ATL: FIONA - Models

[tolakram]

CMC

[Bhuggs]

It looks like the GFS was again the first to forecast the track into which all the models eventually caved in.


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All the models eventually caved in? Dude, it’s been like 2 days of this even showing up in the models and you are taking like we have an established tropical storm and models have dropped it completely. Interaction with the GA is not a given with their relative size. Can we at least track something without having to scroll through 6 posts of “told you so nothing is gonna develop” posts after two models run?

[SouthFLTropics]

I'd be curious what the CMC would have done with it had it not had the land interaction. If it gets north of the islands we may have a player. I agree with Tolakram... During the development stages follow the vort. On the GFS you can see the vort pass through the big islands and end up south of Cuba.

[BobHarlem]

I'd be curious what the CMC would have done with it had it not had the land interaction. If it gets north of the islands we may have a player. I agree with Tolakram... During the development stages follow the vort. On the GFS you can see the vort pass through the big islands and end up south of Cuba.

The 0z run went through HIspaniola, but not Cuba, and it wound up weaker on that run then the 12z currently, where it gets near cat 3 and heading generally toward Texas at last frame, and that's with going over Cuba.

Final CMC Frame from 12z:

[SouthFLTropics]

Not sure that the late stages of the CMC run are reasonable given the time of year. The Western GOM and Texas are typically closed for business by the latter part of September.

[sma10]

I'd be curious what the CMC would have done with it had it not had the land interaction. If it gets north of the islands we may have a player. I agree with Tolakram... During the development stages follow the vort. On the GFS you can see the vort pass through the big islands and end up south of Cuba.

The 0z run went through HIspaniola, but not Cuba, and it wound up weaker on that run then the 12z currently, where it gets near cat 3 and heading generally toward Texas at last frame, and that's with going over Cuba.

Final CMC Frame from 12z:
https://i.imgur.com/zXYJq7R.png

By nature, these are tricky, but this one looks trickier than most. Models don't agree too much in the short term, but it's really looking like some mix between this wave and energy from the W Carib could produce some massive blow up next week. Not sure if it ends up as a Bahama problem or (more likely) a Gulf problem, but the signal is for a pretty favorable strengthening environment

[AutoPenalti]

This is why I prefer vorticity plots for developing systems. Follow the vorticity signal to see what a model is thinking. GFS takes it south or partially over Hispaniola and then south of Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/JnGQ0gn.gif

But look at the EPAC, it just wants to develop anything with a ball in it.

Not sure I follow. I'm talking about this wave only, the EPAC and gyre problem the GFS has isn't something new, nor is the issue with developing instant hurricanes from the tail end of fronts. GFS under 192 hours, really under 5 days, isn't the worst model.

What I mean is that it likely has downstream implications to development in the Caribbean side.

[BobHarlem]

6z EFS euro ensembles

[skyline385]

It looks like the GFS was again the first to forecast the track into which all the models eventually caved in.


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All the models eventually caved in? Dude, it’s been like 2 days of this even showing up in the models and you are taking like we have an established tropical storm and models have dropped it completely. Interaction with the GA is not a given with their relative size. Can we at least track something without having to scroll through 6 posts of “told you so nothing is gonna develop” posts after two models run?

I think you are getting my post completely wrong. Nowhere did I imply that there is not going to be a storm or that this path is set in stone. It is too early to say much regarding its path until we have an actual center. I was literally pointing out the fact that the GFS was the first one to get the current forecasted path correctly as seen by other models adjusting themselves to it.


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[BobHarlem]

12z GFS never develops it very similar to 6z, although it spits out something similar to the 6z run toward the end northeast of the Bahamas, but moves that out to sea this time.

[skyline385]

ICON finally loaded fully on weathermodels, there’s the ridge building in which is what the CMC is very likely also seeing.




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[DorkyMcDorkface]

12z GFS never develops it very similar to 6z, although it spits out something similar to the 6z run toward the end northeast of the Bahamas, but moves that out to sea this time.

[LarryWx]

12z Euro looks to be taking a little bit further SW track based on 96 hours, when the very weak low center is 200 miles south of PR.

[wxman22]

Not sure that the late stages of the CMC run are reasonable given the time of year. The Western GOM and Texas are typically closed for business by the latter part of September.

That's not really true, storms in late September are not rare here.Usually our season ends by the first week of October.Even though several storms have affected the western gulf in October also.The most recent one being Hurricane Delta.

[aspen]

Looks like the models want this to be another Laura/Elsa/Fred/Grace in terms of track. Yet another way TCG could go wrong this year.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro is much different from the overnight 00z. Not much to see here so far.

[LarryWx]

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/yfYBy3n.png

Slight difference from 00z, gets tangled in Hispaniola which will keep it as a TW and likely farther W.

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/yfYBy3n.png

Slight difference from 00z, gets tangled in Hispaniola which will keep it as a TW and likely farther W.

The overall model consensus trend seems to be further SW. Gulf chances for 96L increasing imho.

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/yfYBy3n.png

Slight difference from 00z, gets tangled in Hispaniola which will keep it as a TW and likely farther W.

The overall model consensus trend seems to be further SW. Gulf chances for 96L increasing imho.

At 192 the ECMWF has 96L moving NW just N of E Cuba. Yes more involvement with the GA's will likely keep a weaker/shallow TW more W, but any deepening it's going N just like everything this season. JMHO