Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

[CyclonicFury]

Danielle is about to become a hurricane again, and Earl is looking increasingly likely to become a hurricane in the future. The two storms should produce some decent ACE, though probably not enough to get the Atlantic back to average.

[aspen]

Danielle is about to become a hurricane again, and Earl is looking increasingly likely to become a hurricane in the future. The two storms should produce some decent ACE, though probably not enough to get the Atlantic back to average.

It’s gonna take a backloaded season on the level of 2016 or 2020 to get this season up to average, and who knows what the rest of the season will be like after Hinnamnor inserts itself into the global circulation patterns.

[TheDreamTraveler]

It is not just the tropics, the whole Northern Hemsphere has been freaky when it comes to anomalous weather. The atmosphere has been persistently blocked for almost the whole year so far. Europe is suffering its worst drought in 500 years, and the UK smashed its previous record highest temperature in a July heatwave. Drought is affecting much of China and parts of the U.S. These blocking events and resultant stagnant weather patterns are related to Rossby waves becoming locked into a particular phase with persistent ridging across large regions (drought) and persistent troughing (floods) in other regions. I wonder if there is some significance of the blocked Northern hemisphere atmosphere when it comes to trying to explain why the Atlantic hurricane season has been so quiet during a period where significant activity should have taken off by now.

A interesting new study from August came out from the Tonga volcano eruption that said the eruption put 10% of the entirety of the stratosphere's water vapor directly into the stratosphere at once. So now it has 10% extra water vapor than it had previously. The study says this will effect global climate patterns. There's a very good article on NPR explaining it. I would not be surprised if all the weird weather, especially in the atlantic, is partly responsible. Especially now that it's been 9 months since it erupted. Volcanic eruptions have been proven in the past to alter weather patterns. Even the Pinatubo eruption might have played a role in the Storm of the Century. though that one was more ash and gas compared to Tonga's water vapor. Basically given human history we have never seen anything put this much water vapor high up into the stratosphere before at once. Most volcano's usually put ash and gasses into it, not water vapor. But since Tonga was underwater it was at the perfect depth to steam the water and shoot it high up. It will take 5 years for all of this new water vapor to dissipate

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/11153783 ... er-warming

[Hammy]

It is not just the tropics, the whole Northern Hemsphere has been freaky when it comes to anomalous weather. The atmosphere has been persistently blocked for almost the whole year so far. Europe is suffering its worst drought in 500 years, and the UK smashed its previous record highest temperature in a July heatwave. Drought is affecting much of China and parts of the U.S. These blocking events and resultant stagnant weather patterns are related to Rossby waves becoming locked into a particular phase with persistent ridging across large regions (drought) and persistent troughing (floods) in other regions. I wonder if there is some significance of the blocked Northern hemisphere atmosphere when it comes to trying to explain why the Atlantic hurricane season has been so quiet during a period where significant activity should have taken off by now.

A interesting new study from August came out from the Tonga volcano eruption that said the eruption put 10% of the entirety of the stratosphere's water vapor directly into the stratosphere at once. So now it has 10% extra water vapor than it had previously. The study says this will effect global climate patterns. There's a very good article on NPR explaining it. I would not be surprised if all the weird weather, especially in the atlantic, is partly responsible. Especially now that it's been 9 months since it erupted. Volcanic eruptions have been proven in the past to alter weather patterns. Even the Pinatubo eruption might have played a role in the Storm of the Century. though that one was more ash and gas compared to Tonga's water vapor. Basically given human history we have never seen anything put this much water vapor high up into the stratosphere before at once. Most volcano's usually put ash and gasses into it, not water vapor. But since Tonga was underwater it was at the perfect depth to steam the water and shoot it high up. It will take 5 years for all of this new water vapor to dissipate

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/11153783 ... er-warming

A bit off topic question but between this and the hurricane season potentially underperforming, could this also result in a more snowy winter for the Southeast than would otherwise occur for La Nina?

[TheDreamTraveler]

It is not just the tropics, the whole Northern Hemsphere has been freaky when it comes to anomalous weather. The atmosphere has been persistently blocked for almost the whole year so far. Europe is suffering its worst drought in 500 years, and the UK smashed its previous record highest temperature in a July heatwave. Drought is affecting much of China and parts of the U.S. These blocking events and resultant stagnant weather patterns are related to Rossby waves becoming locked into a particular phase with persistent ridging across large regions (drought) and persistent troughing (floods) in other regions. I wonder if there is some significance of the blocked Northern hemisphere atmosphere when it comes to trying to explain why the Atlantic hurricane season has been so quiet during a period where significant activity should have taken off by now.

A interesting new study from August came out from the Tonga volcano eruption that said the eruption put 10% of the entirety of the stratosphere's water vapor directly into the stratosphere at once. So now it has 10% extra water vapor than it had previously. The study says this will effect global climate patterns. There's a very good article on NPR explaining it. I would not be surprised if all the weird weather, especially in the atlantic, is partly responsible. Especially now that it's been 9 months since it erupted. Volcanic eruptions have been proven in the past to alter weather patterns. Even the Pinatubo eruption might have played a role in the Storm of the Century. though that one was more ash and gas compared to Tonga's water vapor. Basically given human history we have never seen anything put this much water vapor high up into the stratosphere before at once. Most volcano's usually put ash and gasses into it, not water vapor. But since Tonga was underwater it was at the perfect depth to steam the water and shoot it high up. It will take 5 years for all of this new water vapor to dissipate

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/11153783 ... er-warming

A bit off topic question but between this and the hurricane season potentially underperforming, could this also result in a more snowy winter for the Southeast than would otherwise occur for La Nina?

It's really hard to say honestly. It depends what kind of effects this could have on global climate patterns on top of the current patterns already in place. I'd say this is uncharted territory because we've never experienced anything putting so much water vapor so high up into the stratosphere at once. When we get closer to the winter season I think we'll have a better idea of how winter will play out as a whole

[CyclonicFury]

Danielle did not get as strong as some models predicted it would, but it has still produced a fair amount of ACE. Earl is likely to become a hurricane in a couple days and could become the first major. Model support is increasing for the 10/40 AOI, and I think there's a good chance it becomes Fiona. These systems might be enough to pull 2022 out of the historically quiet category. We'll see.

[Hurricaneman]

My feeling is this season is just a late bloomer and the big one happens in October with 3 to 4 majors the entire season

[Category5Kaiju]

My feeling is this season is just a late bloomer and the big one happens in October with 3 to 4 majors the entire season

I think we'll see at least two "high profile" storms in the end; one a long-tracked, MDR born system in mid to late September, and a Caribbean/GoM monster in October.

[CFLHurricane]

My feeling is this season is just a late bloomer and the big one happens in October with 3 to 4 majors the entire season

My feeling is that the Iberian Peninsula will see more cyclonic action than the Floridian Peninsula this year due to a split Bermuda-Azores high during September and sweeping fronts in October.

[Hammy]

I'm ready to call the season as a likely below normal given Earl is drastically underperforming in intensity and the Atlantic has become significantly more hostile, and not less as I had expected

[Category5Kaiju]

I was a bit young back then and wasn't tracking, but I wonder what the general attitude amongst trackers was like in 2016, in September and weeks before Matthew happened

[aspen]

I'm ready to call the season as a likely below normal given Earl is drastically underperforming in intensity and the Atlantic has become significantly more hostile, and not less as I had expected

I’m very skeptical we’ll get past 10 NS. VP forecasts show a ton of sinking air over Africa and the eastern Atlantic during much of October, while a rising branch establishes itself over CA/SA/the EPac. Earl might be the last opportunity this season has to produce a major, because with how hostile the basin has been and how bad the VP forecast for October looks, this month might be it for noteworthy storms.

I read that CSU’s hurricane forecasting department lost a lot of funding after the forecast busts in 2013. I really hope that doesn’t repeat itself this year.

[tolakram]

I'm ready to call the season as a likely below normal given Earl is drastically underperforming in intensity and the Atlantic has become significantly more hostile, and not less as I had expected

I’m very skeptical we’ll get past 10 NS. VP forecasts show a ton of sinking air over Africa and the eastern Atlantic during much of October, while a rising branch establishes itself over CA/SA/the EPac. Earl might be the last opportunity this season has to produce a major, because with how hostile the basin has been and how bad the VP forecast for October looks, this month might be it for noteworthy storms.

I read that CSU’s hurricane forecasting department lost a lot of funding after the forecast busts in 2013. I really hope that doesn’t repeat itself this year.

These funders of CSU, where will they turn for a better forecast? Who is doing better? Why is it important to even mention it? I'd also point out that the belief / non belief in what models show seems to be fluttering in the wind. Unexpected seasons should be interesting, not maddening.

[Hammy]

I'm ready to call the season as a likely below normal given Earl is drastically underperforming in intensity and the Atlantic has become significantly more hostile, and not less as I had expected

I’m very skeptical we’ll get past 10 NS.

I'm going by ACE in this regard. I still think we'll have 11-15 NS, CFS continues to show an active October, and the season is going according to what the model showed a month ago.

The problem is the storms it's showing are very large, and similar to what it presently has with Earl, so we may end up seeing a lot of late September/October storms with low pressure but flat pressure fields, something essentially showing up in the model. It's looking less likely that we'll see a long tracking major type of storm this season.

[MHC Tracking]

I'm ready to call the season as a likely below normal given Earl is drastically underperforming in intensity and the Atlantic has become significantly more hostile, and not less as I had expected

<75 ACE looks likely imo

[WiscoWx02]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1567974996181409792




Earl was probably the last one IMO. Wouldn't be shocked if we end the season right here with Earl at this point. I'm really beginning to doubt that activity picks up in October because this whole year has been a "oh wait until......." I think I would be fooling myself to think that anything significant is going to happen going forward, I'm tracking Earl as if its the last

[MHC Tracking]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1567974996181409792

Earl was probably the last one IMO. Wouldn't be shocked if we end the season right here with Earl at this point. I'm really beginning to doubt that activity picks up in October because this whole year has been a "oh wait until......." I think I would be fooling myself to think that anything significant is going to happen going forward, I'm tracking Earl as if its the last

I would not be surprised if nothing develops in the MDR after Earl. With regards to the whole basin, maybe a couple things in the subtropics

[InfernoFlameCat]

Anybody else getting an el Nino vibe to this season?

[MHC Tracking]

Anybody else getting an el Nino vibe to this season?

Feels like 1997, without the active July - which is strange considering the polar opposite setup in the ENSO regions. I guess the anomalous northern NATL just acts like a Nino on the basin

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1567974996181409792

Earl was probably the last one IMO. Wouldn't be shocked if we end the season right here with Earl at this point. I'm really beginning to doubt that activity picks up in October because this whole year has been a "oh wait until......." I think I would be fooling myself to think that anything significant is going to happen going forward, I'm tracking Earl as if its the last

It's September 8th. Earl is not going to be the last storm, and very likely won't be the last hurricane either. We don't know yet what the October Caribbean/GoM season will be like yet.