ATL: FIONA - Models

[tolakram]

Complete 12Z Euro

[skyline385]

Pretty much what the happy hour GFS just did

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1570532145634103298

[sma10]

Taken verbatim it looks to me like the GFS actually dissipates Fiona south of the islands but regenerates in the Bahamas. Tbh, you can probably say the same about the Euro run as well.

I think what we are learning today is that models are recognizing that Fiona now (and likely for the next few days) is a bit of a mess. IOW, I wouldn't bet on the HWRF/ICON big storm idea near PR.

[skyline385]

Something to keep in mind regarding the 18Z ensemble jump

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1570544354347085827

[sma10]

Something to keep in mind regarding the 18Z ensemble jump

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1570544354347085827?s=20&t=d8K2znJEeQ7efupmMLL7XA

Yes you can see the enormous SW shift in the 18z GEFS , which is basically a total abandonment of short term strengthening

[aspen]

18z GFS would turn Cape Hatteras into Cape Hatterwas. While a Cat 4 into NC is not super likely, this run did showcase the potential threat of a more westward Fiona that recurves into the Bahamas and off the SEUS coast, and survives Hispaniola.

[skyline385]

Interesting that this run may have had some recon data

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1570546177942360065

[Iceresistance]

Most 18z GEFS members have Fiona dissipating over Hispaniola.

[sma10]

Most 18z GEFS members have Fiona dissipating over Hispaniola.

Total dissipation is yet another poss outcome, based on the ensembles. Also, not so crazy, the Yucatan is still in play

[LarryWx]

Per NHC, Fiona dropped another 0.2 of latitude between the 5PM (AST) and 8PM positions, which is south of the NHC track. It is now down to 16.1N vs 16.6N at the 11AM position. Per NHC 11AM track, Fiona was forecasted to now be at 16.6N. So, it is now 35 miles south of where the 11AM track had it for now.

[skyline385]

HMON similar to GFS/CMC/Euro, smashes into DR then comes out South of it.

[SFLcane]

[sma10]

Per NHC, Fiona dropped another 0.2 of latitude between the 5PM (AST) and 8PM positions, which is south of the NHC track. It is now down to 16.1N vs 16.6N at the 11AM position.

Based on what you are seeing with the ensembles, are there members that do not interact at all with Hisp, and go completely south of the island? What do those tracks look like ... do they hook north thru Cuba or continue on to the Yucatan?

[SFLcane]

Per NHC, Fiona dropped another 0.2 of latitude between the 5PM (AST) and 8PM positions, which is south of the NHC track. It is now down to 16.1N vs 16.6N at the 11AM position. Per NHC 11AM track, Fiona was forecasted to now be at 16.6N. So, it is now 35 miles south of where the 11AM track had it for now.

Vortex might be decoupling.

[LarryWx]

Per NHC, Fiona dropped another 0.2 of latitude between the 5PM (AST) and 8PM positions, which is south of the NHC track. It is now down to 16.1N vs 16.6N at the 11AM position.

Based on what you are seeing with the ensembles, are there members that do not interact at all with Hisp, and go completely south of the island? What do those tracks look like ... do they hook north thru Cuba or continue on to the Yucatan?

Mainly Cuba.

[aspen]

How this interacts with or moves relative to Hispaniola is going to be crucial. The HMON is a little further south and slams Fiona right into the mountains, obliterating it. The HWRF is slightly further north and has landfall in PR, but slides just off the coast of the DR and remains intact as it reaches the nearly 30C SSTs north of the Greater Antilles. There’s also a chance for Fiona’s Hispaniola landfall forcing the center to relocate to the north off the coast, like what happened with Isaias. The 18z GFS showed an extreme example of what might happen if an intact (or mostly intact) Fiona makes it into that region.

[NDG]

18z Euro through 84 hrs, making landfall just south of Punta Cana DR.

[Nimbus]

Per NHC, Fiona dropped another 0.2 of latitude between the 5PM (AST) and 8PM positions, which is south of the NHC track. It is now down to 16.1N vs 16.6N at the 11AM position. Per NHC 11AM track, Fiona was forecasted to now be at 16.6N. So, it is now 35 miles south of where the 11AM track had it for now.

Some of the models and ensemble members are starting to favor a track off the south coast of Hispaniola.
12Z Euro ran the storm over both Hispaniola and Cuba before an east coast Florida landfall which might not be too devastating for Florida but that was a run I saw a couple days ago.

[skyline385]

0Z early guidance, looks like a significant shift westwards

[Spacecoast]

Trends...
ECMF operational trending W

GFS has been bouncing around (18z not plotted yet)

TVCN trended E before trending W

EC ensemble mean...


The ensemble means (both EEMN, and AEMN) have been more consistent, and have been showing westward trend earlier than the deterministic(s).