What are your personal NS/H/MH predictions for the rest of the season?

[Category5Kaiju]

It's undoubtedly been a slow and strange year, but I think still that between now and November 30 (December 31 if possibilities of off-season storms count) is quite a bit of time, with the potential that things could change rather quickly (remember, the atmosphere is not static, and we are entering fall; also keep in mind that even a small pocket of favorability could be enough to spur something into action). With that being said, I would like to ask what people think the season will feature based on the standard NS/H/MH statistic between the time after Earl dissipates and December 31. My personal guess is 7/3/2 (including one tropical storm in December that forms at a very high latitude thanks to the ridiculously warm subtropics), ending the season with 12/5/2. One major hurricane late this month or October (Cat 4 or possibly Cat 5), and one major hurricane in November (Cat 3).

[aspen]

I’m thinking a final total of 8/4/1 and 40-60 ACE at the most. With how the Atlantic has been this year, I find it very unlikely that we’ll surpass 10 NS, and I’m skeptical we’ll see a major based on how the deep tropics have been dead and Earl tripped over itself.

[NDG]

I am going to wait at least one more week before I can give it a shot, but most like average activity at best for the rest of the season.

[Blown Away]

9/4/2
I’m anticipating more N Atlantic action well into November with possible December STS, SST’s so warm up there.

[Iceresistance]

9/4/2
I’m anticipating more N Atlantic action well into November with possible December STS, SST’s so warm up there.

I'm not very sure about that part, wind shear is likely going to be crazy because the abnormally warm SST's could help fuel powerful nontropical cyclones (Or bomb cyclones) starting around Mid-October.

[cheezyWXguy]

Definitely revising my numbers down from my original 15/8/4. Thinking 6/3/2 for the rest of the season, for a total of 11/5/2. To be more specific on my unsourced speculation, I think the 3 TS’s and 1 hurricane would be in the subtropics, and the 2 MHs would be in the Caribbean/Gulf. If the WPAC continues to heat up at all, I could see a recurving typhoon or two resulting in downstream troughs deep enough to interact with a Caribbean wave or CAG in late September or October to create those MHs. The blind squirrel GFS is bound to find a nut or two eventually, right?

[Hurricane2022]

Expecting more 7 Tropical Storms, with 5 hurricanes and 3 majors.
Total numbers of 2022 may be 12 / 7 / 3.

[FireRat]

I'm tempted to stick to my guns and say 15/7/4 for the rest of the season... but that's practically impossible at this point. This season looks like one of those when bearishness is going to win, so my best guess now for the rest of the season is this:

6/4/2.

Brings us to a total of 11/6/2. Earl would be one of the majors if he gets upgraded btw.

[ElectricStorm]

Preseason numbers were 19/9/4... obviously not going to happen.

Changing that to 10/5/2, definitely a weird season.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a short burst of activity in late Sept/early Oct but we're far enough into the season to where it's obvious the overall state of the basin is unfavorable.

[Iceresistance]

My Preseason numbers are way too high, I don't know when to lower it yet, but I've already lowered the Named Storms to 12

[skyline385]

My preseason numbers were 22/13/5

Going to go with 10/4/2 now so 5/2/2 for the rest of the season

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My guess at this point is 8/4/0. Might get a hurricane or two in September-October in the subtropics. Earl not becoming a major hurricane surprised me.

Like 2013, this will certainly be a long-studied hurricane season. Will be fascinating to read.

[zal0phus]

I think a total named storm count, at most, of 10/4/1. The sole major hurricane may not even happen at all, but if it does, I think it'll be strong and towards the end of the season, perhaps even the final storm.

[Hammy]

There were a lot of mixed signals so I never made a pre-season prediction but at the moment I'm thinking 9-13 storms total, 5-7 hurricanes, and 0-2 majors. I think at minimum, we'll see at least 1/2/1 for storms for the rest of Sep/Oct/Nov, but expecting 3/4/1 for those months.

[InfernoFlameCat]

8 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.
80 Ace.
This season is shaping up poorly but it still has the rest of September and October to produce some bangers.