Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)

[skyline385]

6Z GFS run is very questionable if you look at 850mb vorticity. It pushes the wave initially into the Caribbean then a front yanks it out through Cuba but because of the ridge building in, it gets detached from the front near the keys after which it enters the Gulf.

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[BobHarlem]

https://i.imgur.com/ykHvENP.gif
06z GFS goes major into GOM...

Goes from nothing to cat 3 right over the Keys too 1935 style. Pretty darn sure this won't happen.

[SFLcane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Conventional and Low-earth orbit satellite data indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands have increased and become better organized since yesterday
afternoon. Further development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form over the next several days while it generally moves westward to west-northwestward over the central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Leeward Islands on Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[SFLcane]

Should see an invest sometime today.

[Blown Away]

Katrina 2.0?

[tolakram]

While I don't want to stop fun GFS speculation I don't think anything the GFS has ever predicted past 240 hours has ever come true in all the years I've been watching it. All the better models stop at 240.

The CMC doesn't develop the wave until it gets into the gulf and you can clearly track the vorticity all the way. The GFS vorticity appears out of nowhere.

[toad strangler]

Pretty much it's a waiting period to see what this wave does once it reaches the Lesser Antilles. That's it for me now.

[SFLcane]

While I don't want to stop fun GFS speculation I don't think anything the GFS has ever predicted past 240 hours has ever come true in all the years I've been watching it. All the better models stop at 240.

The CMC doesn't develop the wave until it gets into the gulf and you can clearly track the vorticity all the way. The GFS vorticity appears out of nowhere.

Gfs is nonsense essentially now getting it mixed up with its favorite CAG.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/nDEDtZQ.gif
Katrina 2.0?

Classic spurious GFS genesis. Disregard.

[SoupBone]

https://i.imgur.com/ykHvENP.gif
06z GFS goes major into GOM...

We should definitely believe the GFS after its stellar performance this year.

[cycloneye]

No invest yet but it will be up sometime today. This is the link to see it pop up in the ATCF directory and only link we allow to make a invest thread. The number will be 96L.

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D

[Category5Kaiju]

You gotta wonder if all of that anomalosu warmth in the W. Atlantic could really give this system a boost down the line

[aspen]

I’m still skeptical that this develops, but the increasing short to medium-range model support and further south track than Earl certainly warrants attention. Soon-to-be 96L might be the first direct impact to the islands this year.

[skyline385]

https://i.imgur.com/ykHvENP.gif
06z GFS goes major into GOM...

We should definitely believe the GFS after its stellar performance this year.

Not that we should believe any solution this far out, but the GFS has done pretty decently this season. It had a few Caribbean false flags but it nailed the MDR correctly including Earl's TCG and recurve. Unlike ICON and CMC, it also has not been developing every wave that comes offshore near Africa and it is going to be pretty close between GFS and Euro imo when NHC releases the 2022 verification. The Euro also has had a strong MDR bias and has busted more than a few times this season just like the GFS in the Caribbean. 06Z Euro has also started trending towards the GFS solution of running the wave into the GA.



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1569661557382029317

[cycloneye]

Invest 96L is up.