ATL: FIONA - Models

[chris_fit]

Didn't see a Model Thread for 96L Yet.

Post away.

[AutoPenalti]

FYI, Eps also just about dropped it.

Now that is hilarious. Still some members though.

[BobHarlem]

FYI, Eps also just about dropped it.

Now that is hilarious. Still some members though.

https://i.imgur.com/gxmmZme.gif

The white background frame is yesterdays 6z, but I'd imagine today's will look similar though.

[chris_fit]

00Z CMC


00Z ECMF


06Z GFS

[Spacecoast]

0z ECMF: Stronger members north, weaker west. Operational looks to strengthen E of Bahamas...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1569706875339390976

[LarryWx]

12Z ICON is a little further south than recent runs with it just south of PR at 114 hours and at 1003 mb (a bit weaker than recent runs). Also, whereas the 6Z EPS is still pretty active with this, it isn't as active as the 3 prior runs.

[Blown Away]

12Z ICON is a little further south than recent runs with it just south of PR at 114 hours and at 1003 mb (a bit weaker than recent runs). Also, whereas the 6Z EPS is still pretty active with this, it isn't as active as the 3 prior runs.

12z ICON

[skyline385]

12Z ICON looks like it’s going to get trapped by the building ridge at the end of the run.


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[chris_fit]

Pretty much nadda on the 12Z GFS @ 120 hours

[SFLcane]

Pretty much nadda on the 12Z GFS @ 120 hours

This is wave is a big ole nada. 12z guidance will probably drop everything.

[BobHarlem]

The 12Z GFS and 12Z Canadian, so far, are plowing it through the Greater Antilles (including Cuba). Probably not good for Flooding on some these islands.

[chris_fit]

12Z CMC
Crashes into The Shredder

[skyline385]

It looks like the GFS was again the first to forecast the track into which all the models eventually caved in.


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[tolakram]

This is why I prefer vorticity plots for developing systems. Follow the vorticity signal to see what a model is thinking. GFS takes it south or partially over Hispaniola and then south of Cuba.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET ceased tracking 96L after one plot.

[AutoPenalti]

This is why I prefer vorticity plots for developing systems. Follow the vorticity signal to see what a model is thinking. GFS takes it south or partially over Hispaniola and then south of Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/JnGQ0gn.gif

But look at the EPAC, it just wants to develop anything with a ball in it.

[chris_fit]

CMC Is biting once it gets in the Extreme E Gulf - Riding FLs West Coast

[BobHarlem]

Canadian / CMC GEM gets it into the Gulf after Cuba... Which it did on 0z, but in the earlier run it never went into Cuba.

[tolakram]

This is why I prefer vorticity plots for developing systems. Follow the vorticity signal to see what a model is thinking. GFS takes it south or partially over Hispaniola and then south of Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/JnGQ0gn.gif

But look at the EPAC, it just wants to develop anything with a ball in it.

Not sure I follow. I'm talking about this wave only, the EPAC and gyre problem the GFS has isn't something new, nor is the issue with developing instant hurricanes from the tail end of fronts. GFS under 192 hours, really under 5 days, isn't the worst model.