Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)

[skyline385]

0Z CMC has it developing in the Gulf

[Hurricaneman]

This already looks like it’s trying to become a tropical cyclone

[Hammy]

Worth noting for anyone turning to the GFS for wisdom, it has not been handling anything well as of late. 90h ago it had little to nothing in terms of even wave activity.

https://i.imgur.com/cP9ZXFX.png
https://i.imgur.com/qOX8AxE.png

To be fair, both Euro and GFS had nothing on it 90 hours ago, look at the vorticity plots.

Also keep in mind that the GFS was the first to correctly predict Earl's recurve without any weird stalling and kept it weak until it was around 55W, which is pretty much what happened.

Correct, and both have been trending stronger. But I've seen a lot made over the GFS showing nothing treated as a near guarantee that nothing will develop.

I don't think any of the models are worth much track-wise at the moment though, not until we know whether it develops in the first place--intensity will play a key role in that.

[skyline385]

Worth noting for anyone turning to the GFS for wisdom, it has not been handling anything well as of late. 90h ago it had little to nothing in terms of even wave activity.

https://i.imgur.com/cP9ZXFX.png
https://i.imgur.com/qOX8AxE.png

To be fair, both Euro and GFS had nothing on it 90 hours ago, look at the vorticity plots.

Also keep in mind that the GFS was the first to correctly predict Earl's recurve without any weird stalling and kept it weak until it was around 55W, which is pretty much what happened.

Correct, and both have been trending stronger. But I've seen a lot made over the GFS showing nothing treated as a near guarantee that nothing will develop.

I don't think any of the models are worth much track-wise at the moment though, not until we know whether it develops in the first place--intensity will play a key role in that.

No model run should be taken as a near guarantee that something will or will not develop though. Anyways, the potential invest still has a rough track ahead with lots of dry air to the west and ridging bringing it very close to the DR or Cuba. If it hits any of those islands, then combined with the dry air it will probably kill development for the short term future which is what the GFS is doing. If it dodges the islands then we may have something to track on our hands.

[LarryWx]

It would be very 2022 if all of the 00Z & 06Z models dropped the development of this wave.

0Z UKMET says "me". It also dropped it at 0Z yesterday.

[AutoPenalti]

lol UKMET drops it…

[blp]

lol UKMET drops it…

It did not drop it. 00z over the islands.

[Hammy]

It would be very 2022 if all of the 00Z & 06Z models dropped the development of this wave.

0Z UKMET says "me". It also dropped it at 0Z yesterday.

0Z UKMET seems to be the inversion of the 18Z GFS

[LarryWx]

lol UKMET drops it…

It did not drop it. 00z over the islands.

https://i.ibb.co/gDLZrWZ/us-model-en-087-0-modgbr-2022091300-90-5903-149.png

Well, the textual output for the 0Z UKMET no longer shows actual TC genesis for this AEW. The 12Z did. But, yes, I see from the 0Z UKMET the low over the LAs that you just showed, which sure looks like it could be a TD. So, I'm a bit confused, myself. Maybe it isn't quite organized enough to be counted as a TD?? Could that just be a sharp wave? There is only one isobar on the southern side.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro 1001mb north coast of Hispaniola

[AtlanticWind]

Down to 997mb

[LarryWx]

Down to 997mb

Gulf bound? Regardless, it sure is a slow mover once it gets past 65W! Just crawling. This is liable to be a a very long and drawn out one to follow.

[AtlanticWind]

Drifting north at end of run, looks like a trailing trough caught it
Hard to say where it would eventually go.

[LarryWx]

Drifting north at end of run, looks like a trailing trough caught it
Hard to say where it would eventually go.

The least little weakness is often all that's needed as they "like" to go poleward whenever possible. Nevertheless, I was surprised at that right turn at the end. As you implied, there's no telling if that was leading to a complete recurve. we'll know a little more when the 6 hour maps come out.

[REDHurricane]

850mb vort over the past 5 days:


Current shortwave IR satellite view:


Interesting that the NHC hasn't designated this as 96L yet, I'd be surprised if they don't at least do it in this morning's update given the nearly closed lower level circulation and favorable conditions forecast over the next few days by the 00z Euro run. This one definitely looks to have more potential than most of the other AEWs we've seen this year -- right now is where the rubber meets the road for the Atlantic this season, and I think the outcome of this wave's development will give us valuable insight into how the rest of the season is going to go. I've been pretty anti-"the season is cancelled 2013 total bust the Atlantic is broken" so far (and obviously even in the least active of hurricane seasons all it takes is one storm to make significant impacts), but if this wave ends up doing nothing I'm ready to say that the chances of 2022 being even an average season ACE-wise are extremely low. But if this does end up developing into a solid TS or hurricane, it could be a sign that we're dealing with a backloaded La Niña season rather than a "bust" and that 100+ ACE may still certainly be in the cards for the Atlantic. These next few days are going to be fascinating to watch for sure.

[cycloneye]

06z ICON has a slow moving TS in NE Caribbean Islands.

[BobHarlem]

Euro Ensembles seem to be split further down the road. By contrast, the GFS Ensembles have very few members with it.

[BobHarlem]

6Z GFS runs it very fast through the islands and doesn't develop it, but somehow manages to get a major hurricane out of nowhere late in the run over the Florida Keys that then heads to Louisiana.

[Blown Away]

Healthy TW, at least for 2022.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS goes major into GOM...