Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)

[LarryWx]

Yes, thank you.

You're welcome. Are you able to post the 12Z UKMET 144 map in the Caribbean?

Dont have the link to graphic.

The 12Z UKMET map finally came out. Here it is right at your front door at 144 moving WNW (1007 mb TC):

[skyline385]

You're welcome. Are you able to post the 12Z UKMET 144 map in the Caribbean?

Dont have the link to graphic.

The 12Z UKMET map finally came out. Here it is right at your front door at 144 moving WNW (1007 mb TC):

https://i.imgur.com/V5YWZct.gif

Looks like a pretty compact system




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[Category5Kaiju]

Just a very random observation, but it would be interesting to see if this system follows some of the model guidance and gets named "Fiona." While not talked about as often as the I curse is, there also exists an F curse in Atlantic hurricane season lore. Since names began, there have been 9 F storms that got their names retired, and it is also the only letter to have all 6 original names retired. Not to mention there have been quite some F storms that proved to be very destructive and memorable, such as Flora, Fran, Floyd, Frances, and most recently, Florence. Now I'm not saying that this wave will become some very destructive and dangerous system of course, but it indeed is quite something to see many models all of a sudden get excited about this wave's prospects further west.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1569119552017154050

[cycloneye]

Is a large wave.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z EPS is only a tad less active than the 12Z EPS and much more active than the 0Z/6Z like the 12Z was.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1569136183032303616

[Blown Away]

I can understand why the NHC would be hesitant to tag any AOI in the Atlantic this season, but a bit puzzled why this area is not tagged? Modest convection and some model support. If the trend continues we should see a tag soon??

[Category5Kaiju]

I can understand why the NHC would be hesitant to tag any AOI in the Atlantic this season, but a bit puzzled why this area is not tagged? Modest convection and some model support. If the trend continues we should see a tag soon??

That's what I am thinking; I'm fairly certain that a lemon will pop up sooner rather than later.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z UKMET dropped it again.

[AutoPenalti]

It almost seems like when convection starts to fire, models pick up on it and just run with it. When it dies, it just drops it entirely.

[Landy]

Here we go again...

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave currently located more than 1000 miles east of the
Windward Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is
possible over the next several days as it moves generally westward
to west-northwestward over the central tropical Atlantic through the
end of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Nimbus]

Is a large wave.

https://i.imgur.com/l4obymo.gif

Guidance depends on whether the northern part develops into a TD that follows Earl/95L over colder waters out to sea or the Southern part of the wave forms Fiona.

[wxman57]

It's battling lots of dry air. Check out the 700-400mb RH on Levi's page.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located midway between the west coast of Africa and
the Windward Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system
is possible over the next several days while it moves generally
westward to west-northwestward over the central tropical Atlantic
and approaches the Windward Islands by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[CFLHurricane]

The MMIC-TPW shows a sprawling wave that appears to be getting its act together. We’ll see by Wednesday if this system has a future according to the GFS and ECMWF. Given the potential track I think this is the most interesting wave we’ve had so far.

[cane5]

What percentage of development is the NHC giving it ?

[skyline385]

What percentage of development is the NHC giving it ?

0/20


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[SFLcane]

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1569331659413094401