane to find significantly stronger winds. It does look beautiful on VIS though imo, something about this ragged look (kinda reminiscent of Epilson 2020) is really nice to look at.

[aspen]

Maybe this dry air intrusion has resulted in the eye drastically shrinking. It doesn’t seem like Earl’s eye is going to be as big anymore once it fully clears out, and one of the bands that might’ve belonged to the old eyewall is just getting further and further from the core. Recon is getting close to its first center pass and should give us some clear answers on how the core has evolved.

[wxman57]

Might be a small area of hurricane-force wind in the SW quadrant (60-65 kts), according to recon.

[Iceresistance]

Earl is still deepening, 960.8 MB extrapolated at the lowest.

[Hammy]

Looking less likely this reaches major hurricane, it really only has about 24h to do so before extratropical transition process begins. Pressure drop is being countered by the expanding wind field

[skyline385]

With a pressure gradient looking like this, i doubt it gets to a major anytime soon




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[WiscoWx02]

With a pressure gradient looking like this, i doubt it gets to a major anytime soon

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220908/a9a9251ca9fe10539869480a29d31c76.jpg


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I agree…I’m not expecting Earl to reach category 3 intensity much less category 4…the structure is too ragged and the wind field is too big.

[wxman57]

With a pressure gradient looking like this, i doubt it gets to a major anytime soon

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220908/a9a9251ca9fe10539869480a29d31c76.jpg

Right, it's all about the pressure gradient, not the pressure itself. Looks like Earl just has a weak pressure gradient. Plane found a 90kt FL wind in the NE eyewall, but surface SFMR only 65 kts. As Earl moves over cooler water, that FL wind will not make it down to the surface as well.