ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

1st official forecast takes it over Hispaniola and keeps it just (barely) south of Puerto Rico. But all of it and the USVI is in the cone.

[SFLcane]

In 2022 you can't even barely squeeze out a strong TS even at the height of the season.

[toad strangler]

In 2022 you can't even barely squeeze out a strong TS even at the height of the season.

It's September 14th, not December 14th.

[SFLcane]

In 2022 you can't even barely squeeze out a strong TS even at the height of the season.

It's September 14th, not December 14th.

Sure?

[tolakram]

[InfernoFlameCat]

I remember a similar storm that wasn't really expected to form. When it did, it was expected to remain weak as it got swallowed up by the Greater anthills. That storm was Dorian.

[skyline385]

I remember a similar storm that wasn't really expected to form. When it did, it was expected to remain weak as it got swallowed up by the Greater anthills. That storm was Dorian.

And there have also been tons of storms besides Dorian which weakened on passing through GA.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FireRat]

Hopefully this doesn't pull a Georges, looking quite impressive this morning!

[Iceresistance]

Well, guess there will be an Atlantic TC on my Birthday tomorrow!

[boca]

Hopefully this doesn't pull a Georges, looking quite impressive this morning!

Most likely it will pull an Earl that pattern is too progressive without pulling it north and out.

[underthwx]

Well, guess there will be an Atlantic TC on my Birthday tomorrow!

Happy Birthday Ice...

[wxman57]

I remember a similar storm that wasn't really expected to form. When it did, it was expected to remain weak as it got swallowed up by the Greater anthills. That storm was Dorian.

This isn't Dorian. I think it could become a hurricane NE of the Bahamas in 8 days or so. Until it passes the NE Caribbean, it's fighting shear and dry air. I think the NHC jumped the gun on calling it a TD, and I think they're developing it into a TS too quickly. Shear and dry air will continue to impact it for 3-4 days.

[Jr0d]

A bit surprised the NHC upgraded already however it meets the criteria for a depression.

Going to be interesting Friday whe Florida will likely be in the cone of certainty. Not going to be worried about it until it passes Hispaniola.

I still think a north turn is most likely and I give NC a higher chance than Florida fir impacts from the storm. This is just a guess and not based on any science.

[AnnularCane]

I remember a similar storm that wasn't really expected to form. When it did, it was expected to remain weak as it got swallowed up by the Greater anthills. That storm was Dorian.

I didn't know anthills were such a danger to a tropical system. (Sorry! )

Of course...I'm guessing all this assumes she travels along the black line for the next 5 days and doesn't deviate?

[sma10]

Probably need to pump the breaks for just a day or two.

First, this is not "Earl 2.0" - Earl never made it into the NE Caribbean and interacted with the large islands, so there is that particular uncertainty.
Second, the recurve models are showing the north movement in the 6+ day period after interaction with Hispaniola. TD 7 could easily do what a lot of systems in this area have done in the past, which is trend towards the southernmost part of the cone

[skyline385]

I remember a similar storm that wasn't really expected to form. When it did, it was expected to remain weak as it got swallowed up by the Greater anthills. That storm was Dorian.

This isn't Dorian. I think it could become a hurricane NE of the Bahamas in 8 days or so. Until it passes the NE Caribbean, it's fighting shear and dry air. I think the NHC jumped the gun on calling it a TD, and I think they're developing it into a TS too quickly. Shear and dry air will continue to impact it for 3-4 days.

Yea was surprised by the TD announcement too. We haven’t had any ASCAT pass or recon which suggested the upgrade, guess they did it because it’s close to PR and we have had constant convection since yesterday?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Kingarabian]

I remember a similar storm that wasn't really expected to form. When it did, it was expected to remain weak as it got swallowed up by the Greater anthills. That storm was Dorian.

This isn't Dorian. I think it could become a hurricane NE of the Bahamas in 8 days or so. Until it passes the NE Caribbean, it's fighting shear and dry air. I think the NHC jumped the gun on calling it a TD, and I think they're developing it into a TS too quickly. Shear and dry air will continue to impact it for 3-4 days.

Well Dorian wasn't Dorian until it was Dorian.

But yeah this season dry shear has ruled this region. We'll see if it can avoid a similar fate.

[Kingarabian]

Probably need to pump the breaks for just a day or two.

First, this is not "Earl 2.0" - Earl never made it into the NE Caribbean and interacted with the large islands, so there is that particular uncertainty.
Second, the recurve models are showing the north movement in the 6+ day period after interaction with Hispaniola. TD 7 could easily do what a lot of systems in this area have done in the past, which is trend towards the southernmost part of the cone

Agreed. Considering recent seasons and their storm tracks, IMO this could end up anywhere from the TX coast to a clean recurve.

[tomatkins]

I remember a similar storm that wasn't really expected to form. When it did, it was expected to remain weak as it got swallowed up by the Greater anthills. That storm was Dorian.

Those must be some pretty big ants.

[Iceresistance]

I remember a similar storm that wasn't really expected to form. When it did, it was expected to remain weak as it got swallowed up by the Greater anthills. That storm was Dorian.

This isn't Dorian. I think it could become a hurricane NE of the Bahamas in 8 days or so. Until it passes the NE Caribbean, it's fighting shear and dry air. I think the NHC jumped the gun on calling it a TD, and I think they're developing it into a TS too quickly. Shear and dry air will continue to impact it for 3-4 days.

Yea was surprised by the TD announcement too. We haven’t had any ASCAT pass or recon which suggested the upgrade, guess they did it because it’s close to PR and we have had constant convection since yesterday?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There was one that clipped the eastern end and found several 30 knot barbs.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/TD-7-ASCAT.png

It's theoretically possible that we may have a TS (Next name is Fiona) when the next ASCAT makes a direct hit when the system is looking like this or still improving.