Will the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season produce at least one major hurricane?

CyclonicFury · #1 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:51 pm

Mods/admins can you make a poll with yes/no options?

I think we will see at least one major personally.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:59 pm

Made this question as a poll that will close on September 15th at 10:58 PM EDT.

Beef Stew · #3 Postby **Beef Stew** » Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:56 pm

Earl may very well be a major now, or at least is pushing the threshold tonight.

Otherwise, despite everything we’ve seen so far this season, I do think that we will still see a major before it’s all said and done- and if I had to bet, it’ll be a WCar system that finally crosses the finish line in the first part of October.

Ultimately, I wouldn’t be shocked if we didn’t end up with an official major, however. Seeing how the back end of the season screeched to a halt last year, and this year has almost felt like a continuation of that… it’s certainly possible, although not what I’m going with here.

Now for fun… imagine the responses this would’ve received if it had been posted in late-June…

Teban54 · #4 Postby **Teban54** » Fri Sep 09, 2022 11:04 pm

Something to consider: Despite the WPac being ridiculously quiet most of the season, it still managed to produce a beast in Hinnamnor.

I won't be surprised if something similar happens in the Atlantic especially in October, even if there's only one. 2020 didn't have any notable storms in the Caribbean (except "Hurricane" Nana) until things exploded in October, after all.

ElectricStorm · #5 Postby **ElectricStorm** » Fri Sep 09, 2022 11:08 pm

I think we'll see at least one, in fact I'll be shocked if we don't. That being said, I do think my preseason guess of 4 majors is probably highly unlikely at this point.

FireRat · #6 Postby **FireRat** » Sat Sep 10, 2022 12:57 am

I think Earl is already a 3 just by looks right now, but conservative classification may cap this as a high 2. 50/50 odds we do get a major this season IMO

Category5Kaiju · #7 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:02 am

I'm pretty confident that we'll see at least one, with my preliminary guess being something that is able to take advantage of the virtually untapped W. Atlantic later in the season. I think that is probably the characteristic of the Atlantic, at least as of now, that really screams major hurricane potential down the line.