ATL: FIONA - Models

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF... Full run.

[SouthFLTropics]

This run just goes to show how complicated the Greater Antilles makes this forecast. A degree or two left or right makes all the difference in the world. From a strong storm turning out to sea to a disorganized system developing further west due to disruption from the islands.


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[ronjon]

Still 9 days out so likely not to verify but obviously huge difference between CMC/Euro and GFS at this point.

[chaser1]

What, you guys kidding lol? At 10 days out I'd say the safest place in the world to be would probably be between Deerfield Beach and Stuart
If GFS follows suit, then I'll even double-down on that. In fact I'll go right Online and book myself a cruise out of Ft. Lauderdale the moment I see ICON jumping on board.

[sma10]

Still 9 days out so likely not to verify but obviously huge difference between CMC/Euro and GFS at this point.

Exactly. Same rules apply whether the 9 day forecast shows a harmless recurve or a major landfall: it's too early and much can change.

I think what this does do though is opens up a cornucopia of options if Fiona stays weak thru day 5.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro SW of the ensembles so likely it will go back and forth.

[NDG]

Just like when Earl, if Fiona stays weak longer and or a track over Hispaniola a more westward track, a stronger Fiona which avoids Hispaniola like the GFS shows it will feel the short waves passing over the NE US.
Given how well the GFS did with Earl in almost this same set up I am leaning more towards the GFS despite the GFS failing miserable with Fiona's cyclogenesis.
But since we are talking past 120 hrs anything is still possible, the Euro and CMC could still be right.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1570493450050752512

[chaser1]

Still 9 days out so likely not to verify but obviously huge difference between CMC/Euro and GFS at this point.

Exactly. Same rules apply whether the 9 day forecast shows a harmless recurve or a major landfall: it's too early and much can change.

I think what this does do though is opens up a cornucopia of options if Fiona stays weak thru day 5.

I think we'll begin to see far better (closer) model consensus over the next day or two; That along with NHC's typically solid 5 day track forecast should really sharpen reasonable risk potential.

[NDG]

If the 12z Euro was to be correct this would be a perfect UL set up for a strengthening storm over the NW Bahamas.

[NDG]

Definitely not a good support by its ensembles on the 12z Euro run.

[skyline385]

Definitely not a good support by its ensembles on the 12z Euro run.

Ensembles tend to lag behind the operational run for some reason not sure why that is the case. We will probably find out at 0Z if this run was just a fluke or not…


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[LarryWx]

Definitely not a good support by its ensembles on the 12z Euro run.

https://i.imgur.com/sUQJwMy.png

12Z EPS implies ~30% risk of a CONUS TS+ landfall based on ~15 TS+ members landfalling there.

[Spacecoast]

Superensemble (Euro operational+ensembles, GFS operational+ensembles, CMC operational+mean, UKMET, consensus aides TVCN,TVCA, and official NHC tracks).White line is consensus for all...

[chaser1]

Superensemble (Euro operational+ensembles, GFS operational+ensembles, CMC operational+mean, UKMET, consensus aides TVCN,TVCA, and official NHC tracks).White line is consensus for all...

https://i.ibb.co/mzQYQwz/ccL.jpg

Two questions:
What is the average Super Ensemble 120 hr. margin of error?
Where does one even get access to the FSU Super ensemble?

[toad strangler]

Just like when Earl, if Fiona stays weak longer and or a track over Hispaniola a more westward track, a stronger Fiona which avoids Hispaniola like the GFS shows it will feel the short waves passing over the NE US.
Given how well the GFS did with Earl in almost this same set up I am leaning more towards the GFS despite the GFS failing miserable with Fiona's cyclogenesis.
But since we are talking past 120 hrs anything is still possible, the Euro and CMC could still be right.

Just last week or very recently anyway, wxman57 was talking about the GFS being on crack in a few posts. It’s a what have you done for me lately world for sure lol.

[Spacecoast]

Superensemble (Euro operational+ensembles, GFS operational+ensembles, CMC operational+mean, UKMET, consensus aides TVCN,TVCA, and official NHC tracks).White line is consensus for all...

https://i.ibb.co/mzQYQwz/ccL.jpg

Two questions:
What is the average Super Ensemble 120 hr. margin of error?
Where does one even get access to the FSU Super ensemble?

To avoid confusion with the FSU super-ensemble, I shouldn't have labeled these plot super-ensemble. I generated these from Tropical Atlantic site.

Tropical Atlantic also will give track errors for any opertional, or ensemble member here: http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2022&storm=07&display=model_error
120hour track errors for Earl ranged from 180-200nm for GEFS members, and 200-350nm for ECENS members. The Conensus aides (TVCA,TVCN) always seem to be the most accurate.

Tomer Burg also has a similar 'super-ensemble' plot here:http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/., but delayed by many hours.

The FSU esembles (FSSE) are not available to the public, although I see an option to display it here: https://products.hfip.org/nhc-display/

[skyline385]

Interesting bit here on the spread between models correlating to wind shear

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1570493821527683073

[ronjon]

The large spread on the models is related to the storms predicted strength and forward speed. Judging by satellite appearance we have a naked LLC out running the main convective mass by a full degree of longitude due to strong westerly shear. This suggests to me, at least for now, the global models predicting a weaker storm are verifying.

[LarryWx]

Happy Hour GFS is way west vs 12Z!