Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

[MHC Tracking]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1567974996181409792

Earl was probably the last one IMO. Wouldn't be shocked if we end the season right here with Earl at this point. I'm really beginning to doubt that activity picks up in October because this whole year has been a "oh wait until......." I think I would be fooling myself to think that anything significant is going to happen going forward, I'm tracking Earl as if its the last

It's September 8th. Earl is not going to be the last storm, and very likely won't be the last hurricane either. We don't know yet what the October Caribbean/GoM season will be like yet.

The VP composite for October looks unfavorable. With more recurving typhoons likely in the WPAC this month, I can't really see a scenario where there isn't a massive TUTT parked in the carib in October. I don't expect much from that part of this season.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1567974996181409792

Earl was probably the last one IMO. Wouldn't be shocked if we end the season right here with Earl at this point. I'm really beginning to doubt that activity picks up in October because this whole year has been a "oh wait until......." I think I would be fooling myself to think that anything significant is going to happen going forward, I'm tracking Earl as if its the last

I'm going to have to disagree with you here, at least politely. Having a season end like this with just 5 NSs imho is rather unlikely and imho a bit too bearish, and while yes there's much talk about it being unfavorable, we still do not have any idea what late this month or October will bring. With all of that warm, untapped water in the W. Atlantic, my superficial guess is that when the basin shifts toward that zone based on climatology, we could still theoretically have a chance of getting something rather significant (I'm assuming all of that mid-level dry air or whatever is not really going to be as bad of a detriment as autumn arrives and as activity shifts there).

[Teban54]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1567974996181409792

Earl was probably the last one IMO. Wouldn't be shocked if we end the season right here with Earl at this point. I'm really beginning to doubt that activity picks up in October because this whole year has been a "oh wait until......." I think I would be fooling myself to think that anything significant is going to happen going forward, I'm tracking Earl as if its the last

I'm going to have to disagree with you here, at least politely. Having a season end like this with just 5 NSs imho is rather unlikely and imho a bit too bearish, and while yes there's much talk about it being unfavorable, we still do not have any idea what late this month or October will bring. With all of that warm, untapped water in the W. Atlantic, my superficial guess is that when the basin shifts toward that zone based on climatology, we could still theoretically have a chance of getting something rather significant (I'm assuming all of that mid-level dry air or whatever is not really going to be as bad of a detriment as autumn arrives and as activity shifts there).

Not necessarily disagreeing with you, more of a question:

The Caribbean has been really quiet this season though. Is it because of hostile conditions, or it just happened that very few waves entered the region? If it's the former, are there any signs of change towards October?

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1567974996181409792

Earl was probably the last one IMO. Wouldn't be shocked if we end the season right here with Earl at this point. I'm really beginning to doubt that activity picks up in October because this whole year has been a "oh wait until......." I think I would be fooling myself to think that anything significant is going to happen going forward, I'm tracking Earl as if its the last

I'm going to have to disagree with you here, at least politely. Having a season end like this with just 5 NSs imho is rather unlikely and imho a bit too bearish, and while yes there's much talk about it being unfavorable, we still do not have any idea what late this month or October will bring. With all of that warm, untapped water in the W. Atlantic, my superficial guess is that when the basin shifts toward that zone based on climatology, we could still theoretically have a chance of getting something rather significant (I'm assuming all of that mid-level dry air or whatever is not really going to be as bad of a detriment as autumn arrives and as activity shifts there).

Not necessarily disagreeing with you, more of a question:

The Caribbean has been really quiet this season though. Is it because of hostile conditions, or it just happened that very few waves entered the region? If it's the former, are there any signs of change towards October?

Not 100% sure as to why, but October is typically when Central American Gyres can spawn storms, and even a weak tropical wave that enters the region could really be a catalyst for something to form. I'm quite wary of October CAGs as while not a majority, there have certainly been some examples of storms that occurred thanks to this phenomenon that really blew up (notable recent example being Michael).

Even then, several events in the past, ranging from the 1910 Cuba hurricane to the 1921 Tampa hurricane to the 1924 Cuba hurricane and to more recent storms like Mitch and Wilma are reminders that October by no means should be dismissed as a safe month for land impacts. I typically like to err on the side of caution.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Anybody else getting an el Nino vibe to this season?

Feels like 1997, without the active July - which is strange considering the polar opposite setup in the ENSO regions. I guess the anomalous northern NATL just acts like a Nino on the basin

The thing about that though is it was the anticyclonic wave breaking that's helped raise the temperatures to record levels in the northern Atlantic but we still don't know 'why' it's happening. There's definitely other systems in place right now that we don't see the whole picture of contributing to this. Because as things go there shouldn't be much to impede development but yet it exists. It's really fascinating and what makes it even more interesting is the fact this is a third year la nina part of the same la nina that was responsible for 2020 and 2021 which were 2 of the top 3 most active seasons on record

[TheDreamTraveler]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1567974996181409792

Earl was probably the last one IMO. Wouldn't be shocked if we end the season right here with Earl at this point. I'm really beginning to doubt that activity picks up in October because this whole year has been a "oh wait until......." I think I would be fooling myself to think that anything significant is going to happen going forward, I'm tracking Earl as if its the last

I'm going to have to disagree with you here, at least politely. Having a season end like this with just 5 NSs imho is rather unlikely and imho a bit too bearish, and while yes there's much talk about it being unfavorable, we still do not have any idea what late this month or October will bring. With all of that warm, untapped water in the W. Atlantic, my superficial guess is that when the basin shifts toward that zone based on climatology, we could still theoretically have a chance of getting something rather significant (I'm assuming all of that mid-level dry air or whatever is not really going to be as bad of a detriment as autumn arrives and as activity shifts there).

Look at inactive phases of the atlantic. 5 named storms is not unlikely at all when given the correct conditions to inhibit development. But we're in an active period since 1995 so the chances of that are very slim since quiet years are less common during active phases. Honestly the basin looks like what you would see during inactive phases like the ones between 1971-1994 and 1901-1930. Normally these active and inactive phases last 20-30 years and the current one has been going on for 27 years now. I'm not sure if that's where we're going into a new inactive phase but I remember the switch from the inactive to active phase happened within one season when the 1995 season happened. These switches happen fast. I'm not saying we're entering an inactive phase but we're definitely close to when this active one should end

[CyclonicFury]

I don't think one season (that isn't over by the way) is really enough to suggest the active era is over. Look at 2013-15. The Atlantic had a very active stretch before that, and followed up with 6 straight 130+ ACE seasons from 2016-2021. That stretch featured a season with 224 ACE (2017) and the most active season on record in named storms (2020). One theory I have heard mentioned here before is that too long without an El Niño can lead to a decrease in stability over the deep tropics, and we haven't had a legitimate El Niño that suppressed the Atlantic since 2015-16. Third year -ENSO seasons have historically been less active than first and second year -ENSO seasons. There are also anomalous seasons that underperform - 2007 is an example, aside from the two Category 5 hurricanes that season was practically dead.

I think the season after the next legit El Niño, the Atlantic could return to hyperactivity.

[Category5Kaiju]

I don't think one season (that isn't over by the way) is really enough to suggest the active era is over. Look at 2013-15. The Atlantic had a very active stretch before that, and followed up with 6 straight 130+ ACE seasons from 2016-2021. That stretch featured a season with 224 ACE (2017) and the most active season on record in named storms (2020). One theory I have heard mentioned here before is that too long without an El Niño can lead to a decrease in stability over the deep tropics, and we haven't had a legitimate El Niño that suppressed the Atlantic since 2015-16. Third year -ENSO seasons have historically been less active than first and second year -ENSO seasons. There are also anomalous seasons that underperform - 2007 is an example, aside from the two Category 5 hurricanes that season was practically dead.

I think the season after the next legit El Niño, the Atlantic could return to hyperactivity.

This is why, if you are somebody who would like to track some nice, powerful, high ACE fish storms left and right sooner rather than later, you better pray that 2023 is an El Nino year.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I don't think one season (that isn't over by the way) is really enough to suggest the active era is over. Look at 2013-15. The Atlantic had a very active stretch before that, and followed up with 6 straight 130+ ACE seasons from 2016-2021. That stretch featured a season with 224 ACE (2017) and the most active season on record in named storms (2020). One theory I have heard mentioned here before is that too long without an El Niño can lead to a decrease in stability over the deep tropics, and we haven't had a legitimate El Niño that suppressed the Atlantic since 2015-16. Third year -ENSO seasons have historically been less active than first and second year -ENSO seasons. There are also anomalous seasons that underperform - 2007 is an example, aside from the two Category 5 hurricanes that season was practically dead.

I think the season after the next legit El Niño, the Atlantic could return to hyperactivity.

The active era isn't over but it's definitely approaching once the AMO switches over to its cool phase, and those changes are very abrupt when they do happen. Also a La Nina season not producing a single named storm in August is actually unprecedented in any record keeping for the Atlantic ever. In fact there were only ever 4 other years that never had a single named storm in August, none of those occurred during a La Nina with 3 during El Ninos and 1 during Neutral. There's definitely some very funky things going on right now

[CyclonicFury]

Earl becoming a major is starting to look unlikely. It does appear that chances of an above average season are dropping. However, I don't really think that the Atlantic is going to just shut down for the rest of the season. The Atlantic did still find a way to produce two hurricanes in early September. The subtropical Atlantic remains very warm, and I think there's a chance we could see more activity there. As far as the deep tropics, chances of an active CV season are dropping fast, but that doesn't mean we definitely won't manage one CV hurricane before the season ends.

Even though 2016 was a bit more active than what we are seeing now, the deep tropics were very hostile until Matthew formed. 2001 also did not have any hurricanes in the deep tropics until Iris in October. There's still a lot of season left, and it would only take a small window of favorable conditions to change it entirely.

[MarioProtVI]

Earl becoming a major is starting to look unlikely. It does appear that chances of an above average season are dropping. However, I don't really think that the Atlantic is going to just shut down for the rest of the season. The Atlantic did still find a way to produce two hurricanes in early September. The subtropical Atlantic remains very warm, and I think there's a chance we could see more activity there. As far as the deep tropics, chances of an active CV season are dropping fast, but that doesn't mean we definitely won't manage one CV hurricane before the season ends.

Even though 2016 was a bit more active than what we are seeing now, the deep tropics were very hostile until Matthew formed. 2001 also did not have any hurricanes in the deep tropics until Iris in October. There's still a lot of season left, and it would only take a small window of favorable conditions to change it entirely.

Models don’t have anything for the foreseeable future and support for the AOIs are dropping and given the persistent hostile conditions across the basin I do not see anything changing anytime soon. October doesn’t look good either. Think it’s time to throw this season in the trash very soon and wait for 2023.

[sponger]

Time to face the facts! We are looking towards the next two weeks with little chance of major action until the end of September. The simple explanation is that the climate has changed! A major culprit may be the unfolding Grand Solar Minimum. It is allowing drier air from the Arctic to mix into the mid levels of the MDR and allowing strong Tutts to limit potential in the Caribbean well past their August peak.

No, the season is not over, but I believe it will vastly under perform. I am sure we will get some home brew activity in October, but not enough to salvage any forecast involving high activity. I would not fret, we have not seen these conditions in 150 years. We have a lot to learn which is why we come here. The experts are confused because La Nina years are strong signals for the Atlantic and weak for the Pacific. We have the opposite going on and group think and a century and a half of climatology may be of little use for the next few decades.

[WiscoWx02]

Earl becoming a major is starting to look unlikely. It does appear that chances of an above average season are dropping. However, I don't really think that the Atlantic is going to just shut down for the rest of the season. The Atlantic did still find a way to produce two hurricanes in early September. The subtropical Atlantic remains very warm, and I think there's a chance we could see more activity there. As far as the deep tropics, chances of an active CV season are dropping fast, but that doesn't mean we definitely won't manage one CV hurricane before the season ends.

Even though 2016 was a bit more active than what we are seeing now, the deep tropics were very hostile until Matthew formed. 2001 also did not have any hurricanes in the deep tropics until Iris in October. There's still a lot of season left, and it would only take a small window of favorable conditions to change it entirely.

Models don’t have anything for the foreseeable future and support for the AOIs are dropping and given the persistent hostile conditions across the basin I do not see anything changing anytime soon. October doesn’t look good either. Think it’s time to throw this season in the trash very soon and wait for 2023.

Yeah I agree. It what nice to have something to watch and it’d going to be cool watching Earl go subtropical…after that, more likely than not see you guys next year. Yeah there have been seasons in the past that didn’t have strong hurricanes in the deep tropics until October but this isn’t 2001, I think of this year is what 2013 was but without the thermohaline circulation IMO, so we saw stronger storms than in 2013 but the wave breaking and dry mid latitude dry air is a similar issue this year as it was then…that’s just how I look at this year as…either way no matter how you look at it because I know many will disagree with my comparison which I totally don’t mind go ahead , this season is going to go down alongside 2005, 2020 and 2013 as one of the lost bizarre seasons in recent memory.

[CyclonicFury]

Earl becoming a major is starting to look unlikely. It does appear that chances of an above average season are dropping. However, I don't really think that the Atlantic is going to just shut down for the rest of the season. The Atlantic did still find a way to produce two hurricanes in early September. The subtropical Atlantic remains very warm, and I think there's a chance we could see more activity there. As far as the deep tropics, chances of an active CV season are dropping fast, but that doesn't mean we definitely won't manage one CV hurricane before the season ends.

Even though 2016 was a bit more active than what we are seeing now, the deep tropics were very hostile until Matthew formed. 2001 also did not have any hurricanes in the deep tropics until Iris in October. There's still a lot of season left, and it would only take a small window of favorable conditions to change it entirely.

Models don’t have anything for the foreseeable future and support for the AOIs are dropping and given the persistent hostile conditions across the basin I do not see anything changing anytime soon. October doesn’t look good either. Think it’s time to throw this season in the trash very soon and wait for 2023.

Yeah I agree. It what nice to have something to watch and it’d going to be cool watching Earl go subtropical…after that, more likely than not see you guys next year. Yeah there have been seasons in the past that didn’t have strong hurricanes in the deep tropics until October but this isn’t 2001, I think of this year is what 2013 was but without the thermohaline circulation IMO, so we saw stronger storms than in 2013 but the wave breaking and dry mid latitude dry air is a similar issue this year as it was then…that’s just how I look at this year as…either way no matter how you look at it because I know many will disagree with my comparison which I totally don’t mind go ahead , this season is going to go down alongside 2005, 2020 and 2013 as one of the lost bizarre seasons in recent memory.

So you think the rest of the entire season will be completely dead, and Earl will be the last storm in early September? That would be completely unprecedented, and even in the most hostile of seasons I couldn't see that happening.

[Hammy]

I don't think one season (that isn't over by the way) is really enough to suggest the active era is over. Look at 2013-15. The Atlantic had a very active stretch before that, and followed up with 6 straight 130+ ACE seasons from 2016-2021. That stretch featured a season with 224 ACE (2017) and the most active season on record in named storms (2020). One theory I have heard mentioned here before is that too long without an El Niño can lead to a decrease in stability over the deep tropics, and we haven't had a legitimate El Niño that suppressed the Atlantic since 2015-16. Third year -ENSO seasons have historically been less active than first and second year -ENSO seasons. There are also anomalous seasons that underperform - 2007 is an example, aside from the two Category 5 hurricanes that season was practically dead.

I think the season after the next legit El Niño, the Atlantic could return to hyperactivity.

The active era isn't over but it's definitely approaching once the AMO switches over to its cool phase, and those changes are very abrupt when they do happen. Also a La Nina season not producing a single named storm in August is actually unprecedented in any record keeping for the Atlantic ever. In fact there were only ever 4 other years that never had a single named storm in August, none of those occurred during a La Nina with 3 during El Ninos and 1 during Neutral. There's definitely some very funky things going on right now

I do have to wonder if the active season does end up being over, if we'll look back and determine it did in fact start last October--there's was a lot of talk for instance that the active period really began in late 1994, having two tropical storms in September and nothing in October, and then two hurricanes in November

[Ntxw]

August AMO from NOAA was +0.362 which was up from July's +0.140 and is quite positive. That's higher than 2021, so I think any theories of decadal shifts is premature. From all the posts it seems the atmosphere has been relied upon frequently for unfavorable conditions globally.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.data

[WiscoWx02]

I don't think one season (that isn't over by the way) is really enough to suggest the active era is over. Look at 2013-15. The Atlantic had a very active stretch before that, and followed up with 6 straight 130+ ACE seasons from 2016-2021. That stretch featured a season with 224 ACE (2017) and the most active season on record in named storms (2020). One theory I have heard mentioned here before is that too long without an El Niño can lead to a decrease in stability over the deep tropics, and we haven't had a legitimate El Niño that suppressed the Atlantic since 2015-16. Third year -ENSO seasons have historically been less active than first and second year -ENSO seasons. There are also anomalous seasons that underperform - 2007 is an example, aside from the two Category 5 hurricanes that season was practically dead.

I think the season after the next legit El Niño, the Atlantic could return to hyperactivity.

The active era isn't over but it's definitely approaching once the AMO switches over to its cool phase, and those changes are very abrupt when they do happen. Also a La Nina season not producing a single named storm in August is actually unprecedented in any record keeping for the Atlantic ever. In fact there were only ever 4 other years that never had a single named storm in August, none of those occurred during a La Nina with 3 during El Ninos and 1 during Neutral. There's definitely some very funky things going on right now

I do have to wonder if the active season does end up being over, if we'll look back and determine it did in fact start last October--there's was a lot of talk for instance that the active period really began in late 1994, having two tropical storms in September and nothing in October, and then two hurricanes in November

I don’t quite believe that the active period is over, but I do think the issues we are having this year started last October yeah. We need a change in the global pattern IMO. 2022 has just been a plain out boring year, and not just with hurricanes but weather everywhere, even up here in the Great Lakes region. It’s been very quiet. Think we need a mode change just to flush things out and mix it up. I can’t imagine the + AMO will last longer than 10 more years at the most, but like I said, I don’t think it’s over just yet.

[psyclone]

Here we are on the eve of peak season...the flop of the first half has obliterated the high risk time for places like the western gulf but for areas farther east the maximum risk season is just getting underway. I have difficulty believing that we're not going to see a substantial threat evolve at some point..it's a long time until Halloween. With the remainder of this season I guess anything is possible. I must say...here on the 5 year anniversary of Irma it sure is nice not having so much as even a threat so far. As much as it is fun to track storms, a totally stress free first half of the season is nice too.

[TheDreamTraveler]

This actually comes from a thread where he was looking at Atlantic activity during volcanic eruption years. But the Tonga eruption is unprecedented in that it didn't eject much ash into the stratosphere but tons of water vapor, 10% more water vapor than the stratosphere had. That will take 5-10 years to fully dissipate and the NASA study I've mentioned before has said this will effect GLOBAL climate patterns. Extra water vapor would also cause different changes globally than ash would. I really am starting to believe this is a key reason for a lot of the issues occurring right now. The entire northern hemisphere being at 55% ACE of normal is very interesting

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1563190005035520009




 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1563148507086667776

[Category5Kaiju]

This actually comes from a thread where he was looking at Atlantic activity during volcanic eruption years. But the Tonga eruption is unprecedented in that it didn't eject much ash into the stratosphere but tons of water vapor, 10% more water vapor than the stratosphere had. That will take 5-10 years to fully dissipate and the NASA study I've mentioned before has said this will effect GLOBAL climate patterns. Extra water vapor would also cause different changes globally than ash would. I really am starting to believe this is a key reason for a lot of the issues occurring right now. The entire northern hemisphere being at 55% ACE of normal is very interesting

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1563190005035520009

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1563148507086667776

Maybe in an alternate Earth somewhere out there, Hunga Tonga did not erupt, and 2022's Atlantic hurricane season produced 3 Cat 5s in July