ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1569707438256816128




 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1569706875339390976

[Nimbus]

Looks like the center of circulation closed off about 15N and no rapid intensification expected.
Be interesting to see what the models do initialized with a TD at that latitude tonight.
The highest resolution tools are still down but the GOES "Veggie" channel is enough to get the general idea.

[cycloneye]

The NRL images are working so here is the latest view and is not impressive.

[InfernoFlameCat]

convection is refiring over 96L. Its looking better.

[Nimbus]

convection is refiring over 96L. Its looking better.

Dry low level circulation has been evident all day so its no surprise we get another puff of convection tonight.
Could even defy the models and make it to TS northeast of Puerto Rico unless there is something the models are seeing in the shear forecast.

[cycloneye]

[Jr0d]

Looks like this thread will explode when the "cone" makes it to Florida.

Obviously way too early to know what the SE CONUS threat will be late next week but certainly something we have to watch.

I do think at the very least the cone or "tomato" will eventually be over Florida..which will result in 20 million people+++ to start paying attention.

[wxman57]

Appears to be mainly a rain threat for the islands of the NE Caribbean Fri-Sun. Won't matter if it's called a TD or a disturbance, the threat is heavy rain. Lots of model divergence beyond the next 2-3 days. GFS indicates it is moving right into the southern edge of a strong TUTT. There's a fine line between good ventilation and wind shear. 300-700mb moisture is strung out to the east of the weak low in both the GFS & Euro this weekend, indicating shear.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just something to keep in mind, especially when tracking these open ocean invests (the mood cycles between the top and bottom too)

[AutoPenalti]

Not surprised if convection is building with DMIN approaching.

[cycloneye]

AL, 96, 2022091400, , BEST, 0, 155N, 466W, 25, 1010, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal962022.dat

[AnnularCane]

https://i.imgur.com/EMdepJ1.png

Just something to keep in mind, especially when tracking these open ocean invests (the mood cycles between the top and bottom too)

The mood of the forum undulates along with the convection.

[Wampadawg]

https://i.imgur.com/EMdepJ1.png

Just something to keep in mind, especially when tracking these open ocean invests (the mood cycles between the top and bottom too)

The mood of the forum undulates along with the convection.

No kidding

[SFLcane]

Um….

[bahamaswx]

Looking good tonight.

[SouthDadeFish]

Always so hard to tell what's going on under the convection with these disturbances, especially at night, but it sure does look good on IR right now. I think the surface vorticity is maximized just on SW edge of the cirrus around 16 N and 47 W, but it's possible sustained convection could help tighten up a surface circulation. That hasn't been 2022's specialty so far though...

[cycloneye]

A few hours ago, I posted a image that was not impressive, but a few hours later boom, the classic s.

[AutoPenalti]

Lets see if it can sustain that convection tonight.

[BobHarlem]

Lets see if it can sustain that convection tonight.

If this year hasn't put everyone in the doubters club I'd be surprised. Safe bet this year seems to be it won't, or at least will go back to junk around dmin.

[skyline385]

https://i.imgur.com/EMdepJ1.png

Just something to keep in mind, especially when tracking these open ocean invests (the mood cycles between the top and bottom too)

The mood of the forum undulates along with the convection.

Applies to wxtwitter as well

 https://twitter.com/wxpatel/status/1569865304808751104





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