ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

Cherry Pie anyone?

[AutoPenalti]

Can’t ignore face that it’s trying… I’ll give it that.

[Blown Away]

Code Red.

[jlauderdal]

Cherry Pie anyone?

You got your cherry pie, now the question is do we eat the cherry pie in SEFL. NHC going with development and the way things have been going this year, that's a big deal in itself. I saw that Korean model output in the models thread and my heart rate went up

[SFLcane]

Cherry Pie anyone?

You got your cherry pie, now the question is do we eat the cherry pie in SEFL. NHC going with development and the way things have been going this year, that's a big deal in itself. I saw that Korean model output in the models thread and my heart rate went up

Right now there is no concern for SFL other then the chance of lower humidity and the first taste of fall. Korean model is garbage

[AutoPenalti]

Other than the CMC and Korean model (didn’t even know that was a thing) no threats to SEFL at the moment.

[tolakram]

I'm going to go out on a pretty strong and fat limb and say SE FL will not see a threat until just a few days before it happens. The idea that that area of Florida can get a reliable 5+ day prediction of a hit is just not going to happen with the prediction tools we have today.

Looking really good at the moment. SLIDER visible https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=16105.4072265625&y=7402.62744140625&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[SFLcane]

Starting to think this going into the Caribbean before potentially turning north.

[jlauderdal]

Starting to think this going into the Caribbean before potentially turning north.

it seems to be overachieving, Are you sure a stronger storm makes it into the carib?

[wxman57]

That convection appears to be associated with a mid-level rotation, just like the last system. Westerly shear across it. Low level center, if there is one, would be west of the convection.

[Emmett_Brown]

Just eyeballing the vis, it looks to me like the center is 16.5N, 49.2W

[SFLcane]

Starting to think this going into the Caribbean before potentially turning north.

it seems to be overachieving, Are you sure a stronger storm makes it into the carib?

Overachieving? Maybe but probably not cant be fooled with convection. What’s under the hood is still a big question.

[skyline385]

Starting to think this going into the Caribbean before potentially turning north.

it seems to be overachieving, Are you sure a stronger storm makes it into the carib?

There is a ridge building up above it so a stronger storm may still end up in the Caribbean

[cycloneye]

AL, 96, 2022091412, , BEST, 0, 164N, 491W, 30, 1009, LO

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal962022.dat

[wxman57]

HY-2B pass a few hours ago indicates a trof axis. https://scatterometer.knmi.nl/hy2b_25_prod/index.php?cmd=showimage&ascending=no&day=0&flag=yes&coord.x=199&coord.y=175

[LarryWx]

The LLC, whether surface or not, appears to be on the left edge of the convection as has been the case for hours.

[Blown Away]

The LLC, whether surface or not, appears to be on the left edge of the convection as has been the case for hours.

[jlauderdal]

Starting to think this going into the Caribbean before potentially turning north.

it seems to be overachieving, Are you sure a stronger storm makes it into the carib?

There is a ridge building up above it so a stronger storm may still end up in the Caribbean

https://i.imgur.com/i0g3dzV.png

On the GFS there is a ridge, the euro says bye-bye to the ridge and the system heads towards the NNE. Very interesting setup with a fork in the road around the shredder. Let the arguments, conjecture and in some cases, pure fantasy proceed.

[toad strangler]

Well, this one is at least has some decent twist to it #2022

[aspen]

96L is much better today than this time yesterday. 24 hours ago, convection was waning, and it wouldn’t recover until after sunset. Now the system continues to pop out hot towers and is trying to cover its forming LLC, despite the tilted vortex. Its improved convective activity will probably get this to TD intensity sometime today, barring any sudden dry air entrainments.