SFLcane wrote::double:
https://i.postimg.cc/sX2gLhHr/AE4-C416-B-055-A-460-F-B4-C6-917534-C7-BAFC.gif
It has a slight WSW curve.
Just a few days ago, we thought that this season was done and threw in the towel. And now look at this!
Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)
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Iceresistance
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
It has a slight WSW curve.
Just a few days ago, we thought that this season was done and threw in the towel. And now look at this!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
Icon has the islands threat end of 18z run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91218&fh=6
EC had that South Florida threat end of 12z run. CMC has something right off SE FL as well. Everything looks relatively weak in the ocean but I’m sure that system is being discussed in its appropriate thread.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91218&fh=6
EC had that South Florida threat end of 12z run. CMC has something right off SE FL as well. Everything looks relatively weak in the ocean but I’m sure that system is being discussed in its appropriate thread.
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tolakram
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
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M a r k
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
2020: Recurving typhoon becomes our friend
2022: Recurving typhoon becomes....our enemy?
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cycloneye
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
Steve wrote:Icon has the islands threat end of 18z run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91218&fh=6
EC had that South Florida threat end of 12z run. CMC has something right off SE FL as well. Everything looks relatively weak in the ocean but I’m sure that system is being discussed in its appropriate thread.
Hi my friend. To let you know that moved your post from the global models discussion thread to the wave one.
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Tropics Guy
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
Central wave Looking better tonight, development chances will probably go up to orange from lemon soon if the convection continues.
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emeraldislenc
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
Looking much better tonight. Will be interesting to see if it is an orange at 2 am.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
18z EPS quite different than 12z.
Many more members with development, with a more clustered (rather than scattershot) look
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crownweather
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
It would be very 2022 if all of the 00Z & 06Z models dropped the development of this wave.
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Fego
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
crownweather wrote:It would be very 2022 if all of the 00Z & 06Z models dropped the development of this wave.
ICON says not me.
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Go Giants! Go Niners! Go Warriors!
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PTrackerLA
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
crownweather wrote:It would be very 2022 if all of the 00Z & 06Z models dropped the development of this wave.
Likewise I think it would be very 2022 if Fiona became "the threat" of the season after initially being dropped by all models post spalshdown. That's the weird part of this season and current date, anything could still happen the next 6 weeks.
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
Is it just me or does the ICON have this system just plow through a ridge?
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Keldeo1997
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
Worth noting for anyone turning to the GFS for wisdom, it has not been handling anything well as of late. 90h ago it had little to nothing in terms of even wave activity.
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skyline385
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
Hammy wrote:Worth noting for anyone turning to the GFS for wisdom, it has not been handling anything well as of late. 90h ago it had little to nothing in terms of even wave activity.
https://i.imgur.com/cP9ZXFX.png
https://i.imgur.com/qOX8AxE.png
To be fair, both Euro and GFS had nothing on it 90 hours ago, look at the vorticity plots.
Also keep in mind that the GFS was the first to correctly predict Earl's recurve without any weird stalling and kept it weak until it was around 55W, which is pretty much what happened.
Last edited by skyline385 on Mon Sep 12, 2022 11:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
Not sure what the ICON is doing but this recurved sharply away as a Cat 3
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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skyline385
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
AutoPenalti wrote:Not sure what the ICON is doing but this recurved sharply away as a Cat 3
ICON has been showing a Cat 1-3 in the tropics for almost each of its run. Whatever is causing the issues for this season, ICON seems to be the most affected by it. I am pretty sure its going to end up last on intensity verification for 2022 amongst the global models
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