2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[toad strangler]

Don’t let your guard down!

 http://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1567984971372961793




 http://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1567993073933733889

[Category5Kaiju]

It honestly amazes me that Inez and Georges happened. We'll see what September 15 and beyond will bring once we get there, but I've recently been reading up on some past historic storms, and for late September systems, I am quite surprised that those two historic and powerful storms did not just recurve

[TheDreamTraveler]

Just glancing at the visible satellite of the eastern Atlantic. You can see SAL is not as thick, and seems to be traveling in a more westerly direction, instead of being driven SW into the MDR as it was a couple of weeks ago. Also, the wave just W of the Cabo Verde islands seems to be soaking up some of the SAL, perhaps allowing more favorable conditions for the waves to come.

Where did the SAL of July/August compare to previous seasons? Was it average or above average? I assume it was the SW direction that had to do with it lingering more than I thought it would?

I'm not an SAL expert, but I remember seeing some chatter on Twitter that SAL was pretty average this year, nothing to write home about. I believe SAL is always pretty prevalent in July, which is one reason why July is typically pretty quiet. This year, the SAL seemed to linger a bit longer, and July type conditions lasted thru August. Also, there has been a pattern of subsidence throughout the Atlantic MDR this year that also led to less development. So my observation about the SAL in the past week is more that the pattern seems to be changing to perhaps a more favorable one, but it is just one ingredient in a pie that includes ENSO, MJO, SSTs, position and character of the ITCZ relative to the ever present dust etc.

Yeah SAL is not bad at all right now. It's the dry air from the anticyclonic wave breaking essentially. It's leaving dry air right in the path of storms coming off Africa and choking them to death

[Hammy]

Where did the SAL of July/August compare to previous seasons? Was it average or above average? I assume it was the SW direction that had to do with it lingering more than I thought it would?

I'm not an SAL expert, but I remember seeing some chatter on Twitter that SAL was pretty average this year, nothing to write home about. I believe SAL is always pretty prevalent in July, which is one reason why July is typically pretty quiet. This year, the SAL seemed to linger a bit longer, and July type conditions lasted thru August. Also, there has been a pattern of subsidence throughout the Atlantic MDR this year that also led to less development. So my observation about the SAL in the past week is more that the pattern seems to be changing to perhaps a more favorable one, but it is just one ingredient in a pie that includes ENSO, MJO, SSTs, position and character of the ITCZ relative to the ever present dust etc.

Yeah SAL is not bad at all right now. It's the dry air from the anticyclonic wave breaking essentially. It's leaving dry air right in the path of storms coming off Africa and choking them to death

There was an article or study earlier in the season about the thermohaline circulation being quite a bit stronger than normal this year, I wonder if that's a contributor, where the mirror of 2013 is not a 2020-type season, but simply another under-performer but with opposite factors.

[Category5Kaiju]

I have a question: where exactly is all of this mid-level dry air coming from? Africa? Europe? Or is it unknown?

[TheDreamTraveler]

I'm not an SAL expert, but I remember seeing some chatter on Twitter that SAL was pretty average this year, nothing to write home about. I believe SAL is always pretty prevalent in July, which is one reason why July is typically pretty quiet. This year, the SAL seemed to linger a bit longer, and July type conditions lasted thru August. Also, there has been a pattern of subsidence throughout the Atlantic MDR this year that also led to less development. So my observation about the SAL in the past week is more that the pattern seems to be changing to perhaps a more favorable one, but it is just one ingredient in a pie that includes ENSO, MJO, SSTs, position and character of the ITCZ relative to the ever present dust etc.

Yeah SAL is not bad at all right now. It's the dry air from the anticyclonic wave breaking essentially. It's leaving dry air right in the path of storms coming off Africa and choking them to death

There was an article or study earlier in the season about the thermohaline circulation being quite a bit stronger than normal this year, I wonder if that's a contributor, where the mirror of 2013 is not a 2020-type season, but simply another under-performer but with opposite factors.

The thermohaline circulation being faster usually means that the AMO is in its warm/positive phase. And it getting faster could be a sign that the current active phase won't end anytime soon despite it going on for 27 years now. But that faster circulation should help produce more hurricanes, not less. I really want to know and understand why this season is behaving how it is. It's fun seeing some of the best meteorologists I know being stumped on all the intricate processes at work. Normally we can come up with solutions but we don't have all the answers and this season will most likely be studied in detail after its over to figure out what was really going on.

[Hammy]

I have a question: where exactly is all of this mid-level dry air coming from? Africa? Europe? Or is it unknown?

To my knowledge, there's normally dry air in the subtropics in the eastern Atlantic, due to both proximity to desert, the water temperatures, and the general subtropical circulation.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah SAL is not bad at all right now. It's the dry air from the anticyclonic wave breaking essentially. It's leaving dry air right in the path of storms coming off Africa and choking them to death

There was an article or study earlier in the season about the thermohaline circulation being quite a bit stronger than normal this year, I wonder if that's a contributor, where the mirror of 2013 is not a 2020-type season, but simply another under-performer but with opposite factors.

The thermohaline circulation being faster usually means that the AMO is in its warm/positive phase. And it getting faster could be a sign that the current active phase won't end anytime soon despite it going on for 27 years now. But that faster circulation should help produce more hurricanes, not less. I really want to know and understand why this season is behaving how it is. It's fun seeing some of the best meteorologists I know being stumped on all the intricate processes at work. Normally we can come up with solutions but we don't have all the answers and this season will most likely be studied in detail after its over to figure out what was really going on.

The only plausible (but also very simple) explanation I can think of is the third-year La Nina. Yes, we have not had many in the recent past (2000 being the last time), but maybe there's just something about prolonged Nina events that make things unfavorable in the Atlantic? Other than that, I have very little idea. But that still does not explain why 2000 seems to have had more activity so far despite much cooler sst anomalies and a rather unfavorable look in the tropics.

[aspen]

There was an article or study earlier in the season about the thermohaline circulation being quite a bit stronger than normal this year, I wonder if that's a contributor, where the mirror of 2013 is not a 2020-type season, but simply another under-performer but with opposite factors.

The thermohaline circulation being faster usually means that the AMO is in its warm/positive phase. And it getting faster could be a sign that the current active phase won't end anytime soon despite it going on for 27 years now. But that faster circulation should help produce more hurricanes, not less. I really want to know and understand why this season is behaving how it is. It's fun seeing some of the best meteorologists I know being stumped on all the intricate processes at work. Normally we can come up with solutions but we don't have all the answers and this season will most likely be studied in detail after its over to figure out what was really going on.

The only plausible (but also very simple) explanation I can think of is the third-year La Nina. Yes, we have not had many in the recent past (2000 being the last time), but maybe there's just something about prolonged Nina events that make things unfavorable in the Atlantic? Other than that, I have very little idea. But that still does not explain why 2000 seems to have had more activity so far despite much cooler sst anomalies and a rather unfavorable look in the tropics.

I’ve been wondering if maybe mid-latitude Atlantic heatwaves, or the displaced atmospheric systems causing it, are more associated with 2nd or 3rd year cool ENSOs. The current marine heatwave is likely responsible for all the problems we’re seeing due to the ridiculously warm mid-latitudes compared to only slightly above average deep tropics. However, I don’t think any year has had anything as extreme as this, even if similar warm subtropics/mid-latitudes patterns have shown up in previous triple-dip Nina years.

[TheDreamTraveler]

The thermohaline circulation being faster usually means that the AMO is in its warm/positive phase. And it getting faster could be a sign that the current active phase won't end anytime soon despite it going on for 27 years now. But that faster circulation should help produce more hurricanes, not less. I really want to know and understand why this season is behaving how it is. It's fun seeing some of the best meteorologists I know being stumped on all the intricate processes at work. Normally we can come up with solutions but we don't have all the answers and this season will most likely be studied in detail after its over to figure out what was really going on.

The only plausible (but also very simple) explanation I can think of is the third-year La Nina. Yes, we have not had many in the recent past (2000 being the last time), but maybe there's just something about prolonged Nina events that make things unfavorable in the Atlantic? Other than that, I have very little idea. But that still does not explain why 2000 seems to have had more activity so far despite much cooler sst anomalies and a rather unfavorable look in the tropics.

I’ve been wondering if maybe mid-latitude Atlantic heatwaves, or the displaced atmospheric systems causing it, are more associated with 2nd or 3rd year cool ENSOs. The current marine heatwave is likely responsible for all the problems we’re seeing due to the ridiculously warm mid-latitudes compared to only slightly above average deep tropics. However, I don’t think any year has had anything as extreme as this, even if similar warm subtropics/mid-latitudes patterns have shown up in previous triple-dip Nina years.

The marine heatwave has an answer and that's the constant anticyclonic wave breaking occurring in the same area. That's why temps are at record highs in that area due to it. Though that doesn't tell the whole story since it's only one piece of the puzzle right now. If you want my theory? I wouldn't be surprised if part of this is related to the Tonga volcanic eruption back in January. A new NASA study came out in August that said it added an extra 10% of water vapor to the stratosphere and that this will have impacts and changes on global climate patterns. Volcano's are notorious for changing weather patterns and making some really weird stuff happen. It was one of the most powerful eruptions in the last 100 years next to Pinatubo but it was an underwater volcano so it mainly sent tons of water vapor into the stratosphere and not ash so the changes might be slightly different. There have been studies done on eruptions effects on the ITCZ and how it can displace it

[tolakram]

My impression has always been that dry air in the Atlantic is the only reason the Atlantic does not behave like the WPAC does. It's just a normal part of the equation. 2005 shows what happens when conditions in the western basin are near perfect, and every season would be 2005 if dry air and wind shear are not a problem. This year both dry air and shear are a problem, so it's pretty simple that storms will get ripped apart. It appears many expected these conditions to improve, yet they did not. In hindsight it also appears that the waves getting pulled apart, or breaking, was abnormal for ANY time of the season and maybe should have been recognized sooner?

The Bonnie wave made it all the way across but experienced the normal hostile conditions most of the way. After that waves stopped propagating normally IMO. When discussing the GFS gulf phantom storm I even joked that the MIMIC plot showed NO, 0, zip, rotation in the Caribbean.

Current animation: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

From memory only this is not normal. Moisture looks normal, but lack of rotation in multiple locations does not. This is just from memory though.

Found the archive.

From 2018: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/2018/20180904T000000anim72.gif

Archive of the older MIMIC: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/?M=D

Archive of newer version not working.

[Ntxw]

Just looking at Danielle and Earl, alone, per the NHC progs and extending further out, ACE for just about every day through Sept 12 is likely to be above normal at least through then meaning at or above normal ACE days through a good portion of peak season. And this doesn't include any other TC that may develop. If Earl becomes a major (now forecasted), it alone will generate 4+ per day for those days, which would be at a minimum 160% of the highest ACE average for any day for 1991-2020, which is 2.5 (Sept 15th).

Per 1991-2020 averages, Sep 1-15 average ACE is 33. 2022 could easily end up 40+ for Sep 1-15. That would be quite an impressive turnaround. If Earl were to become a major on 9/8 and remain that way for several days, a 50+ ACE for Sep 1-15 would not just be a remote possibility, especially considering what else may be out there. I'm still at 120 ACE for this season and 6 NS this month.

Danielle has produced 6.6 units of ACE. Its current forecast would generate another ~6 units.

Earl has 1.8 units and current forecast yields anywhere from 6-10 units. After 120H it may be transitioning extratropical in very high latitude. So guessing ~15-20 units, more if it gets significantly stronger than current forecast.

Danielle generated 12.5 units total.

Earl has 10.4 units and with current forecast could possibly yield 5-8 additional units.

In total ~27-30 units for the start of September. A definite jump from August at peak but will need additional activity to recover to normal. Models currently suggest a below normal period mid September but that's still a bit out there.

[aspen]

It’s still possible that 2022 ends up as one of the ten least active Atlantic seasons in terms of ACE, depending on how things progress during the rest of the year. It will need to exceed 38.7 ACE to avoid getting into that bottom 10.

[Iceresistance]

So that the Atlantic Nina may be one of the reasons why this year is so dead, but Joe B is afraid that this may not last long.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1568236298170941442

[Category5Kaiju]

So that the Atlantic Nina may be one of the reasons why this year is so dead, but Joe B is afraid that this may not last long.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1568236298170941442?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

While a poorly understood phenomenon, I genuinely do not think the Atlantic Nina is responsible for this inactivity. Years in the past that had an Atlantic Nina have been active, with a notable example being 2005.

[Iceresistance]

So that the Atlantic Nina may be one of the reasons why this year is so dead, but Joe B is afraid that this may not last long.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1568236298170941442?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

While a poorly understood phenomenon, I genuinely do not think the Atlantic Nina is responsible for this inactivity. Years in the past that had an Atlantic Nina have been active, with a notable example being 2005.

I've also noticed this from Andy Hazelton.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1568224593793486851

[crownweather]

So that the Atlantic Nina may be one of the reasons why this year is so dead, but Joe B is afraid that this may not last long.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1568236298170941442?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

While a poorly understood phenomenon, I genuinely do not think the Atlantic Nina is responsible for this inactivity. Years in the past that had an Atlantic Nina have been active, with a notable example being 2005.

I really think the massive underwater volcano eruption back in January in Tonga may, in part, have to do with the overall weirdness of this hurricane season Worldwide. It's possible that the huge amount of water vapor that the volcano threw up into the atmosphere may have led to (1) more moisture in the atmosphere that (2) created more clouds in the mid and high latitudes that (3) led to the warmer overall temps that you see in the mid latitudes. These warmer temps led to the stability that you are now seeing in the deep tropics.

This is just a theory and I am going to be extremely fascinated to read all of the studies done on what happened this hurricane season.

[LarryWx]

Check out the latest SAL maps as it is totally dominating the MDR! I don't recall it being this dominant anytime recently at least.

[LarryWx]

Just looking at Danielle and Earl, alone, per the NHC progs and extending further out, ACE for just about every day through Sept 12 is likely to be above normal at least through then meaning at or above normal ACE days through a good portion of peak season. And this doesn't include any other TC that may develop. If Earl becomes a major (now forecasted), it alone will generate 4+ per day for those days, which would be at a minimum 160% of the highest ACE average for any day for 1991-2020, which is 2.5 (Sept 15th).

Per 1991-2020 averages, Sep 1-15 average ACE is 33. 2022 could easily end up 40+ for Sep 1-15. That would be quite an impressive turnaround. If Earl were to become a major on 9/8 and remain that way for several days, a 50+ ACE for Sep 1-15 would not just be a remote possibility, especially considering what else may be out there. I'm still at 120 ACE for this season and 6 NS this month.

Danielle has produced 6.6 units of ACE. Its current forecast would generate another ~6 units.

Earl has 1.8 units and current forecast yields anywhere from 6-10 units. After 120H it may be transitioning extratropical in very high latitude. So guessing ~15-20 units, more if it gets significantly stronger than current forecast.

Danielle generated 12.5 units total.

Earl has 10.4 units and with current forecast could possibly yield 5-8 additional units.

In total ~27-30 units for the start of September. A definite jump from August at peak but will need additional activity to recover to normal. Models currently suggest a below normal period mid September but that's still a bit out there.

Nice post! Indeed, although ACE has been impressive for Sep 1-9, it looks to drop off to zero 9/11-15 and thus near 30 looks to be the max for 9/1-15, barely under the normal of 33. So, what had been looking to me like an excellent shot at 40+ won't happen. Fail for my prediction.

[NotSparta]

It’s still possible that 2022 ends up as one of the ten least active Atlantic seasons in terms of ACE, depending on how things progress during the rest of the year. It will need to exceed 38.7 ACE to avoid getting into that bottom 10.

Seems like near 0 chance for bottom ten if there's only 10 more ACE needed to not be on the list