caneman wrote:toad strangler wrote:caneman wrote:
There is no safe call to make right now. It's too far out and some models have shifted West. Some taking it just South of the islands. Some keep it weaker and further West. There is no super highway OTS from just below the islands. And each storm and set up and timing is completely unique. I don't care if 90% of storms go out to sea. You don't know which will be the 10%.
It's less than 10% and you changed the context of my post. I was speaking of the spot Fiona was at THAT moment. Not from underneath the GA's. There is absolutely a climatological re-curve favored track east of the CONUS from that genearl area I was talking about. I see the 6z GFS does just that. Although in rather interesting fashion. We shall see!
I didn't change the context, you can't make an assumption from that point as OTS and as a "safe call". You also cant weight post analysis with current analysis especially when current analysis showed there is still a wide model spread over a long range. Sure, do 90% or a larger portion in that area go OTS YES but you never know when the 10% of so won't. This may well be that one. We don't know yet and even more models this morning go further West now. I don't trust any modeling outside of 120 hours.
He was calling OTS the "safest" call as opposed to the "safe" call. Calling for a hit is certainly not a "safe" call either as that's a less safe call than calling for OTS based on historical tracks. He knows there's no "safe" call. He's saying the best odds by a good margin are OTS. Maybe better wording would be calling it "highest odds" rather than "safest".
Personally, I'm not at all even discounting the possibility of a move into the Gulf and I bet he'd say the same. I don't think the Gulf is even that low of a possibility.
